Commentary & Analysis

In 2018, the International Decade for Action on "Water for Sustainable Development" (2018– 2028) was launched as a critical strategic framework for addressing the growing global water crisis. The call for action itself underlined that the prevalence of international water challenges and conflicts poses both an existential threat to stated goals and a primary catalyst for much-needed "Water for Peace" initiatives.

Indeed, water-related challenges and conflicts have emerged as significant "threat multipliers" to sustainable development efforts. Conflicts over water are viewed by the UN as major obstacles to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6). Unpredictable water supplies due to conflict and climate change significantly constrain socio-economic progress. As a result, the Water Decade has effectively become a race against time to prevent devastating global effects.

At the same time, the international call is one for integrated governance: The challenges of the Water Decade emphasize that water cannot be managed in "silos." The conflict-ridden reality of transboundary basins--such as the Nile or the Mekong--has forced a shift toward system-wide strategies that link water management with regional stability, food security, and human rights.

The Water Decade highlights the vulnerability of water infrastructure during times of sociopolitical instability. As a result, protecting and restoring ecosystems and physical facilities is now a prioritized objective to ensure "equitable access" even in fragile regions.

There is no doubt that the Water Decade has driven incremental improvements in global water and sanitation access, though billions remain unserved. Progress spans positive growth in basic WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) as highlighted at many international fora such as the UN Water Conference. However, global water security remains fragile, threatened by conflicts, climate change, pollution, and severe overuse.

Overall, the world has entered an era of "global water bankruptcy," where the extraction of freshwater from natural systems now exceeds its replenishment rate. This intensifying crisis is rapidly emerging as a major driver of geopolitical tension. Nearly 40% of global transboundary river basins are projected to face water scarcity-induced conflicts by 2050.

Against this backdrop, this paper highlights key international water challenges, focusing on the relationship between water insecurity and conflicts in the MENA region. It then proposes a number of policy approaches to mitigate these escalating challenges.

Key International Water Challenges

Shifting weather patterns are intensifying both droughts and increasingly unpredictable floods, which rapidly deplete the freshwater sources that communities rely on. At the same time, untreated industrial waste, agricultural runoff, and inadequate sewage systems heavily pollute remaining water bodies, rendering them unsafe for human consumption and use. This degradation is worsened by a soaring global population and inefficient agricultural practices that consume water faster than nature can replenish it.

Geopolitical conflicts, civil wars, and transboundary water disputes also act as powerful accelerators of the global water crisis. As a result, billions of people face chronic water scarcity, which deepens global health disparities and threatens long-term food security. The main international water challenges that the world currently faces are:

• Physical and Economic Scarcity: Over 2.2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water. While physical scarcity is a lack of water, economic scarcity occurs when countries lack the infrastructure or wealth to utilize available resources.
• Agricultural Demand: Agriculture consumes roughly 70% of global freshwater withdrawals. Growing populations increase this demand, straining transboundary systems.
• Climate Change Impact: Rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns act as threat multipliers, intensifying droughts and floods that destabilize shared watersheds.
• Infrastructure Vulnerability: Desalination plants and dams are increasingly targeted or used as leverage in modern warfare, as seen in recent conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the USIsrael-Iran War.
• Water conflicts: Transboundary water systems—such as shared river basins and aquifers— are increasingly becoming flashpoints of political friction, as upstream nations construct mega-dams or divert flows to the detriment of downstream neighbors. This weaponization and politicization of water, combined with climate-induced droughts, displaces millions of people and deepens regional instability. Even within the same country, it makes peaceful, collaborative water management exceptionally difficult to achieve.

Water in the MENA Region

In an arid region like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the lack of freshwater resources combined with competition over transboundary water resources, political tensions, and armed conflicts has already become a major source of instability.

According to the United Nationsiv, MENA is one of the most water-scarce regions globally, with many countries approaching or exceeding water stress thresholds, as shown in Table 1. Furthermore, mega-trends such as climate change, urbanization, and changing lifestyles have significantly increased water demand across the region, placing additional pressure on already fragile water systems.

Shared Underground Water Resources

Typically, disproportionate attention is given to surface water resources, but the MENA region, and specifically the GCC countries, largely rely on shared groundwater resources. At the time of writing, no multilateral agreement exists to govern shared underground water resources in the region. In West Asia, total renewable groundwater resources are estimated at 15.5 bcm.vi Jordan, Palestine, Yemen, and the six GCC countries rely on renewable groundwater sources. However, these are supplemented by extensive non-renewable groundwater reserves and, particularly in the GCC, desalinated water sources.

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) no. 6

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 call to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all” is not on track to be met in the MENA region by the 2030 deadline. Progress on key targets is insufficient, with the most water-stressed region facing the highest levels of water insecurity in the world, alongside mounting challenges such as climate change impacts, unsustainable water use, infrastructure gaps, financial constraints, and poor governance. According to the UN 2023 SDG Report,viii without intensified efforts, investments, and good governance, the MENA region will be unable to fully meet SDG 6 by 2030.

Water Cooperation and Hydropolitics

Transboundary water management interacts with energy and food security through a complex interplay among resource allocation, infrastructure, ecological factors, and political dynamics. The need for water for irrigation (food security) and for hydropower (energy security) often creates competition among riparian states. Coordinated management is necessary to balance these competing demands and ensure the sustainable management and use of shared water resources.

Water resources in the MENA region are unevenly distributed and under immense pressure. Approximately two-thirds--over 60%--of the Arab world's surface water supplies are transboundary, necessitating regional cooperation for human and economic development.

Ineffective transboundary governance exacerbates water scarcity, causing agricultural vulnerability for downstream countries. The inability to meet domestic food production needs forces many MENA countries to rely heavily on global food imports. Effective management is thus crucial for balancing energy and food security demands across the region's shared basins Long-standing regional political instability has hindered effective cooperation on shared water resources as security considerations take precedence. Peace is, therefore, in most cases, a precondition for cooperation between countries in any field, especially for sharing an essential resource.

The inverse is also true: depleted, polluted, and degraded transboundary water supplies themselves have the potential to cause social unrest, triggering conflicts within and between countries. Hydropolitics, the strategic use and control of water as a political tool, is a key feature of the region's geopolitical landscape. Upstream countries often exploit their geographic location to gain influence, while downstream countries have historically used economic or military force to protect their interests. The desire for water dominance can lead to either cooperation or conflict, depending on the strategies employed and the shifting balance of power.

The Nile Basin Case -the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-

There is a long-standing dispute among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan regarding the use of Nile waters, representing one of the most complex and potentially destabilizing transboundary water issues in the region. The core of the conflict lies in the clash between Ethiopia's developmental aspirations and the historical water rights of Egypt and Sudan.

Despite numerous rounds of negotiations, mediated by entities such as the African Union, a comprehensive, legally binding agreement remains elusive. Ethiopia has proceeded with the unilateral filling and operation of the dam's reservoir, leading to ongoing diplomatic tensions and accusations by Egypt and Sudan that it is violating international law.x On paper, there is enough water in the Nile basin for all countries and all uses. It is, however, a matter of political will to reach a shared vision and strategy for how best to utilize the available water resources.

The Tigris–Euphrates Case

Tigris–Euphrates tensions emerge from a significant and ongoing transboundary water conflict in the Middle East, primarily between upstream riparian Turkey and the downstream nations of Syria and Iraq. The core of the dispute centers on Turkey's large-scale water development projects in the rivers' headwaters, specifically the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). Unpredictable water flows from rivers like the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates negatively impact agriculture by causing floods and droughts that reduce crop yields, which in turn raises food prices.

Despite numerous bilateral and multilateral negotiations since the mid-20th century, a legally binding comprehensive agreement for the equitable sharing of the rivers' waters has not been reachedxi. The lack of a formalized cooperative framework, exacerbated by political instability, civil conflict in Syria and Iraq, and climate change, has left the conflict unresolved.

GCC-Shared Groundwater Resources

The primary natural conventional water resource in the GCC is groundwater, with limited supply, along with the deep, non-renewable fossil aquifers that constitute the bulk of the resource. The region shares several major aquifer systems, including the Saq, Tabuk, Wajid, Minjur-Dhruma, Wasia-Biyadh, Um Er Radhuma, and Dammam.

Despite the strategic importance of these shared groundwater resources, there is no agreement governing their utilization and management. This institutional gap leaves the region highly vulnerable to potential conflicts over climate change impacts, water depletion, and/or pollution. Groundwater depletion in the GCC countries severely impacts long-term food production and livelihood resilience by increasing extraction costs, reducing crop yields, and causing soil degradation. As a result, these states are increasingly dependent on imported food supplies, exposing them to additional economic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

While the political landscape in the Middle East and North Africa often complicates transboundary water management, there are many avenues for cooperation.

Water Diplomacy

International water law offers some guidance for the common management of shared water resources. However, legal mechanisms alone cannot solve all shared water resource issues. A full resolution calls for water diplomacy to bridge legal and political gaps and ensure that all riparian countries can benefit from their shared water resources.

Water diplomacy is an important tool for preventing conflict and promoting cooperation. It can foster dialogue, promote stability, and advance peace by governing shared water resources. It also plays a central role in conflict prevention and resolution, sustainable water management, and improved regional integration in areas where water scarcity increasingly intersects with broader geopolitical tensions.

Nexus Approach

Adopting the water-energy-food-climate nexus approach enables countries to address interconnected challenges holistically. For example, the projects supported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) aim to help countries in the Middle East and North Africa develop water strategies that are resilient to climate change.

Improved Water Governance

Ironically, there are no basin-wide agreements on shared water resources in the MENA region. Existing bilateral agreements govern only surface water resources and center mainly on water allocation. It is of the utmost importance to have comprehensive bilateral or multilateral agreements that focus on the sustainable management of these water resources (surface and underground) for the benefit of all riparian countries.

Integrated Water Resource Management

Water cooperation in MENA would also help in implementing Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) practices on a basin-wide scale. Cooperation in water management demands that all countries and or stakeholders in the MENA region share a common understanding of the needs, priorities, and options to take concrete steps towards solutions.

Flexible Agreements to Address Climate Change

New water-sharing agreements must account for climate change impacts, such as reduced rainfall and increased water scarcity. International funding can encourage countries to cooperate toward more equitable and robust agreements that address both water and climate crises.

Regional Organizations

None of the regional organizations currently engaged in water governance has proven effective at managing tensions over shared water resources between MENA countries and their neighbors. However, regional organizations such as UN-ESCWA, GCC, and Arab League are well-positioned to play a more meaningful role in improving regional water resources, given their political influence and technical expertise.

A Potential Role for the GCC Countries

The GCC, either as a bloc or as individual states, could consider supporting regional water cooperation through their foreign policies by:

• Acting as a mediator for water diplomacy activities among other countries of the region;
• Hosting annual meetings for riparian countries regarding the region’s key transboundary water resources;
• Helping in establishing and/or hosting joint technical secretariats for shared water resources management.

There is no doubt that in a water-scarce region like the MENA, cooperation over shared resources is essential for promoting broader peaceful cooperation. There is ample scope for cooperation on shared water resources, including data and monitoring, joint water research, and joint water infrastructure projects.

More sustainable management of common water resources can also help achieve stability in the region, indirectly reducing the number of refugees and extremists. Hopefully, this will finally lead to the realization of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 6 in the MENA region and help support peace and stability throughout the region.

Conclusion

Water issues in the MENA region should serve as a real incentive for countries there to cooperate on water resource utilization. In addition, mega-trends such as climate change, urbanization, and changing lifestyles can also serve as an impetus for efforts to jointly manage shared water resources to meet growing water needs amid increasing scarcity.

The transboundary water dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa represent a complex interplay of politics, hydrology, and development. While the potential for conflict remains, particularly in river basins, the increasing pressures of climate change and population growth also provide powerful incentives for cooperation. By prioritizing water diplomacy, embracing integrated resource management, and establishing climate-resilient agreements, the region can transform water from a source of geopolitical contention into a catalyst for stability and shared prosperity.

Dr. Mohamed Abdelraouf is the Director of the Environmental Security and Sustainability Research Program at the Gulf Research Center.