On the sidelines of the GCC-ASEAN Summit, scheduled to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 20, 2023, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) organized a workshop entitled (Relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and ASEAN countries)
Dr. Abdulaziz participated in Session 1 of Tafahum 2nd Annual Conference: The Path Towards a Regional Security Process for WAAP Region: Obstacles and Opportunities at the end of 2020
The second workshop for WG1 was a hybrid event entitled 'From Shared Challenges to Joint Venture: How the Energy Market and Entrepreneurial Initiatives have been Impacted by and Emerge from the COVID-19 Pandemic". This workshop focused on the ongoing economic transformation and energy diversification in conjunction with the COVID-19 pandemic
This is the second workshop of the Tafahum WG2 "Environmental Issues and Climate Change in WAAP", which was held as a semi-virtual event on 22-23 September 2020 in Bonn, Germany. This working group was in cooperation with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Two key topics were addressed. The first session discussed the latest developments of COVID-19, its impact on all countries of the region as well as its repercussions for environmental issues, in addition, the discussions also focused on the interconnectivity of environmental and health challenges and how to approach this nexus. The second session was dedicated to the topic of water security. water management as key challenges in the region and governance.
Dr. Abdulaziz, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center will be speaking at the e-Policy Circle 12 organised by the Beirut Institute on the theme of 'Stability Redefined' on Wednesday July 22, 2020 2:00pm GMT http://www.beirutinstitute.org/
The first virtual roundtable in the Tafahum Working Group 1 will focus on economic transformations and questions of energy diversification in conjunction with Covid-19 pandemic in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula
The third Virtual Roundtable for the Tafahum peoject, focusing on the interrelations between COVID-19 and climate change & ways of boosting regional cooperation on measures to help curb severe effects of climate change
The first Virtual Roundtable for the Tafahum project on the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the regional order
This is the second session of the Working Group 5. This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Reconstruction Efforts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. This workshop will look at the need for a regional stability paradigm and the importance of the role of education for post-conflict reconciliation
This is the second session of the Working Group 3. This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Counter-Terrorism and Security Sector Reform. This workshop will look on the concept of a regional security paradigm, as an initial step towards more effective regional integration
This closed seminar held under Chatham House Rule, looked at Austria’s relations with the GCC countries and especially Saudi Arabia, including diplomatic relations, economic relations and security and defense cooperation. In addition, speakers gave an overview of the various international organizations headquartered in Vienna that focus on international nuclear security and the member country dynamics within those organizations especially as they relate to the Gulf countries.
This is the second session of the Working Group 4. This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Media Narratives and Discursive Integration in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula. This workshop will look at the discussions on how to develop education and training in media literacy and secondly look into whether or not (and how) such a regional media comfort zone can be created
This closed seminar held under Chatham House Rule, looked at the United Kingdom’s relations with the GCC countries and especially Saudi Arabia, including diplomatic relations, economic relations and security and defense cooperation. In addition, speakers gave an overview of the role of UK media in influencing domestic and foreign policy and how those dynamics can influence its relations with Gulf countries. During the seminar discussions, participants had the opportunity to engage with senior policy officials and academics on these key issues.
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Security Sector Reform and Counter Terrorism. This workshop will try to examine the nexus between women and security through the lens of counter-terrorism. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Media Narrative and Discursive Integration. This workshop will appreciate the variety of media landscapes in the region to make better sense of public discourse and narratives on a national and regional level. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Reconstruction Efforts in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. This working group aims at developing a conceptual framework with concrete guiding principles for the reconstruction and reconciliation efforts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Environmental Issues and Climate Change. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Environmental Issues and Climate Change. This is the first session of this working group
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in collaboration with the Middle East Institute will be holding a workshop on the issue of “Yemen: Finding a Way Forward” on Monday July 17, 2017 at the Middle East Institute Office in Washington D.C.
This timely event comes at a time while prospects for ending the Yemen conflict face persisting political and security challenges and the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen perseveres despite international aid pledges.
The workshop will attempt to shed light on the status of the political process and negotiations to settle the conflict, on the current humanitarian situation inside the country and to discuss a forward-looking development agenda to be implemented both while the conflict continues and ones a resolution to the crisis is found.
The workshop is particularly meant to provide a forum from which key Yemeni experts and stakeholders can provide their perspectives on the issues defining the Yemeni situation and to be able to engage with a wider audience on the prospects for conflict resolution mechanisms.
Five years have passed since the initial uprising against the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, the poorest nation in the Middle East. The failed political transition of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in 2011 has turned the state of Yemen into an arena of power struggles amongst various factions fighting for control. Yemen now suffers devastating humanitarian conditions, including 2000 deaths and counting, around one million displaced, and over 12 million on the brink of famine with no access to healthcare as political solutions over the years to resolve the conflict have proven to be nearly impossible. Therefore, ending the war in Yemen is vital and needs to become the international community’s priority for not only will it be for the future of Yemen’s own security and stability, but for that of the entire region, as conflict spillover remains to be a serious threat to neighboring countries.
It is in this context, throughout the next several months, the Gulf Research Center will be hosting a series of workshops in the United States and Europe, involving major stakeholders in the conflict, which will result in the publication of seminar reports on the best way forward to bring peace and security to Yemen. In order for workshops to be comprehensive of the multidimensional nature of the conflict, each event will address a specific theme or “layer” of the conflict, therefore ensuring that the debates are focused and lead to tangible conclusions and recommendations.
Over the years, the Gulf Research Center has been especially active in research on Yemen, and this expertise, in addition to its unique position among other think tanks to bring a “Gulf” perspective to regional politics, make it especially relevant in putting forward solutions to the ongoing conflict in Yemen.
The Gulf Research Center and Chatham House hold workshop on GCC-UK Relations
With the regional Middle Eastern environment facing a period of unprecedented turbulence, the Gulf Research Center and Chatham House held a two-day workshop in London on June 12 and 13 to explore the various dynamics of developments in the Middle East and the Gulf and the implications this holds for GCC-UK ties. While the UK and the GCC states can look back on a long period of close ties defined by many common interests, the discussion at the workshop pointed to the many new challenges that have emerged including the perception among the GCC states that the policies by the Western states including the UK have further exacerbated many of the regional crises. Participants agreed that mutual strategic interests still prevail, but there was also a sense from the GCC side that UK regional policy suffers from a degree of credibility and trust. The discussion further highlighted the fact that a return to some form of stability was an extremely complex undertaking and that one needed to look at regional issues from both a short- and long-term perspective.
The Gulf is experiencing significant new challenges to its security and to traditional thinking about its security policies. Some Gulf leaders fear a perceived reduction of American commitment to the region. The prospect of a negotiated agreement on Iran"s nuclear program has destabilized long-established security norms and practices. Syria"s war has become an arena for proxy competition between Iran and the Arab Gulf states, with significant risks of blowback from new jihadist groups and an expanding regional battlefield. The Arab uprisings have driven controversial new domestic and regional political initiatives to ensure regime stability within the Gulf. A newly assertive effort by some Gulf states to influence political outcomes in key regional countries such as Egypt has included support for its new military government and a broad campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, Gulf states have committed significant resources to these policies which could pose new challenges to fiscal security over the medium term. In response to these perceived new threats and opportunities, Gulf states have clashed with the United States and have considered new forms of regional integration and cooperation.
This workshop, organized in collaboration with The George Washington University and Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Doha, will bring together scholars from the United States, Europe and the Gulf, and comes at an important time to consider in depth the new security challenges and responses. The three panels held over the course of the day will look at the GCC and Iran"s Nuclear Program; Islamist Movements and Sectarianism; as well as Transnational and Human Security Issues.
Based on the event, there will also be a panel organized at MESA 2014 in Washington. Other deliverables will include several policy briefs, a roundtable report and a journal article.
The policy briefs resulting from the Venice meeting have been published and can be accessed here:
The Gulf Research Center and the Al-Ahram Center are hosting a workshop on the issues of Gulf states unity to be held in Cairo, Egypt. The workshop will bring together specialists and policy officials to look in-depth at the political, economic, security and defense aspects of Gulf integration and provide recommendations on how to operationalize the Gulf union concept. During the discussion, the various Arab views on Gulf integration will be elaborated on which in turn with inform the policy process. The workshop is part of a larger project the Gulf Research Center is conducting on the issue of GCC unity.
Energy trade always constituted a major chapter in EU-GCC relations. The EU has established new, ambitious targets for reduction of emissions by 2050, which envisage a substantial decline of the role of traditional fossil sources such as oil and gas. In parallel, the GCC countries have manifested growing concern for their own energy future and excessive dependence on fossil fuels, and have launched multiple initiatives for improving the uptake of clean energy solutions.
As part of the EU-funded public diplomacy project on “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC Relations”, EPU-NTUA in cooperation with the Gulf Research Center and Masdar Institute are organising a Renewable Energy Policy Experts’ workshop hosted in Masdar Institute, Abu Dhabi on November 26-27, 2013. The 2-day workshop is actively endorsed by the EU-GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK, an initiative created jointly by the EU and the GCC to catalyse cooperation among the two regions on clean energy topics of common interest.
Within this framework, the event aims to discuss at high policy level the potential for cooperation in the promotion of clean energy. This will encompass both opportunities for bilateral agreements in various areas as well as exploration of common positions (or debate of points of divergence) with respect to negotiations in multilateral fora.
The workshop is divided into five sessions focusing on:
• EU-GCC energy policy co-operation in the field of Renewables: Status and Prospects
• Promoting co-operation on Energy Efficiency & Demand Side Management
• EU-GCC co-operation potential in the field of Renewables: Technology and Research perspective
• EU-GCC co-operation for integration of Renewables in the Grid
• Promoting EU-GCC co-operation on Water and Power generation
Each session will be introduced by a background paper followed by moderated discussion among the participants. Limited selected experts are invited to contribute to this high level event, including academics and specialists, members of various research institutes and policy officials from both the EU and the GCC side. The workshop will result in a publication to be produced in early 2014.
Twenty-seven students from the six GCC countries took part in this training session organized by GRC in the framework of the project “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC relations” funded by the European Commission. The students from the GCC were selected according to their fields of studies, either international relations or politics studies, and for their interest in issues linked to the European Union. The group included undergraduate students, graduate students, and young professionals. Five students from Brussels were also selected for the program to give the GCC students a different viewpoint on EU issues and a better insight into student life in Europe. The schedule of the training was divided between lectures, informative sessions, meeting with professionals, and visits. The training session provided GCC students with the opportunity to acquire deeper knowledge about the EU as well as to develop direct contacts with students from Europe, EU professionals and academics.
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) together with the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) hosted the panel discussion on “Security Implications of the Arab Spring” as part of the 10th International Security Forum held from April 22 to 24, 2013 in Geneva, Switzerland. Dr. Christian Koch, Director of the GRC Foundation chaired the panel discussion with presentations from Prof. Bahgat Korany of the American University on Cairo; Prof. Mohammed-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Head of the Regional Capacity Development Program at GCSP; and Dr. Mustafa Alani, Senior Advisor and Director of the Security and Defense Research Program at the GRC. The panel pursued three main questions – what security issues have been raised by the ‘Arab Spring’; how are these challenges playing out in the region and how are they been addressed by the different actors; and what are the implications in this changing security scene for the region’s international partners. All speakers highlighted the fluid nature of the situation while focusing on the phenomenon of the weakened state which in turn is highlighting the potential of an open-ended period of volatility for the entire Middle East. The presentations were followed by a lively debate and a question and answer session.
“The Podcast and panel summary is available on the ISF web site www.isf2013.ch”
The first day of the workshop “Political Transformation in the Arab world and its relevance for EU-GCC relations” organized by the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE), the Gulf Research Center and the Gulf University for Science and Technology (GUST) under the Project “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC relations” funded by the European Commission, concluded on Sunday, March 3, 2013 at GUST University, Kuwait.
More than 50 persons attended the 3 sessions, each followed by discussions with the attendants. As an outcome: high level presentations, interventions of great interest, and heated but fruitful debates!
After a welcome introduction from Robert Cook (Vice President for Academic Affairs, GUST University), Richard Youngs (Director of FRIDE), Christian Koch (Director of Gulf Research Center Foundation) and Haila Al-Mekaimi (Center For Gulf Knowledge, Kuwait University), the discussions moved to in-depth assessment of the political development in the Gulf region and what the implications are for the European Union. Given that the EU follows events in the region closely and the EU parliament has passed resolutions on the situations in Bahrain and the UAE, one of the objectives of the workshop was to allow for an exchange of views and provide a perspective from the GCC states about the impact that the Arab transitions are having on their part of the world.
The first session dealing with the Geopolitical implications of the Arab uprisings was chaired by Richard Youngs with speakers N. Janardhan, a political analyst from the UAE and Mohamed Ghanem Alrumaihi from Kuwait University. The panel presented the diversity of the changes following the Arab uprisings, highlighting specifically the extreme complexity of the new situation as well as the resulting different implications. While there was agreement that the Gulf region has been impacted, there was a divergence of views on the degree that the geopolitical changes would force the GCC states to undertake their own reform effort in the near term. One participant mentioned that the GCC states were not facing an ‘Arab Spring’ but an ‘Oil Spring’. Much of the discussion also focused on the role of political Islam and what that means for the further developments impacting the Middle East.
The second session dealing with Domestic implications of the Arab uprisings was chaired by Kristian Coates Ulrichsen from the London School of Economics with speakers Prof. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla from the UAE and Hasan Al-Hasan, also from the LSE. The speakers explained how unlike other Arab countries, in the GCC there has been a strengthening of the status quo resulting in some change but also much stronger continuity. The monarchy system certainly has been challenged but they have also shown their resilience. Overall, there is a need to put developments in their broader context. To what degree the EU has handled the issue of human rights in a balanced way proved a serious point of debate.
The third session entitled Beyond identity politics: a role for civil society? was chaired by Jane Kinninmont of Chatham House with speakers Guido Steinberg of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin, Germany and Ahmed Al Omran of RiyadhBureau.com. The speakers presented the role and the evolution of islamist movements as part of the civil society, focusing on non-violent actors, transnationalism and Sunnite-Shiite sectarianism. The role of social media was also presented, through the example of their development in Saudi Arabia, as a tool to bypass the governmental restrictions regarding civil society organizations. Much of the discussion focused on the relationship between citizenship and entitlement and the impact this had had on the concept of national identity.
The workshop will continue on Monday, March 4 with the focus on the role of the youth in the Gulf and a wider discussion on what all of the developments mean for the relationship between the EU and the GCC
As part of the EU-sponsored project on "Promoting Deeper EU-GCC Relations" a 22-member group from the six GCC took part in a one-week training program on 'Understanding the Institutions and Policies of the EU and EU-GCC Relations.' The program is headed by the Gulf Research Center with the support of the Institute for European Studies at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and the Global Governance Institute. In addition to lectures on aspects of the EU, participants held meetings with members of the European Parliament, the European External Action Service and the European Social and Economic Committee.
Bringing together regional, security, and policy experts in order to assess the current situation in the Middle East, the Gulf Research Center, the Geneva Center for Security Policy and the Crown Center at Brandeis University are once again hosting a roundtable in Gstaad, Switzerland. During the meeting, an assessment of the Arab Revolutions, the overall geopolitical and regional dynamics as it pertains to the Levant, Turkey, the Arab-Israeli issue and the situation in Iraq, Iran and the Gulf region will be discussed. A summary of the proceedings will be published as part of the Geneva Papers of the GCSP. The meeting is by invitation only.
This event held with the Middle East Institute will include an examination of recent developments in the Gulf in the wake of the Arab Spring. The speakers will address the crises in Yemen and Bahrain, US-Gulf relations and the question of reform in the region.
Together with the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, the Gulf Research Center will be holding a panel discussion on the current situation in the Gulf region and the challenges for US policy. The session will be moderated by Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President and CEO of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations.
The Gulf Research Center will be holding a two-day roundtable discussion on the current situation in Yemen with a particular emphasis on how the current regional and international political situation will impact existing and future development trends in Yemen. The workshop will explore the different scenarios that could come into play when it comes to the future of Yemen, to analyze in-depth the various development implications involved and to explore the ways and means in which regional and international institutions and organizations can work together to target their assistance and to increase their effectiveness.
The workshop will take place on the sidelines of the 2011 Gulf Research Meeting from 7-8 July 2011 at the University of Cambridge, UK and is supported by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) GmbH, working on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The workshop will bring together specialists, policy officials and representative of donor agencies including numerous persons from the GCC states as well as from Yemen.
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) are holding a one-day workshop on “EU–GCC Relations and Global Economic Issues” in Brussels, Belgium. The event is being organized in the framework of the Al-Jisr project on EU-GCC Relations with the support of the European Commission. The workshop will bring together prominent economists and policy officials from both the EU and the GCC side as economic relations between the GCC and EU have been developing over a wide area of common interest, primarily defined within the context of a free trade agreement and economic diversification. The purpose of this workshop will be to analyze in more detail the dynamics of the global economic financial crisis, the related focus on currency issues, its impact on GCC economic integration as well as issues of international trade and financial regulation and how this impact the GCC-EU relationship. A particular focus will be on identifying areas in which the EU and the GCC can work together more closely and improve their coordination.
The
A third research project workshop on the challenge and potential of economic growth and diversification in the GCC. A team of specialized researchers from both regions will be constituted and given access to all resources in the hands of the project’s partners. Once again, the strategy to establish such partnerships will prove to be precious as the resources and expertise of each partner will be fully used. The research project workshop will deliver a number of integrated future scenarios to judge the region’s regional and international economic role as well as the shifting functions of state and business in it.
The Gulf Research Center and the Institute for Diplomatic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia began on Sunday, April 18th, 2009, a 3 day long Training Session on the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relations. The training session will focus on communicating basic facts about the EU, its history, policies and institutions. In addition to more specific issues between the two sides including political governance and dynamics as well as economic, trade and financial relations. Then conclude with recommendations for improving relations between the EU and GCC.
This workshop will be hosted and organized by Bertelsmann Stiftung in
This workshop within the framework of the Al-Jisr Project on EU-GCC Public Diplomacy and Outreach Activities will explore the following questions: Can the
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Nixon Center of Washington, D.C. is pleased to announce a workshop on November 11 and 12, 2009 on the subject of “China’s Growing Role in the Middle East: Implications for the Region and Beyond.” The workshop will take place in the GRC conference room in Dubai and bring together about 25 participants from the Gulf region, the China, India and the US. Relations between the Gulf region and China have taken on multiple dimensions in the past years and it is important and necessary to take a more in-depth look at the strategic implications of this developing relationship. In addition to economic and energy issues which certainly serve as a driver for closer ties, there are also political and security dimensions that must be considered. The purpose of this workshop is to explore in more detail the dynamics that define Gulf-China ties and to analyze the perspectives that are presenting themselves for both sides. The meeting is also part of a study on the growing role of the major Asian countries in the Middle East.
The workshop was organised by the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) and the Gulf Research Center under the Al Jisr Project will focus on the status of political reform in the GCC states in order to provide a better understanding of the transition process occurring in these states. With human rights an integral part of the EU’s Free Trade Area negotiations, a thorough understanding of the drivers promoting political reform and an objective assessment of the reform measures being out in place is essential in order to better guide policy decisions. Among the issues to be discussed in this workshop are the roles of the Gulf monarchies as drivers of political reform, the role of parliaments and local councils, the prospects for judicial reform, the development of civil society, and the interaction between energy dynamics and political reform. A final discussion will look at how the political reform debate impacts on the overall GCC-EU relationship.
The Gulf Research Center, in association with the Center for International and Regional Studies at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar, organized the second research workshop of the "EU-GCC Al-Jisr Project on Public Diplomacy and Outreach devoted to the European Union and EU-GCC Relations".
This conference will consider the role of nuclear weapons in sustaining or undermining the security of the Gulf region. Its focus is on three linked concepts: extended deterrence, security guarantees, and nuclear proliferation. Its aim is to consider what kinds of conditions will be required to insure that extended deterrence and security guarantees continue to promote regional stability in and around the Gulf, as they have (for the most part) in the past; and conversely, what can be done to avert nuclear proliferation among the Gulf states and their immediate neighbors, as well as among extremist groups that seek to operate there.
The idea of extended deterrence is a product of the early Cold War. It reflected the shared concern of the nuclear Superpowers that the spread of nuclear weapons would complicate their relationship with each other, and make it more dangerous. Each accordingly declared itself willing to extend the protection of its nuclear arsenal to allies and clients. The widespread acceptance of this idea may seem surprising, to the extent that its credibility depended on the willingness of non-nuclear states to believe that their protector would expose itself to potentially mortal perils on their behalf. Nevertheless, it was widely believed that neither of the
Extended deterrence was supported by a system of security guarantees, most of which were of a familiar and traditional kind: a declared willingness by states to cooperate in each other’s defense, and to fight side-by-side in given circumstances. In the nuclear era, however, a new form of guarantee was introduced, one that was extended not merely to friends but to rivals and adversaries as well. States known to possess nuclear weapons promised not to employ them against any that did not, in exchange for a countervailing promise that states without nuclear weapons would not attempt to obtain them. This exchange of promises lies at the heart of the nuclear non-proliferation regime established in 1968.
Nevertheless, nuclear proliferation remains a major threat to stability in the
This conference seeks to explore the logic and functioning of extended nuclear deterrence and associated security guarantees in the
Such intervention, needless to say, would be profoundly destabilizing for the rest of the Gulf. So too would Iranian success.
The politics of nuclear weapons are also influenced by the politics of nuclear energy. Its attraction to states in the Gulf is a source of suspicion for some observers, who fear that such projects, particularly when conducted by states floating on an ocean of oil, can only be a mask for weapons development. Historically the connection between nuclear energy and weapons proliferation is not strong—though the fact that the Iranians have explained their own interest in nuclear technology in terms of a desire for nuclear energy has muddied the water in this regard. A number of
Attitudes toward nuclear weapons among
Israel is, in any case, but one of three nuclear-armed states—along with India and Pakistan—that have slipped the leash of the Cold War non-proliferation regime, and whose proximity to the Gulf necessarily influences attitudes toward nuclear weapons there. The picture is further complicated by the fact that all three of these governments enjoy warm relations with the United States—a source of reassurance, perhaps, but one that also casts doubt on America’s ability to extend the deterrent effects of its own nuclear arsenal elsewhere in the region, should that become necessary. It also suggests, somewhat ironically, that successful proliferators may have less to fear from the
Since the end of the Second World War protection from external threats in the Gulf region, for practical purposes, has been assured by the major oil-consuming states in the West. Their willingness to extend their military protection to the region was driven by their hunger for energy, and their determination to deprive the Soviets of influence and access there. The second of these motives has disappeared; though
The aim of this conference is to consider how, and how far, the logic and practice of extended nuclear deterrence and multilateral and bi-lateral security guarantees can be adapted to address current and future threats to stability in the Gulf. Military strategies calculated to ward off outsiders may not be readily applicable to the maintenance of regional stability, nor to containing rising regional powers like
Relations between the Gulf region and
As part of the Al-Jisr project on GCC-EU Public Diplomacy and Outreach Activities, the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University and the Gulf Research Center will hold a two-day conference entitled: “The EU and the GCC: Challenges and Prospects under the Swedish Presidency of the EU” to be held in Lund, Sweden from June 8th to 9th, 2009. The meeting will bring together around 30 academics and government representatives from
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center on the occasion of the 12th Kronberg Middle East talks of the Bertelsmann Foundation and held in Riyadh with the cooperation of the Institute of Diplomatic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia and the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies launched the Arabic version of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI).The BTI was translated from English and published in Arabic by the Gulf Research Center. The BTI is a bi-annual global ranking that measures and compares transformation processes worldwide on the basis of detailed country reports. The BTI is unique in the sense that is a qualitative rather than a purely quantitative assessment of how countries have progressed vis-à-vis one another in a number of categories. Speaking at the event that launched the Arabic version, Mr. Sager emphasized that the
Institutional relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and the European Union have to be filled with life by deepening cooperation between the people and institutions of both regions. In the context of the Al-Jisr project on GCC-EU Public Diplomacy and Outreach, the
of special relevance to current affairs. The composition of the workshop participants will be balanced among EU and GCC representatives. Finally, tailor made dissemination activities will ensure that the widespread diffusion of the workshop outcomes will reach not only high level policy makers, but also academicians and key market actors from GCC and EU.
Nowadays, global warming poses certain constraints to energy usage with direct impacts on the international economic activity. In this respect, the determination of prospects and opportunities for the development of a sustainable energy economy is of outmost importance in order to pass from the current carbon constrained economy to new sustainable development paths.
In particular, the key shared interest on the above issues ranks high on the EU policy agenda and without a doubt the relevant cooperation with GCC Countries could be further developed. While there is a widespread view that the GCC region participates in the world energy scene through its vast oil and gas reserves, with little concern for environmental impact and with little incentive to invest in alternative sources of energy, there is a changing dynamic. Indeed, the use and development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), Rational Use of Energy (RUE) as well as CO2 Capture and Sequestration could make a significant contribution to improving environmental protection and to guarantying continuation of oil supplies in conditions of stability and security. The GCC region offers massive business potential for national, regional and international companies involved in the power generation, lighting and RES energy industries. The potential development of RES in the GCC region would have mutual benefits for both the EU and the GCC countries. In this framework, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently committed large funds to the climate fund from the last UN conference in Bali.
Based on the above, the current workshop envisions combining policy and technical expertise for the discussion of policy implications and opportunities of greater collaboration, in what has to be seen as a future green energy market. The final aim of the workshop is to further enhance the EU-GCC relations in key energy and climate change cooperation issues.
A first Al-Jisr research project workshop is the first in a series to look at the challenge and potential of economic growth and diversification in the GCC, including an analysis of how the benefits of the expected Free Trade Agreement (FTA) can best be reaped. The specific topics to be addressed within the framework of the larger research project are:
· the GCC economies’ comparative strengths and weaknesses related to the labour market, unemployment and migration; female participation in the economy; and education and economic development.
· changes in the Gulf business environment with respect to privatisation and government ownership, business regulation, and the strengths and weaknesses of the private sector, as measured by global indicators.
· the potential for economic diversification (downstream integration into refining, petrochemicals and other energy-intensive industries and its implications for EU industry and the global environment; the competitiveness of Gulf industry outside of the above-mentioned sectors; and the potential for specialisation in other services, including tourism).
· domestic energy consumption in the GCC countries including domestic pricing of various hydrocarbon and the recent trends towards acquiring a nuclear power generation component.
· the Gulf financial sector, focusing on trends of regulatory change, financial diversification, regional and international consolidation of banking intermediaries, the Gulf’s potential as regional and global hub, and the behaviour and future of the GCC’s Sovereign Wealth Funds.
· GCC monetary unification, discussing future scenarios of exchange rate policy, currency pegs and monetary policy.
· the Gulf region’s future position in the global economic context, with special reference to relations with the other Asian countries, with the European Union, the Mediterranean Arab countries, Iraq and Yemen.
On the basis of these sectoral and institutional lines of research, the project aims to arrive at a number of integrated future scenarios to judge the region’s regional and international economic role as well as the shifting functions of state and business in it.
Experts’ views of the capabilities and the potential role of the private sector in promoting economic and political reform in the Arab world are sharply divergent. Some view the private sector as still being primarily subordinated to the government and depending on government expenditure or other forms of government protection to be able to achieve profit in business. It is pointed out that there is a lack of international competitiveness except in sectors, such as petrochemicals, which are formally privatized but in fact still closely controlled by government; a lack of transparency and openness to international investment; excessive dependence on government contracts or other business opportunities essentially influenced by government decisions and initiatives. A contrasting view has emphasized that the private sector in the Arab world has come a long way since its beginnings in the 1970s and has now acquired capabilities that it did not have in the past. Therefore, while the picture of a business sector subservient to the government might have been correct 30 or 40 years ago, it is no longer accurate today. Besides, many private business groups have also greatly increased their financial capabilities through international investment and are increasingly engaging in business that caters to open and fairly competitive markets. The declared strategy of Arab governments to increasingly rely on the private sector is opening further opportunities for private sector investment and growth, progressively tilting the balance in the equation.
Pointing to this development, the Gulf Research Center Foundation (GRCF) and the Arab Reform Initiative have launched a two-year research project entitled “The Role of the Private Sector in Promoting Economic and Political Reform,” to explore ways in which the Arab business community can contribute to the progress and modernization of the region. In a comparative analysis, several Arab countries, including the GCC states, are being assessed. The overarching aim of the project is to conduct research on the capabilities and attitudes of the private sector towards economic and political reform, opening the door to a more sophisticated understanding of the evolving reality. The active involvement and participation of the region’s business communities therefore is of crucial importance and constitutes an integral element in guiding the academic work.
The project got off to a start on January 4, 2009, with a workshop at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry followed by a meeting at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Nixon Center of Washington, D.C. will hold a workshop on November 12 and 13, 2008 on the subject of "Gulf-India relations." Relations between the Gulf region and
On November 2, 2008, Fihir Abuateeq, Dr. Eckart Woertz and Nathan Hodson of GRC gave a briefing at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) about an ongoing consultancy project about sustainable development and cluster based industrialization in the three governorates of Al Rabigh, Al Leith and Al Qunfudah. The workshop was attended by dignitaries and executives from the three regions and form institutions in Jeddah such as ministries and government agencies. It served to get input from various stakeholders in to the ongoing consultancy project, a final report will be released by January.
With relations between the Gulf region and East Asia expanding, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Henry L. Stimson Center of Washington, D.C., held a half-day workshop on October 9, 2008 to discuss the draft report of the National Intelligence Council entitled Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the center for mid-term and strategic thinking of the
The meeting included an introduction explaining the scope and context of the Global Trends 2025 report followed by a discussion of the overall approach, major trends and scenarios. The meeting then opened for a general discussion of specific issues of interest discussed in the report including the rise of emerging players, a new transnational agenda, the prospects for terrorism and conflict, the question of whether the international community would be up to the challenges that a shifting world presents, and role of the United States in a new multi-polar environment.
As part of the cooperation between the
The meeting on maritime issues is an open exploration of current realities and emerging concerns in the
The objective of this meeting is to closely analyze and promote topics that are of current mutual interest between the EU and the GCC. It comes at a critical time when the institutional relations between
Given the increased factors of demography and population growth, this meeting will focus on GCC Migration and its History: Demographics and countries of origin, changes in the GCC expatriate population since the 1980s including from neighboring Arab countries to Asian countries as well as an estimation of the future population composition in the GCC. There will also be a comparison with the migration and integration experience of the
Workshop in Cooperation with Kobe University"s Research Institute of Economics and Business Administration (RIEB), Japan
The Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE), the Gulf Research Centre (GRC) and EGMONT - the Royal Institute for International Relations are organizing a seminar to respond to the publication of the EU’s new energy security strategy and to debate those aspects of energy security related specifically to European foreign policies.
Rationale
During the last year, the Ukraine-Russia gas dispute, greater global competition for diminishing hydrocarbon resources and higher oil prices have jolted the European Union into debating the development of a comprehensive European Energy Policy. Europe"s increasing energy dependency, decreasing energy production and reliance on a small number of external suppliers have added to the urgency of these debates.
The Commission’s March 2006 Green Paper committed the EU to integrating energy issues more systematically into the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). It also promised that energy security would not compromise the EU’s commitment to promoting democracy and human rights. The Commission’s Strategic Energy Review published on 10 January 2007 further reinforced these commitments to a more effective energy security policy; this Review will now be debated by member state governments at the March 2007 EU summit.
In focusing on the foreign policy dimensions of energy security, our one day seminar will be framed around three broad issues:
a) Market versus geopolitical approaches:
Should competitive power-politics, expressed in bilateral deals/relationships with key suppliers prevail, or alternatively should key suppliers be incorporated into an international energy market? The seminar will explore this debate and the complex linkages between internal and external dimensions of energy security.
b) Can member state interests be reconciled and streamlined within a common European energy policy?
Member states currently pursue differing approaches to energy security. How can these different views be reconciled in one common energy policy? As the perception exists that energy security is one of the areas of greatest divergence and competition between national governments, it must be asked whether member states will really be willing to compromise enough to define a unified approach.
c) Will external energy policy act to the detriment of democratic development?
Are EU policies of democracy promotion becoming weaker in states that are either energy producers or energy transit countries? Many certainly judge that new energy security imperatives sound the death knell for democracy promotion. On the other hand, would it be preferable to pressure producer countries for improvements in governance so as to achieve a more favourable and stable investment climate in which IOC’s could operate? Is this feasible given the recent trend towards greater resource nationalism?
The relationship between the member states of the European Union (EU) and those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is multifaceted and has over the years taken on a number of increasing dimensions. In light of recent security issues such as those related to terrorism and the US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, ties between the EU and the GCC have also taken on a security component that up to this stage remains largely undefined and understudied. Yet, with the emergence of the European Security Strategy in December 2003 and other initiatives such as NATO’s Istanbul Cooperation Initiative unveiled in 2004, Europe itself is trying to define more concretely what a future European security role in the Gulf region could look like and to what degree Europe can assist the Gulf States from overcoming their perennial security problem. This debate features a number of salient issues including weapons trade and proliferation, terrorism, bi-lateral as well as multi-lateral security approaches to the region and the promotion of the soft security realm as a means to move towards a more comprehensive notion of the term security itself. This conference will bring together experts and analysts from Europe, the GCC States and “interested” other countries to illuminate the problem areas that Europe faces in the Gulf and to put the different approaches on the table into their proper context. Of specific concern will be how to move from the current still vague and largely theoretical notions of GCC-EU security cooperation into more policy-applicable and relevant approaches that build on past European experiences. The papers presented at the workshop will be published in an edited volume following the workshop’s conclusion.
The Geo-Economic Positioning of the GCC countries
Until the 1980s the position of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the international division of labour was clear: oil was exported and manufactured goods were imported, mainly from Europe and the USA. Nowadays the situation has changed. Although the importance of oil and gas revenues is still paramount, the GCC countries command an increasingly diversified economic structure with new sectors emerging in the fields of petrochemicals, utilities, services and tourism. They are the world market leader in polymer production and lay specific emphasis on the development of energy intensive industries like aluminium, steel and fertilizer plants. For theses industries they have to import now raw materials themselves from countries like Australia and South Africa. On the other hand the focus of their trading relations has shifted and moves eastwards. The USA only account for roughly 10% of imports nowadays (2004) while the European Union is contributing one third and the Asian countries about a quarter of overall imports. Thus, they have become the most important trading partners for the GCC, most notably Asia, which purchases about two thirds of GCC energy exports. How could these interdependences of foreign trade be mapped out in detail? How will the GCC countries react to these challenges? How do they position themselves in the WTO process and the ongoing negotiations of free trade agreements with the EU and the USA? Which chances and which threats emerge from the opening of their economies? Which sectors and companies will benefit (e.g. petrochemicals) and which will likely face difficulties in facing increased competition (e.g. agriculture, so far monopolistic telecoms, banks)? Will petrodollar recycling move away from simple buying of US treasuries and move towards strategic investments and other currencies like the Euro? And finally: is there a realignment of foreign policy discernible along the lines of geo-economic positioning?
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) will hold a joint workshop on Pakistan-Gulf Strategic Relations on March 8-9, 2007 in Islamabad. The aim of the workshop is to assess current strategic relations and forecast future trends in terms of the political, economic and security aspects of relations between Pakistan and the GCC States. There have been critical developments in these areas which not only impact inter-regional relations but also affect the political and economic environment within these states.
Pakistan’s geo-strategic position as well as its close and long-standing relations with the GCC States are an important factor in shaping their respective policies vis-à-vis other regional neighboring countries. For example, many states in South West Asia and Central Asia are keen on extending energy and trade links and developing crucial communication networks with the GCC States. Similarly, Pakistan’s importance as a key regional player in influencing and shaping developments in Afghanistan, as well as the significance of its close relations with China and Iran that could influence the regional security environment cannot be underestimated. The fact that Pakistan enjoys close relations with the GCC states could play a mutually beneficial role in political dealings with other regional players.
The workshop will provide a platform to look at some important issues that need to be explored in depth, considering the commonalities the two sides share. Some significant topics that will be addressed include the political environment in the region which remains threatened by the growing instability in Afghanistan, the Iranian nuclear program, and the forward movement in the peace initiative on Kashmir. The workshop will also focus on security issues. Terrorism, soft security issues such as narcotics and human trafficking, and the rise of militant Islam will be among the topics discussed. Another common security concern is the flow of illegal immigrants from Pakistan to the GCC states.
Pakistan and the GCC states have already demonstrated the need for a joint effort to combat terrorism. Collaborative efforts to counter terrorism and contain the threat posed by human and narcotics trafficking are already being made by the governments of both Pakistan and the GCC states. There is a further need to develop these efforts. Besides, it is necessary to devise a grassroots-level program and develop sustained long- term policies that will address the root causes of terrorism. Such policies should also be looking at developing a comprehensive educational curriculum for schools and religious institutions that by inculcating proper Islamic teachings could serve as an effective deterrent against vested interests seeking to incite hatred and violence by the misuse and abuse of Islamic education. It is also important to look at the rise of militant Islam and review measures which need to be implemented to combat the conflagration of extremism.
Pakistan has always played an active role in training and providing military education to officers in the armed forces and civic security institutions of the GCC States. The workshop will review the existing military ties including trade in arms and defense systems. It will also look at the possibility of extending potential support of the Pakistan armed forces for regional defense in case of external threat to the GCC States. Another significant contribution Pakistan could offer to the GCC States is to provide nuclear technology for developing a peaceful nuclear program, with the approval and supervision of the IAEA.
Political stability and regional security are factors that are inextricably linked to the development of better economic relations between the GCC States and Pakistan. The recent surge in GCC investments in key sectors such as telecommunications, real estate and infrastructure development, energy, steel and shipping is an indicator of the growing confidence in the stability and future potential of the Pakistan economy.
The GRC-ISSI workshop hopes to highlight the significant themes that define the relations between Pakistan and the GCC States. This will be a useful endeavor to bring into focus the above-mentioned key themes and chalk out future development of ideas that are mutually beneficial not only to Pakistan and the GCC States but also other regional countries.
Throughout 2006, the shortcomings of American foreign policy in the Gulf region have become blatantly apparent. Iraq has deteriorated to the point of open civil warfare, sectarian and ethnic conflict issues throughout the Middle East have been exacerbated, the determination of Iran to challenge the United States and its pursuit of a nuclear program continues without much restraint, the stability of Afghanistan hangs very much in the balance, and the threat of terrorism has not diminished to any significant degree. Slowly but surely, the Gulf region is not only faced with the possibility of further turmoil but with a complete lack of security. And of all this occurring while concerns over world energy supplies are once underscoring the region’s central strategic importance to the rest of the world. | |
The Gulf Research Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held two meetings in 2004 and 2005 respectively focusing on the status of political reform in the GCC States. These meetings provided a broad overview of factors affecting political reform in the Gulf and an evaluation of the changes that have taken place so far in each country. The first GRC-Carnegie meeting, held in September 2004, made an important contribution to the understanding of the reform process by discussing the broad issues that affect political transformation in the area. The second meeting in November 2005 drew comparative lessons among the experiences of the GCC countries, as well as put forward ideas to reinforce the political reform process by strengthening civil society organizations even at a time of high oil prices, which cushions delaying reforms.
As political reform has become an integral part of the overall development process being implemented in the Gulf region, the GRC and the Carnegie Endowment have decided to continue their cooperation and conduct a third meeting on this topic. In order to make the third meeting as productive as the previous ones, the focus this time will be more specifically on the internal and external drivers of change and how each of these are influencing the current and future political reform process in the GCC States.
The November 2005 meeting called for the development of a quantifiable ‘democratic continuum’, where reform would not just be measured just in terms of elections but would also take into account policies dealing with constitutional development, women’s rights, freedom of the press, corruption, administrative transparency, human rights, and education reforms. In this context, the 2006 workshop would look in-depth at the domestic factors that can move the region into such direction. Specific focus will be given to the actors in the region such as political societies, civil society organizations, religious groups and a new middle class. It will equally be important to look at new emerging institutions such as parliaments, municipal councils to see the kind of impact they can generate.
In terms of economic transformation and the emergence of business and middle classes, the role of chambers of commerce needs to be looked at. During elections to the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce in December 2005 for example, two women were elected, a historic first for the Saudi kingdom. What are the implications, if any? The emergence of tactical alliances between new middle class members and the ruling elite implies questions about how this "partnership" functions. In the meanwhile, the ruling elites are struggling to initiate reforms dealing with youth unemployment and the socio-economic problems. What are the main obstacles that hinder a successful implementation of economic reforms? Finally from the domestic point of view, it will be relevant to look more closely at the ideas and debates that are contributing or hampering impending reform.
Looking at the external environment, the participants from the region in the November 2005 meeting stated that, while the September 11 events were a factor that has brought the issue of political reforms to the fore, it is certainly not the only catalyst for change. In some respects, US policies had in fact proved to be more of a “stumbling block.” A consensus opinion was that reforms will take place in the region “despite the US and not because of the US.”
Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that external factors do play a role whether positively or negatively. The workshop will thus take a multifaceted approach looking at how reforms taking place elsewhere in the Arab world are having an impact on political reform in the GCC countries, while also discussing the impact of direct external efforts to influence political reform in the Middle East on the GCC States. Specific emphasis is to be given to the perception in Washington and European capitals and the perception in the region and to a comparative analysis that looks at whether efforts have positive or mostly counterproductive effects and how such efforts can be improved upon.
The workshop has been designed so that each panel starts with two initial presentations, one by an analyst from a GCC country and one by an American or European analyst. This will make it possible to compare the different perspectives on what drives political reform in the area. It is also hoped that this will lead to ideas and/or suggestions about how the overall political reform process in the GCC countries can be reinforced and strengthened.
Objectives of the Workshop
• Focus on the Internal and External Drivers for Political Reform in the GCC States
• Look at how domestic factors have influenced and are likely to influence in the future, either positively or negatively, the political reform process in GCC countries
• Look at how external factors have influenced and are likely to influence in the future, either positively or negatively, the political reform process in GCC countries
• Provide a comparative perspective on the perception in the region, in Washington and in European capitals on the impact of various factors on political reform.
• Identifying common denominators shared by all drivers that can promote a reform process in the region and propose implementable policy alternatives.
• Understand the mechanisms of reform between new emerging actors and ruling elite.
• Provide an in-sight on economic networks financing ruling elites and civil societies.
The upcoming workshop will be the third in a series of meetings organized by the GRC as part of its Research project to promote declaring the Gulf region a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (GWMDFZ). The Research Program was created following a workshop hosted by the GRC here in Dubai on December 11-12, 2004 which launched the initiative. High level representatives from countries in the region, as well as international experts and academics, along with representatives from a number of regional and international organizations took part in a two day -closed workshop discussion on the highly critical issue of WMD proliferation in the region and the ramifications of these developments on countries in the Gulf as well as the international community.
The initiative was very well received in the region following two successful meetings in Dubai and Stockholm. The second meeting was in fact co-sponsored by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as part of their mission to conduct research on questions of conflict and co-operation for international peace and security and with the endorsement of the European Union. The gaining importance of the Gulf as a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone project in the region was exemplified in the endorsement of the idea by GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah at the opening of the GCC Summit in Abu Dhabi in December 2005.
This upcoming workshop is being carried out with the support of VERTIC, an independent, non-governmental organization. Its mission is to promote effective and efficient verification as a means of ensuring confidence in the implementation of international agreements and intra-national agreements with international involvement. VERTIC’s contribution to this meeting is funded by the Global Opportunities Fund of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO.)
At this meeting, we are hoping that through the high level official representation from all the nine Gulf States we will be able to push the process from a Track II diplomatic path to a Track I official level. It is our hope that like other disarmament processes before, we can encourage regional governments to adopt this idea officially for our mutual security.
Purposes of workshop
1. to provide an opportunity for representatives of the nine states in the greater Gulf region to exchange views on establishing a regional ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ)’ in support of the Gulf Research Center’s project to promote a Gulf WMDFZ;
2. to provide an opportunity for representatives to learn about national nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons law, as well as UN Security Council Resolution 1540 (UNSCR 1540), in support of VERTIC’s project on national implementation measures (NIM) for international treaties, agreements and norms; and
3. to provide the GRC and VERTIC with an opportunity to learn more about the positions and concerns of the participating countries regarding non-proliferation of WMD in the Gulf region, including helping to identify any areas in which technical and/or legal assistance would be useful in implementing appropriate national measures.
The workshop supports VERTIC’s project, ‘Building capacity to implement nuclear and biological weapons treaties, norms and UN Security Council Resolutions’. This project focuses on national implementation measures (NIM), and has been developed to address the difficulties that many states, especially developing countries, face in understanding what measures are required at the national level to comply with the prohibitions in a wide range of nuclear and biological treaties, norms and UN Security Council resolutions (UNSCR), and how to implement them. While there are bilateral, multilateral and inter-governmental programs which offer some implementation assistance, depending on the agreement, there are still substantial gaps to be filled. Under this project, VERTIC is developing a guide to national implementation requirements under the agreements mentioned above, model national laws and/or legislative provisions, and a list of useful resources to help states find further assistance, and holding a series of seminars and regional workshops to raise awareness of implementation obligations and approaches.
The main aim of this workshop is to start a dialogue within the UAE financial and business media about current trends and topics, with the GRC acting as a mediator for the sessions. The economic workshop follows in the wake of GRC’s release of “GCC Stock Markets At Risk,” a study by Dr. Eckart Woertz, the new GRC program manager for economics. Aside from specific stock market topics like valuations, sectors, and cross-comparisons with other emerging markets, broader economic issues will be dealt with, including oil price developments and the ailing bond market in the GCC.
Moderator:
The moderator for the workshop will be Dr. Eckart Woertz, program manager for economics at the Gulf Research Center. Dr. Woertz has extensive experience in equity and fixed income trading for German banks. His specialities are the gold and commodity markets.
The GRC’s 2006 Annual conference “Dynamic Alliances: Strengthening Ties between the GCC and Asia” will address the GCC’s growing bilateral trade and investment relations with Asia along with the correlated political and security implications. Asia’s growing role in the global economy and energy markets in the coming decade will likely influence the long-term political economy of the GCC. Asia"s oil consumption of 23 million barrels per day is already responsible more than 30 percent of the world’s oil production. This trend that is forecast to continue with growth expected to rise nearly 50 percent by 2010 and more than double by 2020. Currently, two-thirds of GCC oil exports go eastwards to Asia. Cooperation and greater linkages between the two regional blocs in the oil sector is thus a key element to ensuring both security of supply for Asian consumers and of demand for GCC oil producers. The rise in demand by Asian countries such as China, Japan, India and South Korea for secure energy sources is likely to shape international relations in the coming decades.
Economic integration between the GCC and Asian countries has increased substantially over the last decade. Asia is now undoubtedly the GCC’s most important trading partner. At 54.4 percent, GCC exports to Asia currently constitute more than half their total exports and imports from Asia account for more than a third of the GCC total, with 32.3 percent. In particular, there has been tremendous growth in bilateral trade levels between the GCC and China and India, forming a large proportion of the aggregate figures. China is now the GCC’s second largest trade partner after the USA.
As a result of the increasing economic ties between the Asian countries and the GCC, political and security dynamics are also taking a more central role. There can be no doubt as far as Asia is concerned that the emerging international relations picture will have an impact on the nature and direction of GCC-Asia economic and business ties. This includes regional interactions among the major Asian powers, the role played by the US in facilitating or complicating cooperative relationships and the involvement of international organizations as they try to balance the numerous competing forces and trends. Thus, while the economy may be the initial focus of Asian developments in the coming years, the political and security aspects will also become areas of great concern.
The GRC annual conference aims at providing a guideline to future scenarios regarding Asia, especially the GCC-Asia relationship. Through the involvement and participation of a number of high-level government officials, intellectuals and business executives from both the Gulf region and Asia, the workshop will focus on the following objectives:
Objectives of the Workshop
• To critically analyze the rising demand for energy from Asian countries and its political ramifications for the Gulf region.
• To analyze the impact of Asian conflicts (Indo-Pakistan, China-Taiwan) in terms of the implications for the GCC-Asia relationship.
• To examine the future of US-China relations and its effects on regional and global security.
• To deliberate potential areas of security cooperation among the GCC and Asia in order to combat the threat of terrorism.
• To discuss the growing economic role for Asia in the oil and non-oil sectors of the GCC as well as the formalization of trade/investment agreements between the two blocs.
Environmental awareness is slowly but surely growing in the Gulf, the proof of which lies in some of the measures instituted and implemented by the governments in the region.
In line with its vision for a Green Gulf and a greener planet and realizing the importance of environment conservation and sustainable development, the GRC has widened the scope of its activities to include environmental research and awareness activities to facilitate solutions to the problems faced by the region and the world due to the degradation of precious natural resources.
Given several constraints in assessing the damage to the environment due to the non-availability of or inconsistent data, which hinders devising and implementing solutions, a beginning toward addressing this issue has been initiated by the GRC, in cooperation with New Delhi-based The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). Called the “Green Gulf” project, the GRC–TERI partnership is a scientific attempt to address some of the most critical problems facing the region in the form of unsustainable patterns of productions and consumption.
The Green Gulf study focuses on the natural resources of the region and the state of the environment, both critical for the future of the Gulf and the world. The questions that we will seek to answer are:
1. What are the major trends in the state of the environment and natural resources in the last few years?
2. What have been the major causes of these trends, including socio-economic factors?
3. What have been the major initiatives to address some of the identified concerns?
4. What are the obstacles to reform and the strategies required to overcome these?
Further, the GRC also intends to target and mold young minds with green thinking through their academic curriculum and information dissemination, as youth are the catalysts for change. The program includes devising a Web-based education module for inculcating and creating awareness about environmental issues, preparing supplementary Arabic reading material and conducting Arabic quiz programs for sensitizing the students.
Other proposed activities include building a Web-based environmental database for the GCC countries, which will provide a storehouse of information on environmental and related issues; an annual youth conference that will focus on leading environmental threats and an annual regional report on the environment.
The fieldwork for the Green Gulf study is now complete after researchers visited each of the GCC countries to collect data and seek expert advice. A draft of the report will be sent to a specially constituted Advisory Board for comments. On 21 December, detailed presentations will be made to the Advisors on the findings, followed by discussions at the day-long workshop.
The resultant recommendations will then be incorporated into the study, which we hope to make as comprehensive and informative as possible. The preliminary report will be released in February 2006 to coincide with the Special Session of Governing Council of the United Nations Environment Programme to be held in Dubai.
The main aim of this workshop is to start energy dialogues within the UAE energy and business media with GRC working as a mediator for the sessions. The oil workshop follows in the wake of GRC’s successful Arabic translation and consequent book release of the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO 2005), in the presence of US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman on November 13, Dubai.
Background
Realizing the vital need for information about the global energy markets and the related forecasts, especially to groups such as decision-makers, policy experts, academic analysts, researchers, the business community and media, the GRC established a dedicated research program known as the Gulf Energy Program in March 2005.
The main objective of this program is to promote research in the fields of energy economics and policies, taking into consideration the vested interests of both the producers and consumers. The program will explore the best possible means for the protection of the environment and recommends sound policies for the conservation of vital resources. Translating the IEO 2005 into Arabic is part of GRC’s first step into energy research.
Workshop Moderator
Dr A.F. Alhajji - Gulf Energy Program Moderator at Gulf Research Center and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics College of Business Administration, Ohio Northern University
Who will participate
UAE energy and business editors, journalists and broadcast media.
Workshop Co-ordinators
Sona Nambiar, Business Editor, Gulf Research Center – for English Media/energy sector
Maitham Al Anbari, Editor-in-charge (Arabic), Gulf Research Center – for Arabic media
The Gulf Energy Program at the Gulf Research Center (GRC) hosted a half-day energy workshop for journalists on November 23 at GRC, Dubai. The workshop titled “Oil Prices – Past, Present and Future“ aimed to bring together the UAE media to get a better understanding of energy trends and the factors that impact energy markets, both internationally and in this region.
The main aim of this workshop was to start energy dialogues within the UAE energy and business media with GRC working as a mediator for the sessions. The oil workshop follows in the wake of GRC’s successful Arabic translation and consequent book release of the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO 2005), in the presence of US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman on November 13, Dubai.
Dr A.F. Alhajji, George Patton Chair of Business and Economics College of Business Administration, Ohio Northern University and Gulf Energy Program Moderator at Gulf Research Center was the program moderator for the workshop, which was attended by English and Arabic editors and journalists from the energy and business press.
The Arab Gulf States have been undergoing a deep process of transformation for several decades: their population has increased sharply; levels of education have risen dramatically; their economies have been integrated in the new global system and the political consciousness of their citizens has been altered by the IT revolution and the unprecedented exposure to information it entails.
The process started well before the Iraq war of 2003. To be sure, the conflict was a wake-up call for much of the region, not only because it confirmed the need for broad-based social and political change, but also because it raised significant doubts about the so-called US “forward strategy of freedom” and the reasons behind it. Both domestic pressure and external events have led many regimes to take additional steps towards creating a more participatory political order. Furthermore, citizens in all countries in the region are actively discussing the necessity for political reforms and have set forth demands for new measures.
Because of the rapid pace of change in the region, the Gulf Research Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will convene a new joint meeting in November 2005 to discuss recent developments that have taken place in a number of countries and to analyze their significance in the overall process of political reform in the Gulf region. The first GRC-Carnegie meeting, held in September 2004, made an important contribution to the understanding of the reform process by discussing the broad issues that affect political transformation in the area. The second workshop will look more closely at specific countries; it will focus primarily on the domestic process of political change: what is driving the reform process, how far it has progressed in different countries and how the transformation is likely to unfold in the short and medium term. To a lesser extent, the workshop will also consider the impact of external factors: the Iraq crisis; the shift, if any, within the US democracy agenda under a second-term Bush Administration and possible roles to be played by other external actors such as the European Union and the UN.
The workshop has been designed to incorporate the presentation and discussion of brief working papers covering the experience of political reform in each one of the six GCC States. Each paper will put forth a general evaluation of the conditions and status of the process of political reform in the concerned country and bring up major issues and questions linked to reform. Papers will also discuss key opportunities for and the most prominent obstacles to political reform.
The workshop will provide an opportunity to draw comparative lessons among the experiences of the GCC States as well as put forward ideas or feasible suggestions regarding the means and requirements for the reinforcement of political reform process and strengthening of civil society organizations (CSOs) in the GCC countries.
Objectives of the Workshop:
• Placing the reform movement in an overall comparative perspective
• Examining the salient domestic factors driving political reform in the GCC States.
• Tracing and analyzing the various political and social forces demanding political reform in the GCC countries in terms of their respective orientations, visions and their power of influence.
• Discussing the major issues and obstacles related to political reform in the GCC countries.
• Formulating comparisons among the reform experiences in the six GCC countries with the objective of identifying and elaborating upon common denominators shared by the six GCC States along with the nuances of specific cases.
Articulating feasible suggestions to support the process of political reform in the GCC States.
GCC-Iran relations are close in numerous areas and have continued to develop over recent years. At the same time, relations have known periods of ebb and flow due to domestic developments in Iran, on the one hand, and the transformations occurring on the regional scene as well as changing international influences on the Gulf region, on the other. As a result, progress in one area is no guarantee for a more stable and mutually beneficial relationship overall. Specifically, on the security front, there are still numerous deficits that need to be tackled and overcome.
For the moment, the positive developments in GCC-Iran relations are balanced out by the deteriorating conditions in Iraq in the post-invasion and post-occupation (March-April 2003) period and the continued tensions and animosity between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear file and a number of other problematic issues. Domestic developments in Iran, too, raise many questions and issues related to the GCC-Iran interactions. The legislative elections held in Iran in 2004 revealed that the conservative wing of the regime has managed to reinforce its clout while the role of reformist-minded politicians lost much of its vigor. This particular development carries key significance for Iran’s internal political map, just as it might impact Iran’s policy choices, both regionally and internationally.
As Iran’s ninth presidential elections are due in June 2005, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in association with the University of Durham (UK) will hold a joint workshop entitled ‘Current Conditions & Future Prospects of GCC - Iran Relations in the wake of Iran"s Presidential Elections’. The driving objective of the workshop will be to debate and analyze the current and likely impact arising from the outcome of the elections on the various issues framing the relations among the GCC States and Iran.
In a bid to enrich the dialogue and offering a platform for constructive discussions, each session of the workshop will host two speakers, one from Iran and another from one of the six GCC States. Both speakers will present a brief overview of their positions and visions regarding the specific issue under discussion.
The workshop will take place on September 28 & 29, 2005 at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The new Iranian president will have by that time formed the new government and the major trends and policies of the elected government will have become more clearly palpable.
Objectives of the workshop
• Discuss the reality of the transformations unfolding through Iran’s domestic
political map, particularly in relation to the balance of power between the
reformists and conservatives.
• Debate and analyzing the nature and limits of the role of the Iranian
president in shaping the decision-making process both at the domestic and
foreign policy-making levels in light of Iran’s complicated political regime.
• Trace and analyze the visions and positions of the elected president
towards the issues of security and stability in the Gulf region and the GCC-
Iran relations
• Debate and discern the current conditions and future developments framing
the GCC-Iran relations in the security, political and economic domains.
Participants will also identify the major factors and determinants likely to
shape and impact relations between the two sides.
• Explore the visions and policy choices of both the GCC States and Iran
during the term of the new president in relation to key regional and
international issues, notably the Iraqi dossier as well as the outlook for US-
Iran relations.
• Discussing the ways and means likely to contribute to formulating a set of
collective GCC policies towards Iran.
• Putting forth ideas and suggestions regarding the requirements and
mechanisms that could boost the GCC-Iran relations.
Participants
The GRC and the University of Durham will invite a select group of participants that will include:
• Specialized scholars and experts from Iran and the six GCC countries.
• A number of Arab and non-Arab scholars specialized in Gulf affairs.
• A number of foreign ministry officials from Iran and the GCC countries as well as delegates from the Secretariat-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
WELCOME REMARKS
Abdulaziz O. Sager
Chairman
Gulf Research Center
In the Name of Allah the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
Your Excellencies,
Distinguished Guest,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is my great pleasure to welcome you here and express my deep appreciation for your participation in this important workshop, which is organized by the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in collaboration with the very reputable University of Durham.
The workshop will discuss a vital topic concerning the Current Conditions & Future Prospects of GCC -Iran Relations in the wake of Iran"s Presidential Elections, and their implications for the region and beyond.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Needless to say, that the relations between the GCC States and Iran are quite important for the two sides because of certain geographic, cultural, political, economic and security considerations. These relations witnessed periods of noticeable Fluctuations, since the 1970s. They were constantly affected by various regional and international developments, in addition to some domestic events within both sides, especially in Iran.
It is against this backdrop that the GRC and the University of Durham took the initiative of holding this seminar. A group of distinguished scholars, experts and senior officials from the GCC States and Iran have been invited to discuss the prospects for these relations in an objective, frank and transparent context. The aim of this gathering is to determine the factors governing the future of these relations and analyze the major challenges that have adversely affected them.
The seminar will provide an ideal forum for advancing some valuable insights to tackle these obstacles, and recommend possible ways and means that could help remove any real or potential fears, and enhance these relations in the future. The ultimate goal is to provide the tenets for sustainable security and stability in a region that has, hitherto, seen more than its fair share of raging wars and destructive conflicts.
Dear guests,
As you may well know, the relations between the GCC States and Iran have multifaceted aspects in terms of their political, economic and security dimensions. It is quite important that we seek to analyze their relations in light of some important developments; chief among them was the recent presidential elections in Iran, viewed by many analysts as a turning point in Iranian policy at both the domestic and external levels.
We cannot afford to overlook the future trends of bilateral relations between the GCC States and Iran, nor can we ignore the major regional and international developments that shaped the complex nature of relations between Washington and Tehran, the ramifications of the tug of war that accompanied the Iranian nuclear program, the implications of the situation in Iraq and other issues of concern.
In addition, other vital issues such as turbulent oil markets, the necessary requirements for enhancing political and security stability in the region as well as other issues are vital aspects of relations between Iran and the GCC states.
Distinguished Guests
The Gulf Research Center is keen on discerning and analyzing developments in Iran, the region and beyond, not out of some passing necessity or transient need, but, rather, because of a genuine convictions on its part of the importance of Iran as a major player in the Gulf Region. We cannot speak about stability in this region without considering Iran.
It is on the basis of this keen interest that the GRC is issuing a series entitled: "Iranian Studies", and dedicated a special part on its annual report, "The Gulf Yearbook", for Iran – Also, our Center has translated and published many studies about Iran, and most of these articles could be accessed on our website: http://www.grc.ae.
I hereby call upon the experts and scholars specialized in Iranian affairs to contribute to our publications and introduce their valuable insights to our readers in both Arabic and English.
Dear guests,
Once again, I would like to thank you all for your participation in this seminar, which is going to be a thought- provoking and fruitful event, thanks to your contributions.
I should like to avail myself of this opportunity to express my deep gratitude and many thanks to the University of Durham, whose valuable efforts and collaboration with the Gulf Research Center have made it possible to organize and ultimately hold this seminar.
Thank you for coming all the way to this event, and my best wishes for a very pleasant stay in this great emirate of Sharjah.
Thank you,
The terrorist atrocities committed in London on July 7th 2005 were a horrific act of cowardice and a crime against humanity. The Arab and Islamic world stand fully behind the United Kingdom in its fight to bring the perpetrators of this act to justice and wish to offer all possible solidarity and support to overcome those who willfully abuse the name of Islam for their immoral agendas.
It is with this conviction that the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is hosting a one-day workshop on July 28th 2005 in London. We are hosting this event, at which Arab and British diplomats, governmental officials and counter-terrorism experts are invited to exchange ideas and better understand the themes that define the fight against terrorism today. It is our hope and wish that the solidarity we feel with the United Kingdom as it responds to these atrocities should not pass without comment and action. We believe that in order to face this challenge, we must work to transform this tragic experience into greater cooperation and understanding.
As the events of the past few years have shown, we are all victims of terrorism. From New York to Madrid and London, from Morocco to Istanbul and Bali as well as the Gulf countries, the war against terror is a global war that affects all our futures. Terrorists do not distinguish between Arabs and Westerners, Muslims and non-Muslims – these are imaginary lines that should not divide us either. We fully stand behind the findings of the UN High Level Panel of December 2004 and the words of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that “terrorism is a threat to all states and to all peoples, which can strike anytime, anywhere.”
The workshop will address two main themes;
• On the political level, addressing the impact of terrorism and how we can overcome this threat,
• On the practical level, tackling critical co-operative measures that need to be undertaken together to fight terrorism on every front
Workshop Language will be English. No translation service will be provided.
Opening Remarks by Abdulaziz Sager
Chairman, Gulf Research Center:
Your Excellencies,
Distinguished Guests,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is my pleasure to welcome you on behalf of the Gulf Research Center and to thank you for being here with us on such short notice.
Three weeks ago to this day, Londoners woke up to shocking news. Something described a year beforehand as being "inevitable" by London's Chief of Metropolitan Police had arrived - the city had suffered a terrorist attack.
Although the events of Thursday, the 7th of July resulted in the loss of dozens of innocent lives, scores of serious causalities and great deal of unnecessary physical damage, the perpetrators of this immoral deed aimed at far more than human or physical damage in planning this criminal act.
The real casualty, they hoped, would lie beyond the visible impact of the bombs. Their target was to undermine the trust, the cordial relations, and the harmony within multi-racial British society and to inflict deep and permanent damage to Arab and Moslem relations with the United Kingdom in particular and with the Western states and societies in general.
Today, we meet to send clear message to whoever planned this barbaric act. We meet as representatives of Arabs, Britons and Westerners regardless of our religious beliefs, to convey the message to those responsible for this attack that we will work relentlessly to undermine their strategy and foil their objectives.
As a Gulf and Arab think-tank, the GRC sensed an urgent need to organize this event. This meeting represents a modest endeavor to pass on a message of solidarity coming from the heart of the Arab and Moslem world. It aims to share with the British people and British government their revulsion at this act and to say that there can be no religious, moral, or political justification for the murder of innocent people.
This workshop was inspired by the feeling that after the attacks in both London and other cities around the world, no-one is safe; we are all in one boat and all of us live under the shadow and the threat of international terrorism.
Terrorism today does not recognize geographical and political borders, nationality, race, or religion. It is an act of blind and indiscriminate killing.
Let me take this opportunity to express my sincere admiration of the British popular and official reaction and response to the attack, which can only be described as calm, calculated and professional. Rather than panic and make rash decisions – which is what those responsible would have wanted – the authorities on the scene made sure their behavior was exemplary.
Our discussions during this workshop will focus on two major themes. The first part of the meeting will consist of two sessions and will cover political dimensions of the incident. The British view point and response to the terror attacks will be given in the first session followed by speakers from the Arab and Islamic world and the Gulf region. The third and fourth sessions will focus on the practical questions of counter-terrorism and will include a discussion of efforts and strategies required in this field. We hope to cast some light on the crucial question of terrorist organization recruitment strategies and end the discussion with prospects for promoting Arab–British cooperation in the field of counter-terrorism.
We are grateful to all of you who accepted our invitation and greatly appreciate the generosity of the speakers who agreed to share their thoughts with us. We look forward to a fruitful and enlightening session.
Thank You.
The workshop will be the second in a series of meetings organized by the GRC as part of its recently created Research Program to promote declaring the Gulf region a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Free Zone. The Research Program was created following a workshop hosted by the GRC here in Dubai on December 11-12, 2004. High level representatives from countries in the region, as well as international experts and academics took part in a two day workshop discussion on the highly critical issue of WMD proliferation in the region and the ramifications of these developments on countries in the Gulf as well as the international community. The results of this meeting were very positive both on a regional and international level indicating a growing consensus that promoting the principle of a Gulf WMDFZ is an important step towards creating regional security architecture. click here for details.
The Stockholm meeting in May is part of the GRC"s aim to sponsor and promote a regional disarmament research project in the Gulf, based on the principle that all states in the region must reject the proliferation of WMD. The workshop is jointly hosted by SIPRI as part of their mission to conduct scientific research on questions of conflict and co-operation for international peace and security: it will also be complementary with an ongoing SIPRI research program that is reviewing ways to optimize the European Union’s cooperation with its neighbors in tackling WMD challenges, both state and non state.
Whereas the GRC meeting in December laid out a framework for dialogue amongst the Gulf States and their international partners, suggesting a step-by step road map to achieving the objective of clearing the region of WMD, the upcoming meeting aims to discuss the parameters of such an endeavor in greater detail including:
• the reasons behind a Gulf sub-strategy approach to a wider Middle East
security arrangement,
• the role of states within the region in promoting official support for a Gulf
WMDFZ and implementing the logistical mechanisms for sustaining this zone,
• the role of states and organizations outside the region in working with Gulf
partners to achieve mutually beneficial security objectives.
The workshop will bring together a diverse range of expert perspectives on this subject. The GRC-SIPRI vision is to help open the door for dialogue between the states of the Gulf and the international community on this subject
The work of the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is animated by a vision that rests essentially on its deep conviction that the Arabian Gulf region does not merely represent a geographical mass made up of a number of adjacent states; rather, the GRC approaches the Gulf region as a geographical structure that incorporates a complex set of inter-woven interests, policies and relations. These are so closely inter-related that events in any one state in the region directly affect other states.
No doubt, the current situation in Iraq embodies the most dramatic and outstanding event in the Gulf region, both at present and in the near future, as ongoing developments in that war-battered country certainly carry wide-ranging ramifications for Iraq itself and for other countries across the region.
Setting out from this undeniable reality, the GRC has decided to convene a symposium entitled Iraq and its Neighboring Countries: Mutual Visions.
This is the second academic event in a series of annual symposia held by the GRC and devoted specially to the Iraqi file.
Debates at the symposium will examine and analyze as well as propound forecasts on Iraq’s relations with each state within Iraq’s proximate geographical sphere. An Iraqi researcher, and a peer researcher from a neighboring state, will each be assigned to write a research paper to be discussed and commented upon by a third scholar. The point is to ensure the greatest degree of objectivity and comprehensiveness in approach.
The symposium will be held on March 30, 2005. In fact, the timing is quite appropriate, as it coincides with the second anniversary of the outbreak of the war against Iraq. By March 2005, many developments that appear today foggy and opaque might probably grow clearer, especially after the Iraqi elections that tookplace on 30 january 2005.
The attacks of September 11, 2001, the subsequent US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime signified a watershed in US/GCC relations with urgent ramifications for the Middle East region. As a result, the GCC states are faced with a critical period in terms of balancing the new dynamics of foreign strategic interests and internal security issues, reflected in the growing discontent of its people and in the region as a whole, against the unilateral and perceived ideological thrust of the Bush Administration’s foreign policy.
More specifically for the GCC states, the rapid developments in US foreign policy over the last four years have forced important questions to the forefront of the political debate including the nature of future US-GCC relations, the place of the GCC States in a developing US strategic framework, the impact of the US determination to seek political change in the region, and the role played by economic forces in a high oil price environment. The re-election of George W. Bush in November 2004 has undoubtedly affected each of these central issues. The GCC countries must develop and present a common policy approach to the US with regards to energy, security, democratic development, the security vacuum in Iraq and the now critical emerging dynamics with Iran on the nuclear issue.
In light of these developments, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is hosting a workshop, organized in conjunction with GRC’s second annual conference and the presentation of the annual report “The Gulf in the Year 2004”, in order to take an in-depth look at the role and policies of the United States with regard to the Gulf region, in particular its objectives, its geo-political and geo-strategic context, as well as the broader implications for the regional environment. Specific emphasis will be given to the shifts that have occurred over the past year in light of events in Iraq and the continuing US “war on terrorism.”
The conference comes at a particularly apt time. It is our intention to put forward a first assessment on the key strategic parameters of a future US Gulf policy under a second term of the Bush presidency. Key considerations include the important question of whether a second Bush term will be based on the policies outlined in the first, or whether his administration will differentiate their foreign policy approach.
Objectives of the Workshop:
• To assess the stated and intended policies of the Bush administration for
the Gulf region in order to understand the concerns and aims of both the
US and Gulf countries over the next four years;
• To discuss the approach that the Bush administration will likely take in
terms of the US Greater Middle East Partnership initiatives and to what
degree a more sustained push for political liberalization and reform
measures can be expected;
• To analyze whether the transformation in GCC-US relations from the
beginning of the Bush administration in 2000 are likely to continue and to
determine the implications of such a course, in particular as far as the war
on terrorism is concerned;
• To focus on the possible scenarios and outcomes over the coming years as
far as Iraq is concerned and place these assessments within the overall
strategic framework for the region and the implications for GCC security;
• To assess the developments of US/Iran relations and the potential
ramifications for Gulf stability;
• To analyze how economic developments in the energy sector are likely to
impact the overall relationship;
• To define common areas of interests in which the GCC States and the US
can cooperate together as a means to stabilize the security environment in
the Gulf region;
• To discuss what the policy of the GCC States towards the United States
should be in order to formulate and present a cohesive and unified position
on the above issues.
Also see the Research Program: GCC Relations with US
During the past few months a noticeable diplomatic and international media campaign has intensified vis-à-vis the possibility, present and future, of a WMD and in particular nuclear development in the Gulf region. The threat that certain countries in the region may cease their reliance on conventional weapons and turn instead to developing WMDs poses a grave security concern. Any such development will have immense historic implications for the security and stability of the Gulf region, which remains a vital element for the stability and prosperity of the world as the main source of international oil exports
It is now imperative that the people of the region as well as their governments discuss the implications of this possible development. If any one of the Gulf States manages to acquire nuclear capabilities or nuclear weapons, the people of the region would be the primary victims. Any assessment of the issues at stake must bear in mind that the type of primitive nuclear capabilities - should any of the regional states proceed with such a development program - would not in any way constitute a real deterrence against the world’s great powers or even the region"s nuclear powers. These nations posses huge and well-developed nuclear capabilities able to deal efficiently with any new threat emanating from a nascent nuclear power with limited technological capabilities. Therefore the real and immediate outcome of any WMD development in the Gulf from a security, political, and environmental perspective would be to the detriment of the security of the Gulf States and the safety and security of the people of the region.
The GRC, as a regional think tank that is deeply concerned with the wider geopolitical and strategic dimensions of the affairs of the Gulf which includes the six member states of the GCC Council, in addition to Iraq, Iran and Yemen, and as part of the Center’s commitment to serve and enhance the security, stability and prosperity of the people and countries of the region, strongly believes that it is now urgent to consider pre-emptive measures against the possibility that the Gulf region involve itself in a WMD arms-race thereby entering a dangerous phase in its history.
Given the recent developments across the region, the GRC, out of its concern and as part of its stated mission to promote regional stability and support peaceful co-existence across the Gulf, has taken the initiative in its capacity as an independent think-tank to put the issue on the table for regional debate. The main objective of this GRC initiative is to use the lessons and examples from nations that faced similar crises in the past and managed to find viable solutions through a rational approach that protected the core interests of the people of their regions. The outcome of past efforts has been the signing of a number of historic agreements to disarm and destroy the nuclear capabilities of certain countries. Notable instances include the voluntary decision by the government of South Africa in 1990 to dismantle their nuclear arsenal, or the historic agreements to declare regional-geographical blocs as WMD-free zones, as was the case with the declaration and commitment of Latin American and Caribbean countries in 1967, the agreement signed by the countries of the South Pacific in 1985, the agreement ratified by African countries in 1996 and the agreement ratified by Central Asian countries in 2002.
The outstanding success achieved by the four regions which were all declared as nuclear- and WMD-free zones, covering more than 110 countries is an encouraging incentive for the Gulf region.
Conducting a constructive dialogue and debate on this particular issue is one of the top priorities of GRC. The current workshop represents the primary core for future activities and events that the GRC plans to hold in a bid to sustain the continuation of serious debate on the need to build a comprehensive and efficient regional security system as well as consolidate regional stability, cooperation and peaceful coexistence among the countries in the region. The project for the declaration of the Gulf region as WMD-free zone is, in fact, one of the most vital requirements for the establishment of a regional security system.
It is worth pointing out in this context that the GRC strongly believes that the entire Middle East region ought to be declared a WMD-free zone. The GRC regards the Gulf project as a vital starting-point for a future security architecture that would, if successful, include the whole Middle East region. The GRC believes that the success of this project will contribute towards reinforcing a new framework of security principles and- in the long-term- intensify regional and international pressures on any remaining Middle East countries that possess WMD capabilities towards a disarmament agreement. It is hoped that the project will give rise to a new legal and political reality that will undermine the much-repeated political and moral justifications and arguments deployed by Israel to defend their nuclear arsenal.
The GRC"s optimism in this endeavor is based on the past success of other nations and regions in creating WMD free zones. Beginning with the acceptance of one nation to this principle, many countries were able to coerce neighboring countries in specific regions to accept disarmament either through caving in to regional and international pressure, as was the case with South Africa’s decision to destroy its nuclear arsenal and join the declaration of Africa as a nuclear-free zone, or by taking the historic decision to completely abandon advanced programs for the development of WMDs, as was the case with Brazil and Argentina, both of which joined the declaration of Latin American states of the region as WMD-free zone.
The GRC hopes the debates at this workshop will focus on these sensitive issues on two levels; Firstly, a regional and open dialogue among the nine states of the Gulf region expressing their concerns and reservations on the subject of regional security. Secondly, a regional-international discussion, involving international organizations and a number of the world’s great powers whose interests have become intertwined within the security structure of the Gulf region. The Gulf should look towards the US, the EU member states and the Russian Federation amongst other nations for real dialogue on the objective of declaring the region a WMD free zone.
Opening Remarks by GRC Chairman Abdulaziz O. Sager
Dear Guests,
It is my pleasure to welcome you at the Gulf Research Center here today, to discuss an issue of paramount importance.
The GRC like most other think tanks around the globe has a clear vision and a well defined mission.
It is an unfortunate fact that in the Gulf region and in the greater Middle East we are facing major problems and formidable challenges. We are living in a permanent and constant crisis, where a lot of blood, money, and effort are wasted needlessly and inhumanly.
This region is so unique and so vital to the entire world, irrespective of its geographical separation or cultural diversity. It is simply the main reservoir of the energy supply to the machinery of modern civilization.
Accordingly, we strongly believe that interests in the stability of this region must be a shared responsibility between the inhabitants of the region and the rest of the world.
The GRC vision is simple, logical and legitimate. It is focused, and revolves on promoting one simple objective, which is: the basic right of the people of the Gulf region is to live in a stable, peaceful, and secure environment, and we rightly believe that everyone in this region and even beyond, shares our desires and aspirations.
We said that the Gulf is an identifiable region or a sub – region consisting of nine countries. We strongly believe in the principle of inclusion and not exclusion, based on the fact that the stability and prosperity of this region could not be achieved without the full and active participation of all the nine states of the geo – political or geo – strategic Gulf.
A major role of this Center’s activities is directed towards promoting the basic components of a durable, sustainable, just and equal security system that could lead to a stable and secure region. This specific theme of promoting regional security measures in the Gulf region was the focus of the GRC workshop jointly held last November with the Bertelsmann Foundation of Germany.
Today, we are taking another step towards achieving this objective. We will attempt to put on the table a new idea to underpin and strengthen the regional security concept. We cannot achieve security or be part of an agreed regional security regime without first accepting and endorsing the basic principle of prohibiting the development, production, stockpiling, and the use of Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) in the region.
The shortest and most effective approach to achieving this noble objective is to utilize other nations’ and regions’ experiences in this field , from Latin America, Africa, South Pacific, Central Asia and other regions, in the hope of promoting the project of declaring the Gulf region as a WMD free zone. Today we have five well established Nuclear Free Zones around the Globe, and more than 110 states, collectively and/or individually that accepted the legally binding obligation to renounce the Nuclear or WMD option and abandon all developments of such weapons.
Our task today and tomorrow is to discuss and encourage the development of the Gulf as a WMD free zone. In that sense we aspire to be the voice of the voiceless, irrespective of their nationality or the attitude of their own government or political leadership.
We are fully aware that the entire Middle East region needs to be declared as a WMD free zone, but equally we believe that our success in establishing the Gulf as a WMD free zone region is a crucial first step. We hope that it will have a huge impact on the entire Middle East, generating the necessary pressure and positive political environment in which the expansion of this concept to include the entire Middle East region could be accelerated.
Thank you again for being here and we hope that this workshop leads to practical and feasible recommendations and solutions.
From November 23 – 25, 2004, the Gulf Research Center along with the Bertelsmann Foundation, Germany and its scientific partner the Center for Applied Policy Research (CAP), Muncih, held a workshop entitled “A New Window of Opportunity?: Europe, Gulf Security and the Aftermath of the Iraq War.” The event brought together over 30 specialists including representatives from all the GCC members states and numerous European Union countries to discuss the impact of the Iraq War on the current security situation in the region and to outline the steps that can by taken by the EU to alleviate the resulting challenges.
Perhaps one of the most outstanding ramifications of the oil boom era that marked the seventies of the past century across the GCC countries is the panoply of grand and ambitious infrastructural, particularly construction, projects that were edified at the time. However, due to the limited size of the Gulf population, and the equally limited pool of manpower, huge numbers of expatriate workers, especially Asian, flooded the GCC labor markets. As time passed, a worrisome demographic imbalance started to emerge in all the GCC countries, though with varying degrees, so much so, in fact, that nationals have come to represent in some GCC States a demographic minority in their own countries.
More critically, the increasing numbers of expatriate workers in the GCC countries over the last few years have contributed to increasing the rate of unemployment among GCC nationals. Unemployment has even hit the ranks of expatriate workers themselves, as a remarkable number of the expatriate labor community belongs to non-skilled or semi-skilled labor categories.
Even though mushrooming unemployment remains an undeniable reality across the GCC countries, no reliable data or accurate statistics are available as to the real size of this phenomenon.
Given the actual and potential dangers usually associated with unemployment, as idleness oftentimes contributes to creating a convenient breeding ground for the phenomena of extremism, violence and criminal activities, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) has decided to hold a one-day workshop in a bid to discern and analyze the real conditions of the labor markets and the problem of unemployment in the GCC countries, as well as identify reliable sources of information in connection with these issues. The workshop will strive to bring out the structural characteristics that underlie these issues, along with setting forth an objective evaluation of the policies deployed by the GCC governments in coming to grips with unemployment and proposing a set of feasible recommendations likely to stem out this phenomenon.
Participants at the workshop will include a distinguished pool of university professors, economic experts, GCC economic and labor policy-makers, as well as a number of private-sector operators who are often accused of being reluctant to employ national workers.
There is no doubt that the media today assumes a vital role at both national and international levels, particularly in light of the sweeping information technology and telecommunications revolution occuring in the region as a result of globalization.
In the context of the world’s new realities, the GCC media has undergone momentous developments since the 1990"s. The major transformations came about mainly due to the convergence of domestic and external factors. At the domestic level, the GCC countries witnessed huge socio-economic developments as a direct result of the oil boom. Politically, Gulf societies became more open, particularly in the post-Second Gulf War era. At the global level, the increasing flow of information transcending national borders has been buttressed by the mushrooming number of satellite TV channels, both Arab and foreign. In fact, satellite televisions have been a driving force in fostering the GCC media. However, the new environment confronts the Gulf media with real and daunting challenges.
In view of these epoch-changing developments, the GCC countries established a number of satellite TV channels. The local press, for its part, undertook a facelift of both its form and content. The private sector, too, found its way into the media field. Privately-owned TV channels, such as mbc and Al-Arabia, came into being, taking advantage of the modern infrastructure the emirate of Dubai established in Dubai Media City. In retrospect, the Doha-based Al-Jazeera channel seems to have inaugurated a turning-point chapter, not only for the Gulf media, but also for its wider Arab counterpart. Indeed, Al-Jazeera adopted new broadcasting technologies and addressed issues hitherto regarded as taboos, which incensed many Arab governments, including the GCC States’.
In its sustained drive to keep track of and analyze the political, economic, social, cultural and media developments that unravel across the GCC countries, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) will hold a workshop entitled ‘New Trends in the Gulf Media Between Domestic Needs and External Challenges’ in a bid to provide an academic platform for the discussion and evaluation of the myriad developments that have recently unfolded in the media field in the GCC countries.
Debates at the workshop will cover the priorities on the GCC States’ media agendas, production techniques used in the press, satellite TV channels and electronic media.
At the level of media content, participants at the workshop will debate the nature and implications of the new trends in the content of TV programs and news coverage, shedding special light on the coverage conducted by such prestigious GCC TV channels as Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabia and Abu Dhabi TV during the war against Afghanistan in 2001 and the war against Iraq in 2003.
Additionally, participants will look into the various challenges emanating from the external environment, particularly the direct and indirect pressures Washington has been exerting on the Gulf media.
In parallel with the debates on the major issues that concern the Gulf media, participants will elaborate a number of feasible suggestions likely to enhance palpably the professionalism of the GCC media.
Participants at the workshop come from diverse media professions. They include editors-in-chief of a number of Gulf newspapers and magazines, directors of GCC TV channels and radio stations, in addition to a select number of scholars, media experts and PR specialists.
We hope that the diverse range of participants will offer the chance of understanding the multiple aspects of the GCC media from comparative perspectives.
During the past few years, the GCC states (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) have all taken steps, albeit different in nature and strength, on the path towards political reform.
For the GCC states, political reform has been the result of several internal developments, including the hard economic and financial conditions, the emergence of new political movements demanding political reform, and the rise to power of new leaders, as was the case in Qatar and Bahrain. In addition, external factors, especially the mounting external pressure after the September 11 attacks, have created additional incentives for political reform.
Given the importance of the subject of political reform in the GCC states and the important economic and strategic position these countries occupy on the world stage due to their oil wealth, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) are co-organizing a workshop under the title "Political Reform in the GCC States: Current Situation and Future Prospects." A number of experts, researchers, and political activists from the GCC States, the US, and Europe will participate in this event.
Objectives of the Workshop
It seems as though the Gulf region is destined to witness a new war every decade. After the First Gulf War 1980-1988, the Second Gulf War broke out in 1990 after Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait. On March 20, 2003, the US and Britain launched the Third Gulf War under the slogan of "Operation Iraqi Freedom." Some of the declared objectives of the war were deposing the regime of Saddam Hussain, disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction and the establishment of a democratic regime in Baghdad that would serve as a model for the whole region. This war represents in one way or another an extension of the previous two Gulf Wars. This is true because it is not possible to understand its dimensions and ramifications without taking into account the First and Second Gulf Wars as well as the repercussions of the events of September 11.
Regardless of the direct results of this war, it will have immediate and future security, economic, political, cultural and social consequences not only on the Gulf region, but also on the Arab world and the Middle East, in addition to its current and potential ramification on the international system, the structure of the international relations and the future of the United Nations.
Accordingly, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is keen on initiating a comprehensive and integrated research program on current conditions and potential developments in Iraq. It includes conducting studies, reports, and analysis, as well as organizing workshops, forums and conferences to discern and analyze the background of this war, its various dimensions, present-day realities and future scenarios, current and potential effects and ramifications. Within this context the GRC produces and publishes a series of specialized and academic studies entitled " Iraq Studies."
Since the Gulf region is the battlefield and the one to be most affected by its consequences, the GRC took the initiative to organize this forum to discern and analyze the effects of this war on the Gulf region including Iraq and Iran, as well as to present some ideas and suggestions on how the GCC states could deal with the adverse consequences of this war.
Opening Speech
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman, Gulf Research Center
9:30 AM
Ladies and Gentlemen,
First of all I would like to welcome you all to the Gulf Research Center (GRC) and express my pleasure and appreciation for your participation in this important workshop under the title “A year after the War and Occupation: Current Situation in Iraq and its Ramifications on the GCC States” organized by this center. This event coincides with the first anniversary of the fall of Baghdad and the occupation of Iraq in a manner unprecedented in the modern history of the fall of capitals.
The Center is honored by the participation of such a distinguished elite of politicians, thinkers, experts and researchers in this workshop. Undoubtedly, your contribution will enrich the workings of the workshop, especially during the cloudy and confused situation of the current Iraqi scene. This situation strongly indicates that the war in Iraq is by no means over, even a year after the fall of Baghdad and Saddam’s regime. It also indicates that the future of Iraq is still open to every possibility.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
History may one day reveal the background and secrets of the fall of Baghdad and the swift and surprising collapse of the previous regime. The fact is that the US-UK war on Iraq created a new situation in the Gulf region. The disappearance of Saddam’s regime and the US-UK occupation of Iraq represent, in fact, a new era in the modern history of Iraq, an era that is still emerging, an era characterized by obscurity and ambiguity. Various factors contributed to the current situation; the incoherent US policy in Iraq and the regional meddling in Iraqi affairs. Let us not forget the divisions and disagreements among major Iraqi parties regarding core issues connected to the future of the political system and the nature of the state. Though the provisional constitution has been signed, this is the current situation on the ground. All these factors will inevitably pose several grave questions and raise many issues regarding the future of Iraq.
Undoubtedly matters are seriously complicated by the continuous deterioration of the security situation in Iraq, despite the presence of more than 200,000 foreign soldiers on its soil. There is the continuous deterioration of the economic and social conditions of the Iraqi people (construction efforts are obviously limping along); and the dismantling of the Iraqi state institutions by the occupying forces. There are even more dangerous complications caused by those people trying to instigate sectarian and ethnic conflicts threatening to drag the country into civil war.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Under the previous regime, Iraq had been a major player in many regional and international problems and thorny issues since the late 1970s. Iraq waged a long war with Iran during most of the 1980s and in 1990 Iraq brought about the calamity of the Second Gulf War by occupying the state of Kuwait. It was an unprecedented event in the history of the Arab order. This act has had catastrophic ramifications on the Arab order, Arab security, intra-Arab relations and Arab relations with the international powers, especially with the US.
The fact is that what happened and is still happening, in post-Saddam Iraq, has concrete, possible, direct and indirect consequences on the Gulf region in particular and on the Arab and international orders in general. These developments have taken place regardless of the American agenda and objectives in this latest war against Iraq and must be considered as partly connected to oil and the imperial ambitions of the US under a neo-conservative administration. In addition, there are also repercussions for the global role of the US and the US presidential elections this November.
Accordingly, the GRC has been keen to organize this workshop in order to appraise and analyze the economic, security and political consequences of the war and occupation for the GCC states. We aim moreover to develop views and suggestions regarding possible policies the GCC states might adopt in dealing with the Iraqi issue. These suggestions would be framed in a manner that would contribute to the independence of Iraq, its territorial integrity and stability and would be conducive to achieving stability and security in the Gulf region. Indeed it is not possible to achieve stability in the Gulf without a stable Iraq nor is any regional security feasible without including Iraq in any such future security arrangements.
The real challenge that faces all the concerned parties is how to set Iraq on the path to security, stability and democracy.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a known fact that Iraq is a central element in the Gulf region given its location, history and demographic weight. Iraq also enjoys a very important position in the global oil market as it possesses the second largest oil reserves in the world. For these reasons, it is important to follow and understand Iraqi events. The other Gulf countries cannot escape the repercussions of Iraq slipping into a civil war that would endanger its territorial integrity. In this eventuality, Iraq could become a breeding ground for extremism, violence and terrorism. Whenever there is a power vacuum at the center, extremist and terrorist groups will move to fill it. The examples of Somalia and Afghanistan are still vivid in our minds. It is, therefore, very important to explore the requirements and conditions necessary to save Iraq from this horrible destiny.
The war and its aftermath have moreover created a new security environment in the Gulf region as Iraq has been temporarily from the regional power equation. Besides, Washington"s military priorities in the GCC states have changed markedly and the US intends to build permanent military bases in Iraq. The transfer of power to the Iraqis does not necessarily mean halting the deterioration of the security situation in the country, especially now that the new Spanish government intends to withdraw its troops from Iraq. Other countries may follow suit. All this raises several questions about the future of security arrangements in the region especially;
Dear guests,
The possible ramifications of the current situation in Iraq on the economic conditions and domestic policies in the GCC states are of no less importance than those of security. Future developments in Iraq may have adverse consequences on the international oil markets which could in their turn affect, in different ways and varying degrees, the oil export dependent economies of the GCC. In addition, there is the issue of debts and reparation that Iraq has to pay to some of these countries, although part of these debts has been written off by some GCC states. The GCC states moreover are almost unrepresented in the reconstruction process in Iraq, despite having relatively sound economic and commercial capabilities in this regard. It is therefore necessary for the GCC to consider the economic impact on their economies of what is happening in Iraq and how to deal with it.
You may well agree with me that, whatever may be the shape of any future Iraqi political system, whether the right conditions for establishing a democratic system were put in place or whether things deteriorated into internal strife and civil war, you may well agree that in both cases there will be direct and indirect effects on the domestic political conditions in the GCC states. The workshop is therefore presented with the task of discussing these possibilities, identifying their ramifications on the region and thinking of ways to save Iraq and the region from the worst case scenario.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Our region has reached an historic milestone. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that the Arab future hangs in the balance, especially under these continuous crises and problems that the Arab nation is facing in the midst of tremendous international pressures and unprecedented security vulnerability, perhaps the greatest since the creation of the modern Arab order. In addition, there is this wave of foreign initiatives presented under the cover of reforming current Arab conditions.
Regardless of the American proposals regarding reform in the Arab world, one should admit that there are several faults and drawbacks that necessitate reform. If the general stance is to reject the reform plans imposed from outside, then it becomes important that the Arab reaction should be by to take some serious action. Arabs should endorse and implement their own reform plans, deal with the roots of the problems, according to well-defined plans. Their actions should not be temporary and arbitrary reactions to proposals presented by other parties. At the same time, rejecting foreign reform plans should not be used as an excuse to maintain the status quo that has led to stagnation and widespread dissatisfaction in several Arab countries.
Given these conditions, it is vital to develop an Arab strategy towards Iraq. The GCC states should take the initiative in this regard as the future of Iraq will have ramifications on the entire Gulf region and the Arab world in general. Failure to act promptly and effectively to plan their own future will motivate others to plan it in a way that serves their own outside interests.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The GRC"s interest in the Iraqi question is not a temporary one. It is an interest stemming from the center"s mission and goals. Iraq is a central protagonist in the Gulf region and current events in Iraq are considered to be of grave importance in determining the future of the whole region.
Accordingly, the center is issuing a specialized academic series entitled "Iraqi Studies," both in Arabic and English, publishing serious academic contributions that deal with Iraqi issues on domestic, regional, international and foreign affairs. The center also dedicates part of its annual report, published every January, to Iraq. Besides, the center has prepared, published and translated several studies and reports on Iraq, the most important of which is a paper that presents an economic strategy and a proposed policy for the GCC states to follow in their dealings with Iraq. All these works are available on the center"s website at www.grc.to.
Emanating from our belief in the vital importance of exploring the views of the Iraqis on the future of their country and since most of the previous opinion polls in Iraq have been carried out by foreign parties or by Iraqis for the benefit of the occupation authorities, the center took the probably unprecedented initiative of conducting a large opinion poll in Iraq on some of the current Iraqi issues. The research team has finished its field work in Baghdad and at the moment the data is being entered and analyzed. The center will post the full results on its web site and will also publish them in book form.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Once again I would like to welcome you to the GRC, wishing you a pleasant stay and much success in this workshop. I am certain that your sound contributions and rich discussion will help explore the future of current events in Iraq. It will also help develop practical suggestions on how to deal with them in order to create a better future for Iraq and save the region from any adverse outcome as a result of unwanted scenarios. Iraq is a very rich country with its very own natural and human resources that will enable it to rise again after years of persecution, wars, embargo and suffering.
The center welcomes your outstanding academic contributions that will be presented to our readers in Arabic and English. These contributions will also be available on our web site at www.grc.to.
Finally, I would like to wish you all the best of luck and success and I look forward to meeting you all again at future events.
Thank you.
Almost all political observers agree that the US-led war on Iraq, or what has come to be known in IR literature as the Third Gulf War, has exposed the modest role the European Union plays in the Gulf region. The Gulf region, as Europe"s main source of oil, certainly assumes special strategic importance for the European economy. It is, in a limited but highly significant sense, part and parcel of Europe"s national security zone. The US-British war against Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein culminated in a de facto occupation whose duration remains unpredictable, to say the least. The only sure development is the marked expansion of the US role in the Gulf region, which began to consolidate itself in the wake of the Second Gulf War executed by a US-led international coalition to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqi occupation.
Given these critical regional developments and the mutual importance the EU and the GCC states hold for each other and in view of the limited space academic and scientific circles, whether based in Europe or in the Gulf, have allocated to the EU-GCC relationships, the GRC organized a two-day workshop entitled "The EU Role in the Gulf Region." It was held on 7 and 8 January 2004, through which Europe"s role in this delicate part of the world was tackled.
The International Institute for Management Development (IMD) and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) conducted a Forum whcih addressed "Mobilizating the whole organization for Superior Customer Orientation," held on Wednesday, December 17, 2003, at Emirates Towers, Dubai.
Making customer orientation is not just an objective. It is a full management process and a corporate culture. The scheduled one-day conference discussed what ingredients were necessary to mobilize the whole organization for a better customer orientation. These included "hard factors", i.e., management processes that must be put into place, and "soft factors" such as a corporate culture. From a management viewpoint, these included an organizational structure designed around the customers, key performance indicators oriented towards them and human resources policies, including incentives geared towards the customer. The ingredients of a customer culture included empowerment, treating staff as customers and changing the role of a manager to "servant" leader.
The conference was chaired by Jacques Horvits, Professor of Service Strategy, Marketing and Management, IMD. Speakers at the conference included prominent businessmen from regional and multinational corporations, as well as senior government officials, who shared their experiences on these critical issues. Companies who have practically incorporated these factors illustrated each of the levers and ingredients. The participants analyzed how good their companies are in this area through a self-diagnosis tool distributed at the beginning of the meeting.
Leading scholars, diplomats and political commentators are convening to discuss the Legal status of intervention, preservation of state sovereignty, and nature and powers of post conflict mandate authorities, with reference to the current situation in Iraq. The following issues and ideas will be considered over the six sessions of the workshop:
• Lessons of the US-led war on Iraq
• Protecting civilians and infrastructure, Rule of law (law enforcement,
justice system, human rights) Civilian Policing.
• Crisis management & Humanitarian assistance mechanisms
• Financing crisis management – division of labor between Arab states
• Role of NGOs & assistance task teams the prospects for an Arab Joint
Logistical Center
• Arab Humanitarian Information Center.
A United States led attack on the government of Iraq looks almost inevitable. The only way a large-scale invasion of Iraq by US troops could possibly be avoided is either if a section of the Republican Guard stages a pre-emptive coup, the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein dies or if the government of Iraq agrees to United Nations demands for the supervised destruction of its remaining weapons of mass destruction capability. For different reasons none of these options looks very likely. The US alternative will be a short but intensive air war of up to three weeks, followed by an invasion of up to 350,000 troops from Kuwait and Turkey.
It goes without saying that a large-scale military operation to depose the regime of Saddam will have huge ramifications not only on Iraq, but also on all the countries of the region. To shed light on the possible adverse consequences, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation and coordination of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIS) held a workshop at the GRC office in Dubai, 16-17 February 2003, and discussed the most important ramifications related to the US military intervention and changing the Iraqi regime on the Gulf countries especially the direct impact on their internal policies, the economic and social conditions. Distinguished scholars and experts in the affairs of the region also discussed the legal, political and administrative aspects of this intervention and their effects on the sovereignty of the State. They also stressed the importance of the need to maintain law and order and to prevent acts of violence against the followers of the regime. They also noted the important role to be played by international organizations, non-governmental organisations and human rights groups to prevent abusing the principle of intervention.
The economic and strategic importance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, have significantly enhanced the importance of the issues of security and stability in these states and rendered them pivotal not only to the involved countries, but also to regional and international parties, especially the United States which is now the only superpower in the aftermath of the Cold War, and other countries which mainly depend on the Gulf oil.
In spite of the fundamental changes and developments which have taken place in the Gulf region since the late seventies of the twentieth century such as the Islamic revolution in Iran, the First Gulf War between Iraq and Iran which lasted for about eight years, and the Second Gulf War which broke out after the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in August 1990, and its adverse ramifications on the region, in spite of all that the GCC states managed, in varying degrees, to maintain their political stability as indicated by the perpetuation of the hereditary regimes, relatively smooth succession in most of these countries, low level violence indices as compared to most Arab countries and ministerial durability. Such political stability is based to a considerable extent also on many factors related to the oil boom, substantial oil revenues and the distributive welfare policies which led to the emergence of rentier states and consequently asserted the sources of traditional legitimacy as represented by the family, the tribe and religion as well as the interest of the ruling elites in preserving these sources, in addition to the weak political opposition groups and their lack of interest in the policies governing the internal security in these countries. The keen interest of some foreign forces particularly the United States in protecting the ruling regimes and maintaining their stability after the security agreements which the GCC states, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, signed with the United States have also contributed to their security and political stability.
On the other hand, the GCC states are facing many current and potential, internal and external sources of political instability. The Dubai-based Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) held a workshop on the most important external factors and their potential ramifications on political stability in the GCC states.
These external, regional and international, factors that could potentially destabilize the region mainly include: The current conditions and future developments in Iraq, the condition in Iran and the prospects of the internal conflict between the reformists and conservatives, the current conditions in Yemen, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the conditions in the Indian Sub-continent, the recent developments in Afghanistan, oil prices in the world market, the US policy towards the Gulf, the US war on terrorism and the information and communications revolution.
The workshop sought to find answers to many important questions which mainly include:
