Abstract: This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.
IEO2005 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. Projections in IEO2005 are displayed according to three basic country groupings. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2005 projections. The time frame for historical data begins with 1970 and extends to 2002, providing a 32-year historical view of energy demand, and the projections extend to 2025, providing a 23-year forecast period. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy forecast. The two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for regional gross domestic product (GDP) than assumed in the reference case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international energy projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy and Economic Outlook.”
New to this report are regional projections of end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. Chapter 2 reviews worldwide forecasts for end-use sector energy consumption. Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—are presented in Chapters 3, 4, and 5, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 6 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources—and presents forecasts of world installed generating capacity, which are new to this year’s report. Finally, Chapter 7 discusses the outlook for global carbon dioxide emissions. With the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol on February 16, 2005, this year’s outlook includes a Kyoto Protocol scenario, which is also presented in Chapter 7.