Gulf Research Center

will hold the Workshop in Conjunction with GRC’s Second Annual Conference entitled:

” The Future of GCC-US Relations: Post-US Presidential Elections”

 5 - 6 January, 2005

The Grand Hyatt Hotel, Dubai
 

Introduction:

The attacks of September 11, 2001, the subsequent US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime signified a watershed in US/GCC relations with urgent ramifications for the Middle East region. As a result, the GCC states are faced with a critical period in terms of balancing the new dynamics of foreign strategic interests and internal security issues, reflected in the growing discontent of its people and in the region as a whole, against the unilateral and perceived ideological thrust of the Bush Administration’s foreign policy.

More specifically for the GCC states, the rapid developments in US foreign policy over the last four years have forced important questions to the forefront of the political debate including the nature of future US-GCC relations, the place of the GCC States in a developing US strategic framework, the impact of the US determination to seek political change in the region, and the role played by economic forces in a high oil price environment. The re-election of George W. Bush in November 2004 has undoubtedly affected each of these central issues. The GCC countries must develop and present a common policy approach to the US with regards to energy, security, democratic development, the security vacuum in Iraq and the now critical emerging dynamics with Iran on the nuclear issue.

In light of these developments, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is hosting a workshop, organized in conjunction with GRC’s second annual conference and the presentation of the annual report “The Gulf in the Year 2004”, in order to take an in-depth look at the role and policies of the United States with regard to the Gulf region, in particular its objectives, its geo-political and geo-strategic context, as well as the broader implications for the regional environment. Specific emphasis will be given to the shifts that have occurred over the past year in light of events in Iraq and the continuing US “war on terrorism.”

The conference comes at a particularly apt time. It is our intention to put forward a first assessment on the key strategic parameters of a future US Gulf policy under a second term of the Bush presidency. Key considerations include the important question of whether a second Bush term will be based on the policies outlined in the first, or whether his administration will differentiate their foreign policy approach.

Objectives of the Workshop:

• To assess the stated and intended policies of the Bush administration for
   the Gulf region in order to understand the concerns and aims of both the
   US and Gulf countries over the next four years; 

• To discuss the approach that the Bush administration will likely take in
   terms of the US Greater Middle East Partnership initiatives and to what
   degree a more sustained push for political liberalization and reform
   measures can be expected;

• To analyze whether the transformation in GCC-US relations from the
   beginning of the Bush administration in 2000 are likely to continue and to
   determine the implications of such a course, in particular as far as the war
   on terrorism is concerned;

• To focus on the possible scenarios and outcomes over the coming years as
   far as Iraq is concerned and place these assessments within the overall
   strategic framework for the region and the implications for GCC security;
• To assess the developments of US/Iran relations and the potential
   ramifications for Gulf stability;

• To analyze how economic developments in the energy sector are likely to
   impact the overall relationship;

• To define common areas of interests in which the GCC States and the US
   can cooperate together as a means to stabilize the security environment in
   the Gulf region;

• To discuss what the policy of the GCC States towards the United States
   should be in order to formulate and present a cohesive and unified position
   on the above issues.

Also see the Research Program: GCC Relations with US