Gulf Studies Symposium
March 4 & 5, 2024
Conference
Washington, DC
On the sidelines of the GCC-ASEAN Summit, scheduled to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 20, 2023, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) organized a workshop entitled (Relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and ASEAN countries)
Issues: Status of Relations, Priorities, Development of Cooperation
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) will hold a webinar on the ‘Repercussions of the Crisis in Palestine-Israel: An Initial Assessment’. The webinar will feature key experts from the GRC:
The experts will discuss the following questions: - How does the conflict affect the region and abroad? - What are the political, security, and economic impacts? - What role can the international community play in ending the conflict? - What does this mean for the US/Saudi/Israel talks, and the normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel? - What are the reactions from the Gulf? The EU? The US?
The upcoming dates for GRM 2023 will take place from July 11-13th
GRM 2022 Meeting
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) organized a Policy Forum that addressed a range of policy issues related to the Gulf region. The Forum outlined the main findings of the Gulf Strategic Analysis 2022 report by the research team of the GRC. This report provided an overview of the regional developments during the past 12 months. At the forum, the key findings were discussed in two panel sessions focusing on the key current political/security and economic/energy policy issues impacted with the Gulf region. Show more
The GRC is co-hosting an open dialogue with Major Groups on Stockholm+50. Major Groups (constituencies) play a key role
in shaping environmental and sustainability
agendas. They bring new ideas to the table
and discussions. It is very important that Major
Groups talk to each otherʼs as well as talk to
various stakeholders (business, science,
media, governments, etc.) globally. Only by
open dialogue humanity can agree on
collective actions to overcome the various
environmental crisis that we are facing today
and make sure that humanity is on the right
sustainability track.
The objective of this event is to have an open
dialogue session on various
topics/themes/dialogues related to
Stockholm+50 between global Major Groups,
local CSOs, environmental activists, media,
businesses, science, and governments.
The main purpose is to give different major
groups a space to express their opinions,
voices, concerns, and experiences and present
their key messages to Stockholm+50.
On January 12, 2022, the Gulf Research Center held a webinar discussion on the topic of “Green Mobility in the GCC: Opportunities and Challenges.” The objectives of the event was to examine the status of green mobility in the GCC countries, look into recent innovations and business development activities for electromobility solutions in transport and automotive industries across the GCC countries, evaluate the pros and cons of different green mobility solutions and what is best for the region, highlight the obstacles facing green mobility in the GCC region, and better understand the role of green mobility to help achieve carbon neutrality in the GCC.
The focus on the webinar was on the main outcome of the Climate talks in Glasgow in November 2021 and its implications for the next two COP Meetings which will in fact be held in the MENA region - COP 27 in Egypt and COP 28 in the United Arab Emirates. The discussion also included the issue of energy transition given that this is a key topic for the GCC region.
Dr. Abdulaziz participated in Session 1 of Tafahum 2nd Annual Conference: The Path Towards a Regional Security Process for WAAP Region: Obstacles and Opportunities at the end of 2020
The Gulf Research Center is organizing a
digital roundtable discussion on October 28, which will address "The
Future of the Gulf Economies in the Age of Sparsity".
We have invited a diverse panel of experts to give their perspectives on the subjects of fiscal sustainability and debt, business attractiveness and FDI, and diversification efforts and the role of the state.
The discussion will answer the following questions:
· How will
the gulf economies manage small budgets that will be defined through a new
fiscal contract with business and society?
· Will a new
social contract be devised in light of the new fiscal realities?
· How will
the region manage to attract international investor appetite?
· Can the
local private sectors carry the burdens of investment?
· What is
the role of the State and the private sector in the next decade?
· Is diversification a possibility in the coming years?
The discussion will be moderated by Dr. John Sfakianakis, Chief Economist and Head of Research at the Gulf Research Center.
The event will take place from 9am-11am Pacific Time (7pm-9pm Riyadh time)
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_KDsCj6rFQtuRMRM4t9cl-Q
For any other event-related questions,
please contact the meeting coordinator, Ms. Al-Anoud Khalifah at
alanoud@grc.net.
The second workshop for WG1 was a hybrid event entitled 'From Shared Challenges to Joint Venture: How the Energy Market and Entrepreneurial Initiatives have been Impacted by and Emerge from the COVID-19 Pandemic". This workshop focused on the ongoing economic transformation and energy diversification in conjunction with the COVID-19 pandemic
The Gulf Research Center is organizing a digital roundtable discussion on September 28, which will address the question “Should GCC national oil companies target net zero emissions by 2050?”
Oil industry leaders Shell and BP have both officially announced their targets to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, including for their “Scope 3 emissions,” i.e. those emissions caused by the use of their products. Should GCC national oil companies follow in their footsteps? While other European companies are moving in that direction, US-based ones are not.
We have invited a diverse panel of experts to give their perspectives on this question, and at the end of the session we will hold a virtual vote to measure the views of the audience.
The discussion, which will be held under the Chatham House Rule, will be moderated by Prof. Giacomo Luciani.
The event will take place from 16:00-17:30 Riyadh Time. We kindly request that you confirm your attendance no later than Thursday, September 21.
Register in advance for this webinar: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_s13eIIwETdmMrVkh-55A-Q
Please note that this is a closed discussion.
For any other event-related questions, please contact the meeting coordinator, Ms. Al-Anoud Khalifah at alanoud@grc.net.
Dr. John Sfakianakis, GRC Head of Economic Research Program will be speaking at the Mashora Group September 24th, 2020 webinar entitled "MENA POST COVID" Economic Recovery & China's Role."
This is the second workshop of the Tafahum WG2 "Environmental Issues and Climate Change in WAAP", which was held as a semi-virtual event on 22-23 September 2020 in Bonn, Germany. This working group was in cooperation with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Two key topics were addressed. The first session discussed the latest developments of COVID-19, its impact on all countries of the region as well as its repercussions for environmental issues, in addition, the discussions also focused on the interconnectivity of environmental and health challenges and how to approach this nexus. The second session was dedicated to the topic of water security. water management as key challenges in the region and governance.
Dr. Abdulaziz, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center will be speaking at the e-Policy Circle 12 organised by the Beirut Institute on the theme of 'Stability Redefined' on Wednesday July 22, 2020 2:00pm GMT http://www.beirutinstitute.org/
The first virtual roundtable in the Tafahum Working Group 1 will focus on economic transformations and questions of energy diversification in conjunction with Covid-19 pandemic in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula
The third Virtual Roundtable for the Tafahum peoject, focusing on the interrelations between COVID-19 and climate change & ways of boosting regional cooperation on measures to help curb severe effects of climate change
The first Virtual Roundtable for the Tafahum project on the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the regional order
The Gulf Research Center, in its mission to produce high quality research and analysis on the Gulf region, will therefore be holding a closed webinar discussion in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, held under the Chatham House Rule, which will focus specifically on how the COVID-19 pandemic is currently impacting regional security in the Gulf, in addition to ways that it could continue to affect Gulf security in the aftermath of the crisis.
The interactive discussion will address the following topics and questions: The pandemic caused a shift in state security priorities. Will this lead to a relaxation of global priorities for counter-terrorism? The pandemic had significant negative repercussions for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Could the Iranian regime face a popular uprising, more serious before? The pandemic coupled with the collapse of oil prices and caused major economic and financial hurdles for the Gulf states’ armament policies, and arms deals already agreed. The pandemic could increasingly lead to a shift in US security priorities worldwide. A US confrontation with China is not only possible but probable. Will this lead to a relaxation of US security priorities concerning the Gulf region?
The Gulf Research Center, in its mission to produce high quality research and analysis on the Gulf region, will therefore be holding a closed webinar discussion in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, held under the Chatham House Rule, which will focus specifically on how the COVID-19 pandemic is currently impacting the Gulf economy, in addition to ways that it will continue to affect the Gulf economy in the aftermath of the crisis.
The interactive discussion will address the following topics and questions: Fiscal and budgetary challenges: What fiscal and monetary means do Gulf economies have at their disposal? How much do they need to do and for how long can they sustain low oil revenues from a fiscal and budgetary standpoint? Is this a dejavu of the 1990s fiscal constraints or is this different? Labor and unemployment risks: How will labor markets react? Will the private sector be able to cope with job creation challenges? Will unemployment rise over the short to medium term? What can policy makers do? Debt and currency constraints: Debt will inevitably rise for all Gulf economies. What is the impact of rising debt on Gulf sovereign ratings and corporations? Do debt sustainability thresholds matter? Will this impinge on their ability to borrow more in the future. How will their currencies be affected in a low oil price environment? Is the question of devaluation back? Private sector growth and entrepreneurship: How will the private sector fare in this new economic environment? Is the private sector locked in a dependency cycle with government spending or is there deleveraging? Will the private sector be able to grow independent of the government? Will rent-seeking behavior change and evolve into more competitive practices? What is the future of the Gulf private sector? Are the much talked-about SMEs taking off in the Gulf? The future of industry: The impact on industry will be vast in an era of trade retrenchment and de-globalization and localization. What will Gulf industries do and how do they adapt in this new environment? Will some have a head start than others? What is the comparative advantage in industry for Gulf economies? Is this a good time to rethink individual country-industrial strategies?
This is the second session of the Working Group 5. This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Reconstruction Efforts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. This workshop will look at the need for a regional stability paradigm and the importance of the role of education for post-conflict reconciliation
This is the second session of the Working Group 3. This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Counter-Terrorism and Security Sector Reform. This workshop will look on the concept of a regional security paradigm, as an initial step towards more effective regional integration
This closed seminar held under Chatham House Rule, looked at Austria’s relations with the GCC countries and especially Saudi Arabia, including diplomatic relations, economic relations and security and defense cooperation. In addition, speakers gave an overview of the various international organizations headquartered in Vienna that focus on international nuclear security and the member country dynamics within those organizations especially as they relate to the Gulf countries.
This is the second session of the Working Group 4. This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Media Narratives and Discursive Integration in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula. This workshop will look at the discussions on how to develop education and training in media literacy and secondly look into whether or not (and how) such a regional media comfort zone can be created
This closed seminar held under Chatham House Rule, looked at the United Kingdom’s relations with the GCC countries and especially Saudi Arabia, including diplomatic relations, economic relations and security and defense cooperation. In addition, speakers gave an overview of the role of UK media in influencing domestic and foreign policy and how those dynamics can influence its relations with Gulf countries. During the seminar discussions, participants had the opportunity to engage with senior policy officials and academics on these key issues.
This is the first annual conference for the Tafahum project. This closed conference held under Chatham House Rule, will further outline and discuss how dialogue, cooperation and coordination on topics of shared interest and concern in the region can be structured.
For more details on the GRM 2019 please click here
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Security Sector Reform and Counter Terrorism. This workshop will try to examine the nexus between women and security through the lens of counter-terrorism. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Media Narrative and Discursive Integration. This workshop will appreciate the variety of media landscapes in the region to make better sense of public discourse and narratives on a national and regional level. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Reconstruction Efforts in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. This working group aims at developing a conceptual framework with concrete guiding principles for the reconstruction and reconciliation efforts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Environmental Issues and Climate Change. This is the first session of this working group
This closed workshop held under Chatham House Rule, will look at the theme on Environmental Issues and Climate Change. This is the first session of this working group
For more details on the GRM 2018 please click here
With respect to its unique and distinguished position in the Islamic world, the Makkah Region is now preparing for the world’s most significant construction endeavor relative to its magnitude, and its numerous urban, service-related, and cultural development projects that are currently underway. In the forefront of these is the Grand Mosque Expansion Project, the largest of its kind in history. This huge undertaking will also be supplemented with billions of Saudi riyals going towards developing facilities and services in the city of Makkah and Islamic holy sites, which are now being prepared for development. Falling under the government strategy to best serve Hajj and Umrah pilgrims, these development, service and investment projects will inevitably lead to the diversification of the facilities, services and development in cities and governorates throughout the Makkah Region. Therefore, the purpose of this conference and exhibition is to introduce this huge network of projects and services, both those that are in the early stages of implementation and those which are expected to be completed within the next few years.
Nonetheless, the primary objective of this conference and exhibition is to shed light and true understanding on the future of Makkah’s infrastructure, cultural and service sector development in the coming years. In addition, the aim is to send a strong, informative and important message not only to Arab and Islamic countries but to the rest of the world that Saudi Arabia is exerting all its efforts and working with utmost diligence to build, serve and develop this Region that is so dear to the hearts of all Muslims. In doing so, the conference and exhibition will present video and audio material concerning current and future projects within the Grand Mosque, holy sites and throughout the city of Makkah and other cities and governorates of the Makkah Region. These will highlight the facts surrounding Saudi Arabia’s continued maintenance and service to the Two Holy Mosques, Islam’s other holy sites, and the countless Hajj and Umrah pilgrims, the care of which has gone uninterrupted throughout the history of this blessed country. Indeed, the facts presented will respond to any unreasonable accusations to the contrary.
Under the patronage of His Royal Highness Prince Khaled Al-Faisal bin Abdulaziz, Advisor to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, Governor of the Makkah Region, President of the Makkah Region Development Authority and Chairman of the Central Hajj Committee, the conference and exhibition organizing committee would like to emphasize the importance of participation in the various major ongoing projects and their implementation in addition to the future projects in the city of Makkah, the holy sites, and the remaining cities and governorates in the Makkah Region. It is our humble aspiration that the conference and exhibition will fulfill this purpose, God willing
Gulf Research Center, European Council on Foreign Relations
The conference brought together thought leaders from Iraq and several GCC countries for two days of private, structured discussions. The dialogue is focused on intra-regional relations and supporting efforts at more fully reintegrating Iraq into the Arab world. Iraq’s reintegration and the normalization of its relations with its Arab neighbors has been undermined both by the reckless regional policies pursued during the Saddam Hussein era and by the rising sectarian tensions that characterized the post-Saddam period. The current moment sees two countervailing trends: shared regional concerns about the spread of ISIS in particular and violent Jihadi Salafism in general, and escalating sectarian polarization, most notably in Syria and Iraq. In light of this backdrop, this proposed dialogue would seek to support the current efforts to improve Iraq’s ties with its Gulf neighbors, and the dialogue would initially reflect this by addressing mutual perceptions, common and diverging interests, and developing ideas for bilateral, multilateral and regional cooperation. With the rise of ISIS and the spread of sectarian conflict, the need for dialogue is acute to further regional security cooperation, avoid increased polarization and accidental escalation, and maximize post-ISIS stabilization and reconstruction efforts.
For more details on the GRM 2017 please click here
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in collaboration with the Middle East Institute will be holding a workshop on the issue of “Yemen: Finding a Way Forward” on Monday July 17, 2017 at the Middle East Institute Office in Washington D.C.
This timely event comes at a time while prospects for ending the Yemen conflict face persisting political and security challenges and the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen perseveres despite international aid pledges.
The workshop will attempt to shed light on the status of the political process and negotiations to settle the conflict, on the current humanitarian situation inside the country and to discuss a forward-looking development agenda to be implemented both while the conflict continues and ones a resolution to the crisis is found.
The workshop is particularly meant to provide a forum from which key Yemeni experts and stakeholders can provide their perspectives on the issues defining the Yemeni situation and to be able to engage with a wider audience on the prospects for conflict resolution mechanisms.
Five years have passed since the initial uprising against the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, the poorest nation in the Middle East. The failed political transition of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in 2011 has turned the state of Yemen into an arena of power struggles amongst various factions fighting for control. Yemen now suffers devastating humanitarian conditions, including 2000 deaths and counting, around one million displaced, and over 12 million on the brink of famine with no access to healthcare as political solutions over the years to resolve the conflict have proven to be nearly impossible. Therefore, ending the war in Yemen is vital and needs to become the international community’s priority for not only will it be for the future of Yemen’s own security and stability, but for that of the entire region, as conflict spillover remains to be a serious threat to neighboring countries.
It is in this context, throughout the next several months, the Gulf Research Center will be hosting a series of workshops in the United States and Europe, involving major stakeholders in the conflict, which will result in the publication of seminar reports on the best way forward to bring peace and security to Yemen. In order for workshops to be comprehensive of the multidimensional nature of the conflict, each event will address a specific theme or “layer” of the conflict, therefore ensuring that the debates are focused and lead to tangible conclusions and recommendations.
Over the years, the Gulf Research Center has been especially active in research on Yemen, and this expertise, in addition to its unique position among other think tanks to bring a “Gulf” perspective to regional politics, make it especially relevant in putting forward solutions to the ongoing conflict in Yemen.
For more details on the GRM 2016 please click here
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) are holding a “European-Saudi Arabia Dialogue Meeting” at the ECFR offices in London
Given the deepening regional instability in the Middle East, the need for Europe to have a more informed strategic engagement with Saudi Arabia is becoming ever more apparent – and urgent. Following the official Middle East-focused European Global Strategy Review meeting hosted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in January 2016, the ECFR and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) will be convening a group of prominent and well-connected Saudi specialists and analysts together with European policy makers and analysts with the aim of gaining a better understanding of Saudi thinking and positioning in the region, as well as exploring areas for better alignment and cooperation in regional policies.
Europe’s understanding of the Kingdom’s interests and polices is too often clouded by a lack of knowledge and given the Kingdom’s centrality to any hoped-for stabilizing drive, ECFR and GRC are aiming to help facilitate a more informed strategic dialogue.
The conversation between the two sides will be driven by events in Syria but will also look at the broader situation, including in Yemen as well as the fall out of the Iranian nuclear deal. An additional focus will to explore the reasons behind, and the impact of, current Saudi energy policies and how that fits into the regional geo-political context. From a European perspective, it will be useful to explore what the Kingdom is seeking from its European allies, but also to test out ideas with Saudi officials and analysts in terms of cementing areas of convergence and working through areas of divergence.
Both the ECFR and the GRC are well placed to draw on both European and Gulf thinking and allow for such dialogue to occur. The event will be structured as an off-the-record event with a private dinner starting on Monday 4th April with senior officials and opinion formers from the worlds of politics, the media and academia, followed by a full-day workshop on Tuesday 5 April to allow for in-depth discussion on the issues outlined above.
Conference organised by the NATO Defense College Foundation in cooperation with the Gulf Research Center Foundation, the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, the NATO Defense College and the University of Jordan.
ROME, 25-26th of February 2016
Venue: Sala Anfiteatro – Auditorium Via Veneto, Via Vittorio Veneto 89
The Arab revolutions, the present turmoil together with the US-Iranian peace overtures, have changed in a significant way the strategic landscape of regional security even in countries where no political upheaval was experienced. In addition non-state actors increase significantly the risk of disintegration of countries in the area, while regional hegemonic competitions complicate an already volatile situation. In this difficult context there is a clear need to understand how external powers interests can be reconciled also through a web of partnerships and co-operative security arrangements
It is therefore important to analyze the perceptions and consequences of this changing environment. This is seen as the key to overcome short-term political turmoil as well as diplomatic disarray and craft effective policies guaranteeing the security and sovereignty of all countries of the area.
The NATO Defense College Foundation and the Gulf Research Center Foundation intend to better understand the roots of this geopolitical uproar, to put together different views on different priorities and to explore possible future outcomes. The purpose of the conference is ambitious but the time has come to tackle the right fundamental issues. The conference is structured in four panels. It has a circular structure consisting of two distinct and intertwining sets: one on soft strategic factors and one on hard security.
The Gulf Research Center Foundation is pleased to invite you to join the INCONET-GCC 2 International Conference entitled: Collaboration for Innovation; Linking GCC and EU on December 6-8, 2015 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Muscat, Oman.
INCONET-GCC 2 is a European Commission funded project which aims at establishing a Science, Technology and Innovation International Cooperation Network between the European Union and the Arab Gulf Countries aiming at the bi-regional coordination towards HORIZON2020.
The Gulf Research Center Foundation is part of the consortium of this innovative and ambitious project and we hope you will be able to join the debates & exchanges.
This international conference is organized by the INCONET-GCC 2 consortium and will gather around 100 representatives from all over the world. The first day, December 6th is dedicated to on-site visits to local Technology Parks, Incubators and Research Organizations. The second & third days will present the state of EU-GCC cooperation, collaboration opportunities & benefits as well as barriers to overcome, with a focus on Energy and Healthcare as well as Smart Cities, which have been identified as sectors of mutual interest and benefit between the EU and GCC countries.
For your information, the INCONET-GCC 2 project is the follow-up of the results of previous cooperation activities with the Arab Gulf Countries (INCONET-GCC 1st phase) as it focuses on selected societal challenges of mutual interest identified during the previous collaboration. INCONET-GCC 2 explores how to achieve win-win collaboration across national, multidisciplinary and cross-sector approaches, while also realizing and underpinning new-path-breaking kinds of capacity-building and organizing clustering activities around the selected research priorities: smart cities, smart energy & eHealth.
If you wish to participate in this conference, please contact:
Sébastien Lévy at slevy@items-int.eu
or Sylviane Toporkoff at stoporkoff@items-int.eu
Please feel free to forward this information to any of your colleagues who may be interested to join this conference.
For more details, please also visit: http://www.inconet-gcc.eu/
For more details on the GRM 2015 please click here
The Gulf Research Center, the Geneva Center for Security Policy and the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University convened in Gstaad for their annual discussions on developments in the Middle Eastern region. Bringing together renowned regional, security, and policy experts in order to assess the overall situation in the Middle East, the meeting focused on the changing strategic landscape and the geopolitical and regional dynamics at play, an assessment of the state and implications of the Arab Revolutions, as well as an in-depth look at the situation in the Levant, Turkey, North Africa, the Gulf region and Israel and Palestine. The meeting underlined that the Middle East was undergoing fundamental shifts and transitions including a move from state centric approaches to non-state issues and from a national to a transnational focus. With vacuums appearing in many place, the question of who or what will fill the vacuum is of central importance.
The Gulf Research Center will host the third annual Think Tank Security Forum in Geneva from June 10 to 11, 2015 bringing together think tanks from different countries and regions of the world to give an assessment of the current global security environment.
In addition to participants outlining what they see as the most pressing security challenges from their own regional perspective, a core theme of the meeting will to focus on “Extremism, Violent Non-State Actors and State Strategies: Outlook and Direction.” The theme of extremism and state strategies is relevant given that its impact is being felt worldwide. Not only are all governments today challenged by extremist threats but in many parts of the world one is witnessing the rise of non-state actors that are challenging the very legitimacy of the state. What this means is that finding a response to the combination of extremism and violent non-state actors has risen to the top of the policy agenda.
A summary of the discussions will be provided following its conclusion with select paper being published in a compiled volume. For further interest in the Think Tank Security Forum series, please contact Sanya Kapasi under sanya@grc.net.
In September 2014, the Gulf Research Center together with the Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh will hold the Gulf Forum 2014 under the title of “Arabian Gulf and Regional Challenges” The conference will bring together prominent personalities to discuss over a period of two days the key developments impacting the Gulf region and the consequences for both regional and external actors. The conference will be divided into seven sessions focusing on the GCC and Regional Changes; Challenges pertaining to development in Iran, Iraq and Syria; the Impact on Gulf Security of Regional Political Transformations, unconventional and asymmetrical challenges; external powers and the security of the Arabian Gulf; Gulf Security and the role of rising powers; and finally, future perspectives. Given the numerous developments taking place in the entire Middle Eastern region, the Gulf Forum 2014 is a timely event that could not happen at a more critical and opportune time.
For more details on the GRM 2014 please click here
The Gulf Research Center, in partnership with the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and the Crown Center at Brandeis University, hosted the 12th Annual Conference on the Middle East in Gstaad, Switzerland on June 20-2, 2014. The conference brought together about 25 renowned regional, security, and policy experts in order to assess the current situation in the Middle East and North Africa. During the meeting, participants discussed the Arab Revolutions, the overall geopolitical and regional dynamics as it pertains to the Levant, Turkey, the Arab-Israeli issue, and the situation in Iraq, Iran, and the Gulf region. There was a session on the current nuclear negotiations with Iran and what it means for the wider region and its relations with outside powers. A policy brief summarizing the discussions has been released by the Geneva Center for Security Policy.
The Gulf Research Center Foundation held the second meeting of the Think Tank Security Forum (TTSF) on June 18 and 19, 2014 in Geneva, Switzerland. The aim of the Think Tank Security Forum is to create a platform for key think tanks in the world that focus on security issues to exchange knowledge, staff and best practices as well as to cooperate in order to propagate high-quality research. This platform is based on the commitment of each institute to exchange resources and ideas in order to develop to come up with an authoritative security agenda for today’s ever-changing global landscape. In the second meeting, plenary sessions were held on the changing global geopolitics, migration, and energy security and its corresponding challenges.
The Gulf Research Center and Chatham House hold workshop on GCC-UK Relations
With the regional Middle Eastern environment facing a period of unprecedented turbulence, the Gulf Research Center and Chatham House held a two-day workshop in London on June 12 and 13 to explore the various dynamics of developments in the Middle East and the Gulf and the implications this holds for GCC-UK ties. While the UK and the GCC states can look back on a long period of close ties defined by many common interests, the discussion at the workshop pointed to the many new challenges that have emerged including the perception among the GCC states that the policies by the Western states including the UK have further exacerbated many of the regional crises. Participants agreed that mutual strategic interests still prevail, but there was also a sense from the GCC side that UK regional policy suffers from a degree of credibility and trust. The discussion further highlighted the fact that a return to some form of stability was an extremely complex undertaking and that one needed to look at regional issues from both a short- and long-term perspective.
The national economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has achieved unprecedented accomplishments not only in the Middle East Region, but also on a global level, especially in recent years, after the Kingdom was ranked as one of the richest twenty countries in the world, combined with the growth, strength and high flexibility achieved by the Saudi economy. This has enabled the Kingdom to overcome the global financial crisis that hit the global economy since 2008, while the consequences of subsequent economic aftershocks are still affecting most of the global economies. This proves the strength of the Saudi economy and its ability to grow as confirmed by the figures of the State Budget and the surplus achieved over the past years.
Proceeding from the mission of the Faculty of Economics and Administration in King Abdulaziz University in promoting scientific academic research, and serving the community, especially after the great success achieved by the Conference at its first edition held during the period of 7- 9 May 2012, the College will launch the second edition of this Conference (National Economy: Challenges and Ambitions) during the period of 22- 24 April, 2014. This Conference will discuss several key issues related to the reality and the future of the national economy and its impact on citizens, especially with regard to the economic sectors related to services. All this will take place within the framework of discussing the challenges and how to achieve the ambitions in this area.
Gulf Research Center and Arab–German Chamber of Commerce and Industry
The Gulf is experiencing significant new challenges to its security and to traditional thinking about its security policies. Some Gulf leaders fear a perceived reduction of American commitment to the region. The prospect of a negotiated agreement on Iran"s nuclear program has destabilized long-established security norms and practices. Syria"s war has become an arena for proxy competition between Iran and the Arab Gulf states, with significant risks of blowback from new jihadist groups and an expanding regional battlefield. The Arab uprisings have driven controversial new domestic and regional political initiatives to ensure regime stability within the Gulf. A newly assertive effort by some Gulf states to influence political outcomes in key regional countries such as Egypt has included support for its new military government and a broad campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, Gulf states have committed significant resources to these policies which could pose new challenges to fiscal security over the medium term. In response to these perceived new threats and opportunities, Gulf states have clashed with the United States and have considered new forms of regional integration and cooperation.
This workshop, organized in collaboration with The George Washington University and Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Doha, will bring together scholars from the United States, Europe and the Gulf, and comes at an important time to consider in depth the new security challenges and responses. The three panels held over the course of the day will look at the GCC and Iran"s Nuclear Program; Islamist Movements and Sectarianism; as well as Transnational and Human Security Issues.
Based on the event, there will also be a panel organized at MESA 2014 in Washington. Other deliverables will include several policy briefs, a roundtable report and a journal article.
The policy briefs resulting from the Venice meeting have been published and can be accessed here:
The Gulf Research Center and the Al-Ahram Center are hosting a workshop on the issues of Gulf states unity to be held in Cairo, Egypt. The workshop will bring together specialists and policy officials to look in-depth at the political, economic, security and defense aspects of Gulf integration and provide recommendations on how to operationalize the Gulf union concept. During the discussion, the various Arab views on Gulf integration will be elaborated on which in turn with inform the policy process. The workshop is part of a larger project the Gulf Research Center is conducting on the issue of GCC unity.
Energy trade always constituted a major chapter in EU-GCC relations. The EU has established new, ambitious targets for reduction of emissions by 2050, which envisage a substantial decline of the role of traditional fossil sources such as oil and gas. In parallel, the GCC countries have manifested growing concern for their own energy future and excessive dependence on fossil fuels, and have launched multiple initiatives for improving the uptake of clean energy solutions.
As part of the EU-funded public diplomacy project on “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC Relations”, EPU-NTUA in cooperation with the Gulf Research Center and Masdar Institute are organising a Renewable Energy Policy Experts’ workshop hosted in Masdar Institute, Abu Dhabi on November 26-27, 2013. The 2-day workshop is actively endorsed by the EU-GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK, an initiative created jointly by the EU and the GCC to catalyse cooperation among the two regions on clean energy topics of common interest.
Within this framework, the event aims to discuss at high policy level the potential for cooperation in the promotion of clean energy. This will encompass both opportunities for bilateral agreements in various areas as well as exploration of common positions (or debate of points of divergence) with respect to negotiations in multilateral fora.
The workshop is divided into five sessions focusing on:
• EU-GCC energy policy co-operation in the field of Renewables: Status and Prospects
• Promoting co-operation on Energy Efficiency & Demand Side Management
• EU-GCC co-operation potential in the field of Renewables: Technology and Research perspective
• EU-GCC co-operation for integration of Renewables in the Grid
• Promoting EU-GCC co-operation on Water and Power generation
Each session will be introduced by a background paper followed by moderated discussion among the participants. Limited selected experts are invited to contribute to this high level event, including academics and specialists, members of various research institutes and policy officials from both the EU and the GCC side. The workshop will result in a publication to be produced in early 2014.
Twenty-seven students from the six GCC countries took part in this training session organized by GRC in the framework of the project “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC relations” funded by the European Commission. The students from the GCC were selected according to their fields of studies, either international relations or politics studies, and for their interest in issues linked to the European Union. The group included undergraduate students, graduate students, and young professionals. Five students from Brussels were also selected for the program to give the GCC students a different viewpoint on EU issues and a better insight into student life in Europe. The schedule of the training was divided between lectures, informative sessions, meeting with professionals, and visits. The training session provided GCC students with the opportunity to acquire deeper knowledge about the EU as well as to develop direct contacts with students from Europe, EU professionals and academics.
The Gulf Research Center Foundation in Geneva will host the 1st GCC-Swiss Forum, to be held from September 3 to 4, 2013 at the InterContinental Hotel Geneva. This pioneering event will serve to identify the multi-faceted opportunities as well as address the status quo of the bilateral relations between Switzerland and the countries of the strategically important Arabian Gulf region. There will be plenary sessions on GCC-Swiss Economic and Political Relations as well as on Energy, Tourism, Banking & Finance and Education. Particular attention will also be paid to the recent Free Trade Agreement signed between the EFTA and GCC member states, and the opportunities this brings about for future GCC-Swiss relations. In addition to formulating a concrete set of policy recommendations that can promote and advance the diverse and growing ties between the two sides, the event will serve as an excellent networking opportunity between respective government and business representatives.
The GCC-Swiss Forum will bring together high-level representatives from both Switzerland and the Gulf region including numerous ministers, representatives from respective chambers of commerce as well as GCC and Swiss business leaders. We are pleased to be able to confirm that H.E. Maj. Gen. Dr. Abdul Latif bin Rashid al Zayani, the Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council and H.E. The Vice President of Switzerland, Dr. Didier Burkhalter, have already confirmed their attendance and will address the event as keynote speakers. If this event has caught your interest, please register online today
For more details on the GRM 2013 please click here
The Gulf Research Center, the Geneva Center for Security Policy and the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University held the 11th edition of their Middle East Annual Conference in Gstaad, Switzerland from June 28-30, 2013. Bringing together 25 specialists, the conference focused on the geopolitical and regional dynamics of the Middle East, an evaluation of the Arab Revolutions including developments occurring in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and the Maghreb, as well as an overview of the domestic politics and the various security implications when it comes to the Arab Gulf States, Iran, Iraq, Israel and Palestine. The meeting concluding with a panel on US policy and implications.
On May 7, 2013, a group of decision-makers from Saudi Arabia attended a day-long meeting at NATO Headquarters where they were briefed by senior NATO officials on the role of NATO in the Gulf region, its policies, and the status of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. Wide-ranging discussions about NATO-Gulf relations also took place. The visit was organized by the Gulf Research Center under its long-standing commitment and ties with NATO. Among the key speakers from the NATO side were James Appathurai, Acting Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy; Ambassador Stephen Evans, NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Operations; Nicola de Santis, Head, Middle East and North Africa Countries Section, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division; Ambassador Francesca Tardioli, Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Planning Directorate, Operations Division; Commodore Emil Eftimov, Deputy Director Cooperation and Regional Security Division, NATO International Military Staff; and Patrick Touzé, Head, Policy, Plans & Partnerships Section, Defense Investment Division. The group also met with Joseph Manso, Deputy Permanent Representative of the United States of America on the North Atlantic Council, and Sule Öztunç, Deputy Permanent Representative of Turkey on the North Atlantic Council.
As part of the EU-supported project on “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC Relations,” the Gulf Research Center (GRC) along with the College of Arts and Sciences of Qatar University, the Global Governance Institute and the Institute for European Studies at Vrije Universiteit Brussels, hosted a two-day workshop on “Promoting an EU-GCC Dialogue on Foreign Policy Issues” on the campus of Qatar University in Doha on April 29 and 30, 2013. The workshop was divided into six sessions focusing on EU-GCC Relations, Yemen, Global Governance, the Mediterranean region, Non-Proliferation Issues and Syria. Each session was introduced by a background paper and was followed by a lively and animated discussion among the participants. In total more than 70 persons took part included academics and specialists, members of various research institutes and policy officials from both the EU and the GCC side. The workshop will result in a publication to be produced in late summer 2013. For further information, also consult the project website under: http://eu-gcc.kcorp.net/
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) together with the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) hosted the panel discussion on “Security Implications of the Arab Spring” as part of the 10th International Security Forum held from April 22 to 24, 2013 in Geneva, Switzerland. Dr. Christian Koch, Director of the GRC Foundation chaired the panel discussion with presentations from Prof. Bahgat Korany of the American University on Cairo; Prof. Mohammed-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Head of the Regional Capacity Development Program at GCSP; and Dr. Mustafa Alani, Senior Advisor and Director of the Security and Defense Research Program at the GRC. The panel pursued three main questions – what security issues have been raised by the ‘Arab Spring’; how are these challenges playing out in the region and how are they been addressed by the different actors; and what are the implications in this changing security scene for the region’s international partners. All speakers highlighted the fluid nature of the situation while focusing on the phenomenon of the weakened state which in turn is highlighting the potential of an open-ended period of volatility for the entire Middle East. The presentations were followed by a lively debate and a question and answer session.
“The Podcast and panel summary is available on the ISF web site www.isf2013.ch”
The GRC represented by its chairman Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, Dr. Christian Koch, Director of the GRC Foundation and Noriko Suzuki, Director of the GRC Foundation, participated in the Korea-GCC Economic Cooperation Forum organized by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) and the GRC in Seoul, South Korea on Thursday, April 11, 2011. Prior to the event, a meeting was held with Mr. Dong-Geun Lee, Executive Vice-Chairman of KCCI to discuss further cooperation. As part of the Forum, Dr. Sager spoke about the current situation in the GCC countries, Dr. Koch focused his presentation about the development of economic integration within the GCC, while Noriko Suzuki highlighted the investment environment in Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.
The first day of the workshop “Political Transformation in the Arab world and its relevance for EU-GCC relations” organized by the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE), the Gulf Research Center and the Gulf University for Science and Technology (GUST) under the Project “Promoting Deeper EU-GCC relations” funded by the European Commission, concluded on Sunday, March 3, 2013 at GUST University, Kuwait.
More than 50 persons attended the 3 sessions, each followed by discussions with the attendants. As an outcome: high level presentations, interventions of great interest, and heated but fruitful debates!
After a welcome introduction from Robert Cook (Vice President for Academic Affairs, GUST University), Richard Youngs (Director of FRIDE), Christian Koch (Director of Gulf Research Center Foundation) and Haila Al-Mekaimi (Center For Gulf Knowledge, Kuwait University), the discussions moved to in-depth assessment of the political development in the Gulf region and what the implications are for the European Union. Given that the EU follows events in the region closely and the EU parliament has passed resolutions on the situations in Bahrain and the UAE, one of the objectives of the workshop was to allow for an exchange of views and provide a perspective from the GCC states about the impact that the Arab transitions are having on their part of the world.
The first session dealing with the Geopolitical implications of the Arab uprisings was chaired by Richard Youngs with speakers N. Janardhan, a political analyst from the UAE and Mohamed Ghanem Alrumaihi from Kuwait University. The panel presented the diversity of the changes following the Arab uprisings, highlighting specifically the extreme complexity of the new situation as well as the resulting different implications. While there was agreement that the Gulf region has been impacted, there was a divergence of views on the degree that the geopolitical changes would force the GCC states to undertake their own reform effort in the near term. One participant mentioned that the GCC states were not facing an ‘Arab Spring’ but an ‘Oil Spring’. Much of the discussion also focused on the role of political Islam and what that means for the further developments impacting the Middle East.
The second session dealing with Domestic implications of the Arab uprisings was chaired by Kristian Coates Ulrichsen from the London School of Economics with speakers Prof. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla from the UAE and Hasan Al-Hasan, also from the LSE. The speakers explained how unlike other Arab countries, in the GCC there has been a strengthening of the status quo resulting in some change but also much stronger continuity. The monarchy system certainly has been challenged but they have also shown their resilience. Overall, there is a need to put developments in their broader context. To what degree the EU has handled the issue of human rights in a balanced way proved a serious point of debate.
The third session entitled Beyond identity politics: a role for civil society? was chaired by Jane Kinninmont of Chatham House with speakers Guido Steinberg of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin, Germany and Ahmed Al Omran of RiyadhBureau.com. The speakers presented the role and the evolution of islamist movements as part of the civil society, focusing on non-violent actors, transnationalism and Sunnite-Shiite sectarianism. The role of social media was also presented, through the example of their development in Saudi Arabia, as a tool to bypass the governmental restrictions regarding civil society organizations. Much of the discussion focused on the relationship between citizenship and entitlement and the impact this had had on the concept of national identity.
The workshop will continue on Monday, March 4 with the focus on the role of the youth in the Gulf and a wider discussion on what all of the developments mean for the relationship between the EU and the GCC
As part of the EU-sponsored project on "Promoting Deeper EU-GCC Relations" a 22-member group from the six GCC took part in a one-week training program on 'Understanding the Institutions and Policies of the EU and EU-GCC Relations.' The program is headed by the Gulf Research Center with the support of the Institute for European Studies at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and the Global Governance Institute. In addition to lectures on aspects of the EU, participants held meetings with members of the European Parliament, the European External Action Service and the European Social and Economic Committee.
For more details on the GRM 2012 please click here
Bringing together regional, security, and policy experts in order to assess the current situation in the Middle East, the Gulf Research Center, the Geneva Center for Security Policy and the Crown Center at Brandeis University are once again hosting a roundtable in Gstaad, Switzerland. During the meeting, an assessment of the Arab Revolutions, the overall geopolitical and regional dynamics as it pertains to the Levant, Turkey, the Arab-Israeli issue and the situation in Iraq, Iran and the Gulf region will be discussed. A summary of the proceedings will be published as part of the Geneva Papers of the GCSP. The meeting is by invitation only.
The Gulf Research Center Foundation with its seat in Geneva is organizing an afternoon roundtable discussion on “Regional Developments in the Gulf Region: Implications for Switzerland and Europe” on June 14, 2012 from 16:30 to 18:30 at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva.
For those unaware of the Gulf Research Center Foundation, the foundation is the official non-governmental arm of the Gulf Research Center with the purpose to gather and disseminating knowledge about the critical Gulf region. In 2011, the GRC was rated the second most influential think tank in the Middle East by the annual Think Tank Survey of the University of Pennsylvania. For more information about the GRC, please consult our website under www.grc.net
In cooperation and with the support of the Italian Naval Staff College (Istituto di Studi Militari Marittimi) and the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, the Gulf Research Center will host the first Think Tank Security Forum in Venice, Italy on the grounds of the Italian Navy Staff College. The meeting will bring together leading security think tanks from around the world in order to discuss the key security challenges being faced from different regional perspectives. One of the objectives of the gathering will be the production of a Global Security Agenda 2011 publication that will outline what the key threats to security are and the manner in which these can be best addressed. The meeting is by invitation only.
Globalization has demolished barriers and increased economic interdependence. This in turn has positive and negative consequences for national economies. On the positive side, the rate of investments and capital movement among states has increased. On the negative side, the recent global economic crisis, including the US financial crisis and the debt problems of some EU countries, seriously impacted the world economy, especially developing economies.
As a reaction to the global economic crisis, governments, officials of national and international institutions, and academic institutions have engaged in studying and analyzing the various aspects of the crisis in order to understand its causes and consequences and to design strategies for dealing with the impact. They also seek to be better prepared in case such crises occur in the future. In addition, they want to evaluate the impact of the crisis on the economies of the developed and developing countries and study the challenges they faced and the solutions they adopted to deal with the new international economic environment.
The challenges facing the Saudi economy in such an unpredictable international economic environment led King Abdulaziz University – represented by the Faculty of Economic and Administration – to hold a conference titled "Saudi Economy: Challenges and Opportunities."
The wider Gulf region is a critical component in concerns about global stability and security. No area of the world has captivated the daily headlines in the past decade as much as the region that encompasses the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), Iran, Iraq, Yemen and beyond that the adjoining areas of Central and South Asia – primarily Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Greater Middle East with its perennial Arab-Israeli conflict. The events of 2011 and the corresponding ‘Arab Spring’ has cemented the spotlight even further.
For better and for worse, the Gulf will remain the focal point of attention in the coming years. Iraq continues to struggle in its attempts to bring about a more stable domestic political environment while the continuing dispute over the Iranian nuclear program holds within it the potential for another round conflict. In addition, the circle of instability that surrounds the Gulf stretching from Palestine, to Afghanistan, Pakistan, to Yemen, Somalia and Egypt will undoubtedly contain regional and international repercussions. Added to all of this has been the unprecedented wave of political change that has swept through the Middle East since the beginning of 2011. This wave has impacted the GCC as well including Bahrain and Oman most prominently. With the added domestic political dimension, the specter of Gulf security has been broadened by another factor.
To properly comprehend Gulf dynamics, the area of focus needs to include the immediate regional actors (the six GCC states, Iran, Iraq and Yemen), the wider regional neighborhood (Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Somalia), and the broader international community (the United States, Europe, Russia and increasingly Asian countries such as China and Japan) in a complex system of interaction where significant stakes are at play. Moreover, Gulf security cuts across a host of overlapping and complex factors including concerns about energy security, terrorism, weapons proliferation, border disputes, political development, education, human rights, climate change, just to name some of the more obvious examples.
Within this environment, the GCC states have attempted in recent years to carve out a role for themselves with the objective to promote a policy of dialogue and cooperation that could ultimately serve as a basis for better and more structured security relations both within the region and with external actors. The US-led war on Iraq in 2003 served as a catalyst in the sense that the GCC states were forced out of their slumber to recognize that its almost exclusive reliance on the United States as the sole security guarantor for the Gulf had not brought about a more secure regional environment. Instead, a series of antagonistic relationships remained in which the voice of the Arab Gulf was hardly heard and the national interests of the GCC were rarely recognized.
With its preeminent position in world energy markets and buoyed by large budget surpluses that have since 2003 in particular led to the GCC’s tremendous overall development, the Arab Gulf states have shifted gears and sought to interact with all parts of the globe in unprecedented ways. This can be seen as part of an effort to explore new relationships and find different mechanisms that could contribute to regional stability. The involvement with the rest of the world is thus being increasingly defined by the GCC states themselves instead of having outside policies being exclusively imposed on them. The involvement of both Qatar and the UAE in the NATO-led operations against Libya beginning in March 2011 is symbolic of the determination to shape policy instead of being shaped by it. Moreover, the rising importance of the region in economic terms, especially for the world economy in the wake of the global financial crisis, serves as a powerful magnet drawing the attention of various powers to the issues defining Gulf security. In this context, the Arabian peninsula’s location as a half-way point between Europe, Asia and Africa not only represents the crossroads for world commerce, it has wide-ranging geo-political and geo-strategic consequences as well.
To properly understand the complex dynamics that are driving regional and international developments, The Gulf Forum 2011: The Gulf and the Globe will explore the various challenges that exist and identify the strategies that need to be employed by the GCC states to promote their interests and contribute to more concerted efforts for regional stability and security. The Gulf Forum 2011 will further provide a platform for all those concerned with the region’s outlook to outline their policies and how they themselves can assist in moving the region out of its perennial cycle of conflict.
The Crown-Belfer Middle East Project is an initiative centered at Harvard University"s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. It brings together Middle East experts from all universities in the Boston area (Harvard, MIT, Boston University, Boston College, Brandeis, Tufts, etc.) for discussions of policy-relevant issues concerning the Middle East.
This event held with the Middle East Institute will include an examination of recent developments in the Gulf in the wake of the Arab Spring. The speakers will address the crises in Yemen and Bahrain, US-Gulf relations and the question of reform in the region.
Together with the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, the Gulf Research Center will be holding a panel discussion on the current situation in the Gulf region and the challenges for US policy. The session will be moderated by Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President and CEO of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations.
The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia has for decades been strong and important to both countries, creating a mutual dependency based on oil and security. Relations have periodically been subject to tensions, notably after September 11, when the predominance of Saudi citizens among perpetrators led to strong U.S. criticism of Saudi policies. At present, tensions have risen yet again due to the divergent reactions of Washington and Riyadh to the Arab Spring. The speakers will discuss how the post-September 11 crisis was managed and resolved as well as how the present crisis is being addressed.
The Gulf Research Center will be holding a two-day roundtable discussion on the current situation in Yemen with a particular emphasis on how the current regional and international political situation will impact existing and future development trends in Yemen. The workshop will explore the different scenarios that could come into play when it comes to the future of Yemen, to analyze in-depth the various development implications involved and to explore the ways and means in which regional and international institutions and organizations can work together to target their assistance and to increase their effectiveness.
The workshop will take place on the sidelines of the 2011 Gulf Research Meeting from 7-8 July 2011 at the University of Cambridge, UK and is supported by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) GmbH, working on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The workshop will bring together specialists, policy officials and representative of donor agencies including numerous persons from the GCC states as well as from Yemen.
For more details on the GRM 2011 please click here
Under the patronage of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz "The Gulf-Africa Investment Conference 2010 - Fostering Economic Relations" was held in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from December 4 to 5, 2010 organized by the Council of Saudi Chambers in partnership with the Gulf Research Center. Thereby, the Kingdom is underlining the importance of the Gulf-Africa Investment Conference and stressing the commitment to developing the strategic relationship with the countries on the African continent.
The Gulf-Africa Conference brought together key leaders and personalities from government, business, academia and media to outline the issues and challenges facing more constructive economic and business-to-business relations between the key regions of Africa and the Gulf. The focus of the meeting was looking specifically into the various investment opportunities that are presenting themselves including the relevant strategies required to turn initial plans into more concrete actions. This includes opportunities in areas such as agriculture, minerals and natural resources, energy, telecommunications and infrastructure, as well as tourism and trade development. In all of these instances, the Gulf-Africa Conference was a unique gathering that added substance to much of the present rhetoric about GCC-Africa ties.
Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Centre of Islamic Studies, University of Cambridge
Gulf Research Centre, Cambridge
In collaboration with:
Sablat Oman and the Omani society in Manchester
Discover the Unknown
20 November, 2010
Rooms 8 & 9, Faculty of Asian & Middle Eastern Studies, University of Cambridge
For a long period of time, Oman was unknown to many people and only a small number of Western travellers managed to explore the country and record their visit and observations. Today Oman is celebrating 40 years of change and development that has touched every part of life and not least the intellectual thought.
This event attempts to shed light on the unknown Oman and highlight some ideas about this enchanting country.
The Conference on Energy Security: Potential for EU-GCC Cooperation will be held on November 09-10, 2010 at the Diplomat Radisson Blu Hotel in
This high-level international conference is organized by the
The conference is one of the concluding events of SECURE, a research project funded by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme with the objective of building a comprehensive framework that covers the issues related to security of supply inside and outside the EU.
The conference will bring together some 150 energy security policy experts, among them Ministers of Oil & Gas / Energy from the region, representatives of the European Union to the Gulf Cooperation Council, Academics, CEOs of the major Oil corporations, civil servants and diplomats in the region.
The objective of the conference is to create a platform for discussion and dialogue on past, current and future energy security problems and solutions. The current and emerging energy and greenhouse gas challenges will also be addressed.
The conference will consist of six plenary sessions, introduced by a short presentation of SECURE research outcomes, followed by a panel of discussants composed of energy security policy experts from different backgrounds.
The third and final meeting of the GCC-India project meeting spearheaded by the Gulf Research Center and the Ministry of External Affairs of India will take place on October 16, 2010 at the GCC Secretariat in Riyadh. During this meeting, the final recommendations of the various working groups will be discussed and then put forward to the GCC and the respective foreign ministries. The GCC-India project is an eighteen months efforts that has as it core objective to assess the current trends and patterns of GCC-India relations from economic, political, security, educational, cultural, environmental and international political economic perspectives; and projecting a near and medium term horizon for deepening the already existing multifaceted relations. Particular emphasis is given to identify the potentials as well as challenges in a comprehensive effort to devise policy recommendations.
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) are holding a one-day workshop on “EU–GCC Relations and Global Economic Issues” in Brussels, Belgium. The event is being organized in the framework of the Al-Jisr project on EU-GCC Relations with the support of the European Commission. The workshop will bring together prominent economists and policy officials from both the EU and the GCC side as economic relations between the GCC and EU have been developing over a wide area of common interest, primarily defined within the context of a free trade agreement and economic diversification. The purpose of this workshop will be to analyze in more detail the dynamics of the global economic financial crisis, the related focus on currency issues, its impact on GCC economic integration as well as issues of international trade and financial regulation and how this impact the GCC-EU relationship. A particular focus will be on identifying areas in which the EU and the GCC can work together more closely and improve their coordination.
The
For more details on the GRM 2010 please click here
A third research project workshop on the challenge and potential of economic growth and diversification in the GCC. A team of specialized researchers from both regions will be constituted and given access to all resources in the hands of the project’s partners. Once again, the strategy to establish such partnerships will prove to be precious as the resources and expertise of each partner will be fully used. The research project workshop will deliver a number of integrated future scenarios to judge the region’s regional and international economic role as well as the shifting functions of state and business in it.
Energy Intelligence Advisory and Research (EIR&A) has once again examined the major and emerging supply regions, demand centres, and industry deals to produce an authoritative survey of the global LNG landscape. Presenting EIR&A annual World LNG Outlook: 2010 -2011, on the 25th of May at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai; Senior Analysts Ian Nathan and Rana Samaha will provide a critical look at drivers behind the rapid growth in this sector of the gas industry, as well as the short term and long term outlooks on both the supply and demand side. LNG in the medium term is faced by the reality of a global gas glut, which has created a buyer’s market of LNG as the launch of new liquefaction ventures chafe"s against sluggish gas demand during the global economic contraction. Yet, the incremental liquefaction capacity from both new and veteran exporters is helping LNG become an even larger portion of the world’s traded gas. EIR&A is the independent research and advisory arm of Energy Intelligence Group (EIG), which was formed in 1951 and is the publisher of, among others, Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW), the International Crude Oil Handbook and International Oil Daily. EIR&A publishes widely-used research tools, provides research services and advises a wide variety of corporate, governmental, educational, research and international organizations on important energy matters.
The Gulf Research Center and the Institute for Diplomatic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia began on Sunday, April 18th, 2009, a 3 day long Training Session on the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relations. The training session will focus on communicating basic facts about the EU, its history, policies and institutions. In addition to more specific issues between the two sides including political governance and dynamics as well as economic, trade and financial relations. Then conclude with recommendations for improving relations between the EU and GCC.
The
The project aims at strengthening energy cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC). A permanent network of institutions from the EU and the GCC countries will be established to act as a catalyst and coordination entity, in order to provide a practical instrument for the development of cooperation activities among various stakeholders in the EU and GCC countries on clean energy and related policy and technology aspects. The project and the eventual Clean Energy Network will address clean energy issues in the following areas: Renewable Energy Sources; Energy Demand Management and Energy Efficiency; Clean Natural Gas and related Clean Technologies; Electricity Interconnection and Market Integration; and Carbon Capture and Storage.
The informative meeting will take place in the offices of the Gulf Research Center in Dubai on April 1st, 2010 at 10:00 a.m. Prof. Giacomo Luciani, who is the Team Leader in the implementation of the EU-GCC Clean Energy Network project will address project objectives and content as well as the ultimate benefits of establishing the Clean Energy Network.
As part of the quartely briefing for Premium Members, analysts of the Gulf Research Center provided their assessment of the key issues dominating regional Gulf affairs during the first three months of 2010 from a regional security, international relations, economic and energy perspective. In his opening remarks, GRC Chairman Abdulaziz Sager gave a panoramic overview suggesting that while the first quarter of 2010 had been relatively stable, a broad array of challenges remain with the Iranian nuclear program, the situation in Yemen, and the implications of the global financial crisis staying in the forefront. Prof. Giacomo Luciani, Director of the Gulf Research Center Foundation in Geneva, gave his assessment of development in the energy sector by highlighting the oil contracts being signed in Iraq, the unexpected continued high demand for oil coming from China, and the issue concerning the oversupply of LNG and its implications for Qatar. Dr. Mustafa Alani provided an overview of the security issues by listing Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Afghanistan as the immediate areas of concern. On Iraq, he mentioned that while the election process went ahead smoothly, the result is greater uncertainty about the future political stability of the country. On Iran, the possibility of military conflict over the country’s nuclear program remains and possible Israeli action on this issue cannot be discounted. On the international relations front, Dr. Christian Koch, Director for International Studies highlighted the general disappointment of the region with the first year of the Obama administration, especially as far as the Arab-Israeli peace process is concerned, but he also expressed his view that the next few months might witness a more active American President now that the domestic debate about health care in the United States had been finished. Overall, the GCC states are continuing their policies to diversify their international relationships. A key indicator is that while no European Head of State had visited the GCC countries so far in 2010, the region had seen numerous dignitaries from Asia including the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s Emir had visited Brazil and Argentina. Finally, Dr. Mohammad Raouf, Senior Researcher for GCC Environment issues highlighted the growing relevance of more encompassing green economic policies for the region although the actual implementation within the GCC region remains slow and generally haphazard. For example, while the issue of water scarcity is acute, the problem lies more in water management than anything else. In the discussions that followed, much focus was on the outcome of the Iraqi elections, the validity of the oil contracts now being signed in Iraq, and the dilemmas facing the Obama administration as it tries to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.
This workshop will be hosted and organized by Bertelsmann Stiftung in
The GRC-FIRST Series of Lectures are organized by the Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Architecture and Software (FIRST). This first series of lectures will discuss: the Future of Information Technology (IT); some Information and Communication technology (ICT) research topics being developed in Germany-based FIRST; and the Fraunhofer model of innovation. Technology highlights will include digital dome projection systems and applications in the fields of medical and Electroencephalography (EEG) technologies. More generally, the lectures will highlight the future impact and challenges of informatics and ICT, emphasizing the merging trends between the media, communication and information technologies. From a broader perspective, various frameworks to promote innovation and private-public partnership will also be discussed, based on Fraunhofer best practices.
Gulf Research Center (GRC) and The Institute for the Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia at Princeton University present:
The Global Financial Crisis and the Gulf: Dubai"s Debt and the Future of Islamic Banking
Roundtable discussion at Princeton University
February 24, 2010
2pm-6pm, Jones Hall 202
After initial hopes of decoupling, the Global Financial Crisis has hurt countries in the
The roundtable will gather distinguished academics and practitioners to take stock of the current situation in the Gulf and discuss future scenarios. After assessing the impact of the global financial crisis on the Gulf, a particular focus will be on implications for Islamic banking whose growth prospects have dimmed while a possible global leadership role of the Gulf in this niche industry has been compromised.
The Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) have announced that the 2010 Jeddah Economic Forum will have as its theme "The Global Economy in 2020." As the premier event in the Middle East, the 2010 Jeddah Economic Forum will highlight the strategies required and/or anticipated for global economic development and growth, and bring together leading decision-makers, experts, businessmen and academics to discuss the outlook for the world economy in the next ten years in the key sectors of banking and finance, energy and the environment, trade, agriculture, industry, education, health, and science and technology.
Experts and officials are debating whether the end of the global economic crisis is in sight and recovery is gradually taking place. In contrast to looking at the current implications and causes, the 2010 Jeddah Economic Forum proposes to focus beyond the current crisis, at the shape and leading characteristics of the next phase of global growth, which will be well underway ten years from now. To be able to anticipate developments and take advantage of opportunities, the focus has to be on the state of the global economy in the next decade.
The growth phase that just concluded was dominated by the Reagan and Thatcher doctrine: liberalize, de-regulate, deflate the role of the state. This ideology has now clearly lost its appeal: the pendulum is swinging back. The question that is central is just how far back will the swing be? In this context, the 2010 Jeddah Economic Forum will debate various parallel shifts taking place in the global economy that could have relative importance in the upcoming decade. Key stipulations include:
· Financial intermediation will relatively lose importance; at the same time, manufacturing will recover some of its lost importance
· State investment in infrastructure and in key social services – notably education – will attract increased resources; this never stopped in the emerging countries, but the advanced industrial countries just will not be able to take their competitiveness for granted any longer.
· Growth will continue in the emerging countries, which will increasingly trade with each other and sustain domestic consumer demand. In contrast, growth in the industrial countries will be hampered by the need for restructuring (some sectors growing rapidly, others shrinking; private and public debt being slowly reabsorbed; preoccupations for inflation quickly following the liquidity-creation bonanza of the last few months).
· Environmental preoccupations will gain importance and governments will pay more effective attention - as opposed to just lip service – to preserving the environment. Climate change will be the main, but surely not the only environmental preoccupation on the agenda.
· Energy policies will be pursued in the industrial countries to diversify sources and reduce reliance on oil and gas. The same will happen in the Gulf countries, where the power generation fleet must urgently be diversified from exclusive reliance on oil and gas to a more diversified composition including solar and nuclear, possibly also wind.
· Major new technologies will be deployed to improve the efficiency of engines, the insulation of homes, the effectiveness of remote communications for work and interaction.
· Greater attention will be paid to agriculture: the drive to produce bio-fuels will be just one component of this – higher standard of living and consumption in the emerging countries will be a more important factor.
· Health issues are emerging as vital component of a sustainable policies’ package, as issues such population growth, urbanization, environmental changes, widespread poverty, increasing inequity, war and other conflict situations, as well as existing and emerging communicable and chronic diseases will need to addressed. This will emerge as a major component of impending economic considerations.
· Income distribution will again be regarded as important. In the industrial countries, policies will be adopted to give new life to the seriously weakened “middle class”; in the emerging countries, extremes of wealth and income concentration will be looked at critically and pressure will mount to address them.
In the meantime, some of the key questions that remain are:
· Will global trade liberalization survive the recession? For now, the answer is not clear-cut: while it is unlikely that the essence of free trade might be abandoned, it is possible that some limitations are agreed and introduced to protect against excesses.
· Will "new" multinational corporations be allowed to take over some of the ailing giants of the past?
· Will regional economic integration (trade, finance, monetary) make further progress?
The 2010 Jeddah Economic Forum will address critically the various aspects of the issues outlined above with the aim to move towards some form of policy consensus.
This workshop within the framework of the Al-Jisr Project on EU-GCC Public Diplomacy and Outreach Activities will explore the following questions: Can the
The Cooperation Agreement between the member states of the GCC and the European Union outlines the prospects for cooperation in a whole number of fields including cultural exchanges and education. In line with the launch of a higher education program for the GCC countries, the European Commission and the Gulf Cooperation Council will host a one-day Forum on December 7, 2009 in
The Forum will bring together prominent speakers from both the EU and the GCC side and highlight an important dimension in the growing GCC-EU relationship.
The
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Nixon Center of Washington, D.C. is pleased to announce a workshop on November 11 and 12, 2009 on the subject of “China’s Growing Role in the Middle East: Implications for the Region and Beyond.” The workshop will take place in the GRC conference room in Dubai and bring together about 25 participants from the Gulf region, the China, India and the US. Relations between the Gulf region and China have taken on multiple dimensions in the past years and it is important and necessary to take a more in-depth look at the strategic implications of this developing relationship. In addition to economic and energy issues which certainly serve as a driver for closer ties, there are also political and security dimensions that must be considered. The purpose of this workshop is to explore in more detail the dynamics that define Gulf-China ties and to analyze the perspectives that are presenting themselves for both sides. The meeting is also part of a study on the growing role of the major Asian countries in the Middle East.
The workshop was organised by the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) and the Gulf Research Center under the Al Jisr Project will focus on the status of political reform in the GCC states in order to provide a better understanding of the transition process occurring in these states. With human rights an integral part of the EU’s Free Trade Area negotiations, a thorough understanding of the drivers promoting political reform and an objective assessment of the reform measures being out in place is essential in order to better guide policy decisions. Among the issues to be discussed in this workshop are the roles of the Gulf monarchies as drivers of political reform, the role of parliaments and local councils, the prospects for judicial reform, the development of civil society, and the interaction between energy dynamics and political reform. A final discussion will look at how the political reform debate impacts on the overall GCC-EU relationship.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which was officially launched this January, has announced that its headquarters will be located in
The aim of the event is:
·To focus on the main renewable energy challenges that the
·To exchange views with different experts in this field
·Discuss concept, ideas, projects and policy options that could be proposed as road map to governments in the region
The Gulf Research Center, in association with the Center for International and Regional Studies at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar, organized the second research workshop of the "EU-GCC Al-Jisr Project on Public Diplomacy and Outreach devoted to the European Union and EU-GCC Relations".
This conference will consider the role of nuclear weapons in sustaining or undermining the security of the Gulf region. Its focus is on three linked concepts: extended deterrence, security guarantees, and nuclear proliferation. Its aim is to consider what kinds of conditions will be required to insure that extended deterrence and security guarantees continue to promote regional stability in and around the Gulf, as they have (for the most part) in the past; and conversely, what can be done to avert nuclear proliferation among the Gulf states and their immediate neighbors, as well as among extremist groups that seek to operate there.
The idea of extended deterrence is a product of the early Cold War. It reflected the shared concern of the nuclear Superpowers that the spread of nuclear weapons would complicate their relationship with each other, and make it more dangerous. Each accordingly declared itself willing to extend the protection of its nuclear arsenal to allies and clients. The widespread acceptance of this idea may seem surprising, to the extent that its credibility depended on the willingness of non-nuclear states to believe that their protector would expose itself to potentially mortal perils on their behalf. Nevertheless, it was widely believed that neither of the
Extended deterrence was supported by a system of security guarantees, most of which were of a familiar and traditional kind: a declared willingness by states to cooperate in each other’s defense, and to fight side-by-side in given circumstances. In the nuclear era, however, a new form of guarantee was introduced, one that was extended not merely to friends but to rivals and adversaries as well. States known to possess nuclear weapons promised not to employ them against any that did not, in exchange for a countervailing promise that states without nuclear weapons would not attempt to obtain them. This exchange of promises lies at the heart of the nuclear non-proliferation regime established in 1968.
Nevertheless, nuclear proliferation remains a major threat to stability in the
This conference seeks to explore the logic and functioning of extended nuclear deterrence and associated security guarantees in the
Such intervention, needless to say, would be profoundly destabilizing for the rest of the Gulf. So too would Iranian success.
The politics of nuclear weapons are also influenced by the politics of nuclear energy. Its attraction to states in the Gulf is a source of suspicion for some observers, who fear that such projects, particularly when conducted by states floating on an ocean of oil, can only be a mask for weapons development. Historically the connection between nuclear energy and weapons proliferation is not strong—though the fact that the Iranians have explained their own interest in nuclear technology in terms of a desire for nuclear energy has muddied the water in this regard. A number of
Attitudes toward nuclear weapons among
Israel is, in any case, but one of three nuclear-armed states—along with India and Pakistan—that have slipped the leash of the Cold War non-proliferation regime, and whose proximity to the Gulf necessarily influences attitudes toward nuclear weapons there. The picture is further complicated by the fact that all three of these governments enjoy warm relations with the United States—a source of reassurance, perhaps, but one that also casts doubt on America’s ability to extend the deterrent effects of its own nuclear arsenal elsewhere in the region, should that become necessary. It also suggests, somewhat ironically, that successful proliferators may have less to fear from the
Since the end of the Second World War protection from external threats in the Gulf region, for practical purposes, has been assured by the major oil-consuming states in the West. Their willingness to extend their military protection to the region was driven by their hunger for energy, and their determination to deprive the Soviets of influence and access there. The second of these motives has disappeared; though
The aim of this conference is to consider how, and how far, the logic and practice of extended nuclear deterrence and multilateral and bi-lateral security guarantees can be adapted to address current and future threats to stability in the Gulf. Military strategies calculated to ward off outsiders may not be readily applicable to the maintenance of regional stability, nor to containing rising regional powers like
Relations between the Gulf region and
The GCC-India Research Group is a two-year project spearheaded by the Gulf Research Center and the Indian Embassy in the UAE to assess the current trends and patterns of GCC-India relations from economic, political, security, educational, cultural, environmental and international political economic perspectives; and projecting a near and medium term horizon for deepening multifaceted relations. Particular emphasis will be given to identify the potentials as well as challenges to visualize a future trajectory in order to devise enabling policy regimes. The broad themes to be covered in the study can be identified as follows: Historical linkages and Current Patterns; Economic Relations: Trade, Investment, Labor Supply, etc.; Political Relations: Changing Geopolitical Spectrum and Foreign Relations; Security and Strategic Aspects; Energy and Environment; Education and Human Resources; Culture and religion; Medium term (5 year) and long term (10 year) Scenarios; and Policy Recommendations.
As part of the Al-Jisr project on GCC-EU Public Diplomacy and Outreach Activities, the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University and the Gulf Research Center will hold a two-day conference entitled: “The EU and the GCC: Challenges and Prospects under the Swedish Presidency of the EU” to be held in Lund, Sweden from June 8th to 9th, 2009. The meeting will bring together around 30 academics and government representatives from
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center on the occasion of the 12th Kronberg Middle East talks of the Bertelsmann Foundation and held in Riyadh with the cooperation of the Institute of Diplomatic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia and the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies launched the Arabic version of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI).The BTI was translated from English and published in Arabic by the Gulf Research Center. The BTI is a bi-annual global ranking that measures and compares transformation processes worldwide on the basis of detailed country reports. The BTI is unique in the sense that is a qualitative rather than a purely quantitative assessment of how countries have progressed vis-à-vis one another in a number of categories. Speaking at the event that launched the Arabic version, Mr. Sager emphasized that the
The outlook for the GCC countries in April 2009 is one of cautious optimism. The global financial crisis has underscored the links in the global economy, and in this sense the GCC states are certainly not immune from the negative repercussions of the current downturn. Any hopes that they could decouple from the general trend have proven to be wishful thinking. For example, some sovereign wealth funds have lost more than 30 percent of their assets; there has been a dramatic increase in refinancing costs for cash strapped corporations and a precipitous decline in the price of oil from a high of nearly $150 in July 2008 to almost $30 at the outset of 2009.
But while the consequences of the economic crisis have certainly been felt, there is also a lot of exaggeration and fear-mongering in current media coverage of the region. The fact is that the GCC countries are in a privileged position to deal with the present situation. Oil prices are likely to recover due to global supply constraints even in a scenario of sluggish demand. While the various diversification efforts in the Gulf in heavy industries trade and tourism have arguably reached critical mass, these efforts will not simply disappear. At reduced price levels, they can in fact offer good value. Furthermore, due to their accumulated savings, the GCC governments have the ability to step in to provide stimulus and bridge financing for various ongoing projects. Far from being a dark scenario, there are many silver linings to be explored.
On the regional security and political fronts, the picture is more uncertain although here as well there are developments that reflect a sense of cautious optimism. Overall, the security concerns have increased for the GCC states over the past six months with piracy and international maritime security having been added to the continuing challenges as exemplified in the volatile security situation in Iraq, the deep concerns over the Iranian nuclear program and the Islamic Republic’s expansionist policies in the region, and the ever-present threat of terrorist activities within the Gulf region. The unstable situation in
At the same time, the election of a new administration in
Dr. Thomas Demmelhuber, lecturer at the Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg in
In the Gulf, according to Demmelhuber, there is a much more limited EU foreign policy approach despite a comprehensive package of trade and security interests. Negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been suspended in December 2008 after more than one decade of negotiations. Demmelhuber asked the question: Is it only the factor “oil” that makes the normative agenda towards the Gulf region less absolute? He argued that the EU faces political, economic, and social settings in the Gulf that are simply not conducive for the effective deployment of standard EU forms of cooperation. On both sides the lack of sufficient institutional capacity, the supremacy of geo-economic issues, the retaining strong bilateral ties of some EU member states, and the lack of political will in particular on behalf of the EU are responsible for the low profile of EU foreign policy in the region. Demmelhuber concluded by saying: “I even dare argue that the EU is now paying the price for the decades-long neglect. It does not show the flexibility to come up with an alternative foreign policy concept that might work vis-à-vis the Gulf.”
After his 40 minutes talk the floor was opened for the Q & A section with much of the questions and comments revolving around the reasons for the neglect of the Gulf in the EU foreign policy. Whereas some asked about any possible blueprint for EU/ GCC relations arising from EU’s foreign policy in other regions, others stressed the necessity to be a bit more patient. The EU has only recently started to embark on a more active role in the region, so one should give both sides more time.
The limited availability of freshwater in the Gulf region has for decades presented a significant challenge to the people and the governments of the region. Scarce rainfall, together with a high rate of evaporation and consumption, leads to deficits in the water budgets of the countries of the region.
GRC and Asia Society will host a Panel Discussion on Water Scarcity titled “Water and Security: Mitigating Risks through Cooperation”. The meeting will witness the launch of Asia Society’s report on Water Security “
Institutional relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and the European Union have to be filled with life by deepening cooperation between the people and institutions of both regions. In the context of the Al-Jisr project on GCC-EU Public Diplomacy and Outreach, the
of special relevance to current affairs. The composition of the workshop participants will be balanced among EU and GCC representatives. Finally, tailor made dissemination activities will ensure that the widespread diffusion of the workshop outcomes will reach not only high level policy makers, but also academicians and key market actors from GCC and EU.
Nowadays, global warming poses certain constraints to energy usage with direct impacts on the international economic activity. In this respect, the determination of prospects and opportunities for the development of a sustainable energy economy is of outmost importance in order to pass from the current carbon constrained economy to new sustainable development paths.
In particular, the key shared interest on the above issues ranks high on the EU policy agenda and without a doubt the relevant cooperation with GCC Countries could be further developed. While there is a widespread view that the GCC region participates in the world energy scene through its vast oil and gas reserves, with little concern for environmental impact and with little incentive to invest in alternative sources of energy, there is a changing dynamic. Indeed, the use and development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), Rational Use of Energy (RUE) as well as CO2 Capture and Sequestration could make a significant contribution to improving environmental protection and to guarantying continuation of oil supplies in conditions of stability and security. The GCC region offers massive business potential for national, regional and international companies involved in the power generation, lighting and RES energy industries. The potential development of RES in the GCC region would have mutual benefits for both the EU and the GCC countries. In this framework, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently committed large funds to the climate fund from the last UN conference in Bali.
Based on the above, the current workshop envisions combining policy and technical expertise for the discussion of policy implications and opportunities of greater collaboration, in what has to be seen as a future green energy market. The final aim of the workshop is to further enhance the EU-GCC relations in key energy and climate change cooperation issues.
In addition to traditional partners like the
A first Al-Jisr research project workshop is the first in a series to look at the challenge and potential of economic growth and diversification in the GCC, including an analysis of how the benefits of the expected Free Trade Agreement (FTA) can best be reaped. The specific topics to be addressed within the framework of the larger research project are:
· the GCC economies’ comparative strengths and weaknesses related to the labour market, unemployment and migration; female participation in the economy; and education and economic development.
· changes in the Gulf business environment with respect to privatisation and government ownership, business regulation, and the strengths and weaknesses of the private sector, as measured by global indicators.
· the potential for economic diversification (downstream integration into refining, petrochemicals and other energy-intensive industries and its implications for EU industry and the global environment; the competitiveness of Gulf industry outside of the above-mentioned sectors; and the potential for specialisation in other services, including tourism).
· domestic energy consumption in the GCC countries including domestic pricing of various hydrocarbon and the recent trends towards acquiring a nuclear power generation component.
· the Gulf financial sector, focusing on trends of regulatory change, financial diversification, regional and international consolidation of banking intermediaries, the Gulf’s potential as regional and global hub, and the behaviour and future of the GCC’s Sovereign Wealth Funds.
· GCC monetary unification, discussing future scenarios of exchange rate policy, currency pegs and monetary policy.
· the Gulf region’s future position in the global economic context, with special reference to relations with the other Asian countries, with the European Union, the Mediterranean Arab countries, Iraq and Yemen.
On the basis of these sectoral and institutional lines of research, the project aims to arrive at a number of integrated future scenarios to judge the region’s regional and international economic role as well as the shifting functions of state and business in it.
The election for the next
The scope and depth of the
The number of questions associated with the future direction of US Gulf policy is long and complicated. Much of the focus will be on the continued military presence in
Beyond the political and military angle, there are a host of other issues that impact on the US-Gulf relationship including concerns over energy security, the role of the US dollar in Gulf financial markets, the overall position of the oil-producing states as a rising force in global financial affairs, and the impact of the global financial crisis on both the US and the regional economy. The new
The GRC is firmly convinced that a thorough assessment and analysis of US Gulf policy is both warranted and required. The fact that a changing of the guard will occur in
Objectives of the Gulf Forum 2009
· To undertake an assessment of the current status of
· To highlight the position of the GCC states and to analyze in-depth their foreign and security-related policies.
· To explore practical realities and to look at the policy steps being implemented by the regional states.
· To begin to understand the kind of policy approaches that can be expected from the incoming
· To outline the parameters of a US policy in the Gulf region that balances the need for security and a US presence in the area with the prerogatives of internal stability and more cooperative set of regional relations.
Experts’ views of the capabilities and the potential role of the private sector in promoting economic and political reform in the Arab world are sharply divergent. Some view the private sector as still being primarily subordinated to the government and depending on government expenditure or other forms of government protection to be able to achieve profit in business. It is pointed out that there is a lack of international competitiveness except in sectors, such as petrochemicals, which are formally privatized but in fact still closely controlled by government; a lack of transparency and openness to international investment; excessive dependence on government contracts or other business opportunities essentially influenced by government decisions and initiatives. A contrasting view has emphasized that the private sector in the Arab world has come a long way since its beginnings in the 1970s and has now acquired capabilities that it did not have in the past. Therefore, while the picture of a business sector subservient to the government might have been correct 30 or 40 years ago, it is no longer accurate today. Besides, many private business groups have also greatly increased their financial capabilities through international investment and are increasingly engaging in business that caters to open and fairly competitive markets. The declared strategy of Arab governments to increasingly rely on the private sector is opening further opportunities for private sector investment and growth, progressively tilting the balance in the equation.
Pointing to this development, the Gulf Research Center Foundation (GRCF) and the Arab Reform Initiative have launched a two-year research project entitled “The Role of the Private Sector in Promoting Economic and Political Reform,” to explore ways in which the Arab business community can contribute to the progress and modernization of the region. In a comparative analysis, several Arab countries, including the GCC states, are being assessed. The overarching aim of the project is to conduct research on the capabilities and attitudes of the private sector towards economic and political reform, opening the door to a more sophisticated understanding of the evolving reality. The active involvement and participation of the region’s business communities therefore is of crucial importance and constitutes an integral element in guiding the academic work.
The project got off to a start on January 4, 2009, with a workshop at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry followed by a meeting at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in
The
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Nixon Center of Washington, D.C. will hold a workshop on November 12 and 13, 2008 on the subject of "Gulf-India relations." Relations between the Gulf region and
On November 2, 2008, Fihir Abuateeq, Dr. Eckart Woertz and Nathan Hodson of GRC gave a briefing at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) about an ongoing consultancy project about sustainable development and cluster based industrialization in the three governorates of Al Rabigh, Al Leith and Al Qunfudah. The workshop was attended by dignitaries and executives from the three regions and form institutions in Jeddah such as ministries and government agencies. It served to get input from various stakeholders in to the ongoing consultancy project, a final report will be released by January.
With relations between the Gulf region and East Asia expanding, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Henry L. Stimson Center of Washington, D.C., held a half-day workshop on October 9, 2008 to discuss the draft report of the National Intelligence Council entitled Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the center for mid-term and strategic thinking of the
The meeting included an introduction explaining the scope and context of the Global Trends 2025 report followed by a discussion of the overall approach, major trends and scenarios. The meeting then opened for a general discussion of specific issues of interest discussed in the report including the rise of emerging players, a new transnational agenda, the prospects for terrorism and conflict, the question of whether the international community would be up to the challenges that a shifting world presents, and role of the United States in a new multi-polar environment.
As part of the cooperation between the
The meeting on maritime issues is an open exploration of current realities and emerging concerns in the
The WIR is the world’s authoritative compendium of trends in foreign direct investments (FDI) and is published annually. The press conference will outline the major findings of the WIR 2008 with regards to:
The earth’s finite natural resources and the environment are under tremendous pressure today. Indifferent human activities are taking their toll and governments across the globe are fast realizing the need to stem this tide, introduce corrective policies and pursue a path of sustainable development. |
| Program Brochure |
The objective of this meeting is to closely analyze and promote topics that are of current mutual interest between the EU and the GCC. It comes at a critical time when the institutional relations between
Given the increased factors of demography and population growth, this meeting will focus on GCC Migration and its History: Demographics and countries of origin, changes in the GCC expatriate population since the 1980s including from neighboring Arab countries to Asian countries as well as an estimation of the future population composition in the GCC. There will also be a comparison with the migration and integration experience of the
The first presentation will look at political and economic as well as military-economic relations between
The second presentation will discuss the possible local and global consequences of a military attack on
Bond markets, an indispensable means of financing and an important asset class, are relatively underdeveloped in the GCC countries. Much is left to be done in terms of government benchmarks, market makers, investor base and regulatory frameworks, although the number of issues and issue sizes increased considerably until the recent subprime crisis. The roundtable discussion will debate current issues relating to the nascent GCC bond markets.
India - one of Asia’s vibrant democratic states is poised at a great moment of her history. India’s soft power advantage especially her huge service-oriented human resources are increasingly reshaping her destiny in the global political economy. Simultaneously, India’s hard power posturing by acquiring nuclear weapons is gradually increasing her stake in global power configuration.
The lecture addressed the fate of national security states in light of globalization. The nature of economic globalization was analyzed and the effect of globalization on national security states and relations between such states was discussed for various classes of national security states. It was concluded that there is little evidence that globalization has transformed national security states significantly. They still constitute the primary form of organization and are the principal means of interaction. Some global effects and entities were noted but the current situation is that national security states are alive and well.
Workshop in Cooperation with Kobe University"s Research Institute of Economics and Business Administration (RIEB), Japan
The security environment in the Gulf region has dominated international headlines for over four decades. Beginning with the oil crisis in the 1970s and covering such events as the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1980-1988 War between Iran and Iraq, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and subsequent liberation of Kuwait in February 1991, the rise of Islamic militancy throughout the 1990s culminating in the attacks of September 11, and then the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, the issue of Gulf security has been a central focus of global political attention.
Given current and anticipated political, economic as well as strategic trends, the relevance and importance of Gulf security to the international community is not about to change. In fact, day-to-day events continue to underline the continued volatility of the region and its far-reaching impact. The situation of almost complete disarray in Iraq and the escalating tensions over the Iranian nuclear program are just the two most obvious examples. Overall, events in the first decade of the 21st century have contributed to a further deterioration in the regional security scene with the result that the possibility of another major conflict looms large. With oil prices already at record highs, any additional instability in the region is likely to have consequences all around.
Gulf security is thus a global and no longer simply a regional issue or phenomenon. The fact is that the Gulf region sits at the juncture of numerous overlapping and complex inter-relationships, all of which increasingly have international connotations. Gulf security is not only defined by a number of different policy issues – energy security, terrorism, weapons proliferation, border disputes etc. – but is also determined by the immediate regional actors (the six GCC states, Iran, Iraq and Yemen), to the wider regional neighborhood (Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Syria, Turkey, Israel, Somalia), and the wider international community (the United States, Europe, and increasingly also Asian countries such as China and Japan).
All of the above complicates matters greatly. And while there has been much policy-oriented as well as academic debate on how the cycle of insecurity in the Gulf can possibly be broken, no structured attempt has been made to bring together all the various views of regional and international actors towards the region. The emphasis has been on highlighting the perceived irreconcilable different approaches rather than looking for the common, even if minimal, denominators.
The GRC is firmly convinced that Gulf security issues will not only continue to dominate the headlines in the coming years but that unless a more concerted effort at crisis management is exerted, the consequences will be both devastating and long-lasting. At the outset and within this context, it must be understood that both the regional and international relationships that define the current and near-term environment will be framed within a security context. Any policy deliberations about the Gulf region will necessarily begin with a discussion focusing on the security situation with subsequent decisions departing from this initial point of view. Therefore, it is essential to have a comprehensive understanding of the various issues that define Gulf security in order to be able to construct a proper policy.
Objectives of the Gulf Forum 2008
· To make an assessment of the status of Gulf security and to look into the key components that define it.
· To highlight the position of the GCC states and to analyze in-depth their foreign and security-related policies.
· To look into how both regional actors and international powers view the issue of Gulf security and where their main emphasis and interests lie.
· To explore practical realities and to look at the policy steps being implemented by the regional states.
· To identify policy approaches that might help the region in overcoming aspects of the security dilemma and to see how other regions have overcome similar problem areas from a lessons-learned perspective
· To develop an action plan for overcoming some of the more persistent Gulf security issues and to promote relevant policy alternatives.
The visit by Amb. Schulte comes at a critical time as there are renewed concerns about the future direction and scope of the Iranian nuclear program and US-Iran relations. In addition to the IAEA’s report, there are also discussions in the UN Security Council over possible additional sanctions to be imposed on Tehran. This follows renewed pressure by the US which recently imposed its own unilateral sanctions on Iran. Given the widespread implications for regional Gulf security, it is necessary to fully understand the US position on this issue and get a sense of the direction that near-term developments could take.
The Middle East & Asia Energy Summit will address one of the most pressing issues of our time. Continuously rising demand, especially from emerging market countries like China, faces increasing supply challenges. Oil and gas extraction in a maturing industry requires more sophisticated technological solutions and huge investments, while the increasing cross border transport of energy calls for international cooperation. Geopolitical tensions have to be eased while innovative transport and strategic storage solutions have to be found.
The Middle East has 60 percent of worldwide oil reserves and 40 percent of worldwide gas reserves, about two thirds of its energy exports go to Asia, a dynamic industrious region that has developed into the “workbench of the world” and faces a striking lack of endowment with energy resources. Thus the dependence is mutual and the chances for cooperation manifold. The Middle East & Asia Energy Summit offers the opportunity to get first hand knowledge from senior speakers and industry insiders about issues such as:
• Asia’s growing oil thirst: Will the Middle East be able to quench it? The challenges of enhanced oil recovery
• Prospects of trade in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
• Country assessments: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and Iraq
• Petrochemicals and refining: The necessity of cross border
• Tanker shortages, pipeline projects and transport of refined products
• Strategic storage solutions
• Choke points and the management of geopolitical risk: The straits of Hormuz and Malacca
Filling a major gap in the Middle Eastern literature the book provides a comprehensive examination of the political and economic issues in the Arab world with a rigorous analysis of the data for the region.
“The October 2007 module of the Global Leadership Program focused specifically on security aspects from a practical perspective. Presentations were given on such topics as intelligence and security cooperation, the global security risk agenda, understanding the global terrorist threat, counter-terrorism measures, cyber-terrorism and cyber-war, terrorist recruitment and financing, using technology to counter security threats, terrorism involving weapons of mass destruction, critical infrastructure protection, border security the global security risk agenda, crowd management, special events security, understanding the global terrorist threat, cyber-terrorism and cyber-war, using technology to counter security threats, protection of oil installations, electronic crimes, and transport security/traffic control.”
The 8th annual Middle East conference sponsored by the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP), the RAND Corporation, the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) will take place in Gstaad, Switzerland from July 1-3, 2007. The conference will follow its traditional course of focusing on the changes and trends in the broader Middle Eastern security environment including looking at the regional and geopolitical dynamics, the Arab-Israeli conflict as well as the situation pertaining to Iraq and Iran nuclear program. The conference is unique as it reflects the views from the US, Europe, the Middle East region itself thereby providing a comprehensive assessment of the Middle East in 2007.
The purpose of this lecture presentation (to be followed by a discussion) is to illustrate the important role of market-based instruments or economic instruments in tackling different environmental problems. As a means of achieving environmental management objectives, non-economic regulatory measures have been adopted worldwide as well as in the Gulf region. Economic instruments are now being increasingly implemented in many countries, both developed and developing. The use of economic instruments should be of some relevance to GCC environmental policies at present as these countries are proceeding with economic restructuring, diversification, liberalization and privatization.
The Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE), the Gulf Research Centre (GRC) and EGMONT - the Royal Institute for International Relations are organizing a seminar to respond to the publication of the EU’s new energy security strategy and to debate those aspects of energy security related specifically to European foreign policies.
Rationale
During the last year, the Ukraine-Russia gas dispute, greater global competition for diminishing hydrocarbon resources and higher oil prices have jolted the European Union into debating the development of a comprehensive European Energy Policy. Europe"s increasing energy dependency, decreasing energy production and reliance on a small number of external suppliers have added to the urgency of these debates.
The Commission’s March 2006 Green Paper committed the EU to integrating energy issues more systematically into the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). It also promised that energy security would not compromise the EU’s commitment to promoting democracy and human rights. The Commission’s Strategic Energy Review published on 10 January 2007 further reinforced these commitments to a more effective energy security policy; this Review will now be debated by member state governments at the March 2007 EU summit.
In focusing on the foreign policy dimensions of energy security, our one day seminar will be framed around three broad issues:
a) Market versus geopolitical approaches:
Should competitive power-politics, expressed in bilateral deals/relationships with key suppliers prevail, or alternatively should key suppliers be incorporated into an international energy market? The seminar will explore this debate and the complex linkages between internal and external dimensions of energy security.
b) Can member state interests be reconciled and streamlined within a common European energy policy?
Member states currently pursue differing approaches to energy security. How can these different views be reconciled in one common energy policy? As the perception exists that energy security is one of the areas of greatest divergence and competition between national governments, it must be asked whether member states will really be willing to compromise enough to define a unified approach.
c) Will external energy policy act to the detriment of democratic development?
Are EU policies of democracy promotion becoming weaker in states that are either energy producers or energy transit countries? Many certainly judge that new energy security imperatives sound the death knell for democracy promotion. On the other hand, would it be preferable to pressure producer countries for improvements in governance so as to achieve a more favourable and stable investment climate in which IOC’s could operate? Is this feasible given the recent trend towards greater resource nationalism?
The earth’s finite natural resources and the environment are under tremendous pressure today. Indifferent human activities are taking their toll and governments across the globe are fast realizing the need to stem this tide, introduce corrective policies and pursue a path of sustainable development.
The Arabian Gulf region is one of the world’s most naturally endowed and economically prosperous regions. It also scores well on several social parameters. It is the world’s richest in oil and gas reserves and the poorest in renewable water and arable land and continues to rely excessively on natural resources as a development strategy. Water and oil are being tapped at unsustainable levels. Gulf countries face several urgent environmental issues that include water scarcity, land degradation, biodiversity, coastal environment degradation and air pollution.
The Gulf Region and the Arab World in general suffers from Land degradation and desertification. The proximate causes of land degradation and biodiversity loss are overgrazing, expansion of agriculture to marginal areas and rangelands to meet the increasing demand of food and fodder, and salinization due to over-abstraction of water and poor irrigation practices.
In light of the above, a training program in field related to water, land and biodiversity issue is very crucial in order to know the up-to-date management techniques as well as see in practice such techniques.
Note: The approved medium of instruction in this training program is Arabic; however, knowledge of English language would be preferable.
In recent months, the GCC countries have manifested renewed interest in actively participating in the development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. This was confirmed by the recent decision of the GCC Summit in Riyadh to launch a joint nuclear research program.
The Gulf Research Center is taking the initiative of organizing an intensive (3 days) Executive Learning Program on “Nuclear Power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries”, offering to high-ranking government personnel in key administrations in the GCC member countries the opportunity to improve their information background and understanding of nuclear issues.
The program will be held in cooperation with the Geneva Center for Security Policy, on July 4-6, 2007, in Geneva. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also confirmed its participation. Lectures will be offered by some of the leading international experts in the field.
The relationship between the member states of the European Union (EU) and those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is multifaceted and has over the years taken on a number of increasing dimensions. In light of recent security issues such as those related to terrorism and the US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, ties between the EU and the GCC have also taken on a security component that up to this stage remains largely undefined and understudied. Yet, with the emergence of the European Security Strategy in December 2003 and other initiatives such as NATO’s Istanbul Cooperation Initiative unveiled in 2004, Europe itself is trying to define more concretely what a future European security role in the Gulf region could look like and to what degree Europe can assist the Gulf States from overcoming their perennial security problem. This debate features a number of salient issues including weapons trade and proliferation, terrorism, bi-lateral as well as multi-lateral security approaches to the region and the promotion of the soft security realm as a means to move towards a more comprehensive notion of the term security itself. This conference will bring together experts and analysts from Europe, the GCC States and “interested” other countries to illuminate the problem areas that Europe faces in the Gulf and to put the different approaches on the table into their proper context. Of specific concern will be how to move from the current still vague and largely theoretical notions of GCC-EU security cooperation into more policy-applicable and relevant approaches that build on past European experiences. The papers presented at the workshop will be published in an edited volume following the workshop’s conclusion.
The Geo-Economic Positioning of the GCC countries
Until the 1980s the position of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the international division of labour was clear: oil was exported and manufactured goods were imported, mainly from Europe and the USA. Nowadays the situation has changed. Although the importance of oil and gas revenues is still paramount, the GCC countries command an increasingly diversified economic structure with new sectors emerging in the fields of petrochemicals, utilities, services and tourism. They are the world market leader in polymer production and lay specific emphasis on the development of energy intensive industries like aluminium, steel and fertilizer plants. For theses industries they have to import now raw materials themselves from countries like Australia and South Africa. On the other hand the focus of their trading relations has shifted and moves eastwards. The USA only account for roughly 10% of imports nowadays (2004) while the European Union is contributing one third and the Asian countries about a quarter of overall imports. Thus, they have become the most important trading partners for the GCC, most notably Asia, which purchases about two thirds of GCC energy exports. How could these interdependences of foreign trade be mapped out in detail? How will the GCC countries react to these challenges? How do they position themselves in the WTO process and the ongoing negotiations of free trade agreements with the EU and the USA? Which chances and which threats emerge from the opening of their economies? Which sectors and companies will benefit (e.g. petrochemicals) and which will likely face difficulties in facing increased competition (e.g. agriculture, so far monopolistic telecoms, banks)? Will petrodollar recycling move away from simple buying of US treasuries and move towards strategic investments and other currencies like the Euro? And finally: is there a realignment of foreign policy discernible along the lines of geo-economic positioning?
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) will hold a joint workshop on Pakistan-Gulf Strategic Relations on March 8-9, 2007 in Islamabad. The aim of the workshop is to assess current strategic relations and forecast future trends in terms of the political, economic and security aspects of relations between Pakistan and the GCC States. There have been critical developments in these areas which not only impact inter-regional relations but also affect the political and economic environment within these states.
Pakistan’s geo-strategic position as well as its close and long-standing relations with the GCC States are an important factor in shaping their respective policies vis-à-vis other regional neighboring countries. For example, many states in South West Asia and Central Asia are keen on extending energy and trade links and developing crucial communication networks with the GCC States. Similarly, Pakistan’s importance as a key regional player in influencing and shaping developments in Afghanistan, as well as the significance of its close relations with China and Iran that could influence the regional security environment cannot be underestimated. The fact that Pakistan enjoys close relations with the GCC states could play a mutually beneficial role in political dealings with other regional players.
The workshop will provide a platform to look at some important issues that need to be explored in depth, considering the commonalities the two sides share. Some significant topics that will be addressed include the political environment in the region which remains threatened by the growing instability in Afghanistan, the Iranian nuclear program, and the forward movement in the peace initiative on Kashmir. The workshop will also focus on security issues. Terrorism, soft security issues such as narcotics and human trafficking, and the rise of militant Islam will be among the topics discussed. Another common security concern is the flow of illegal immigrants from Pakistan to the GCC states.
Pakistan and the GCC states have already demonstrated the need for a joint effort to combat terrorism. Collaborative efforts to counter terrorism and contain the threat posed by human and narcotics trafficking are already being made by the governments of both Pakistan and the GCC states. There is a further need to develop these efforts. Besides, it is necessary to devise a grassroots-level program and develop sustained long- term policies that will address the root causes of terrorism. Such policies should also be looking at developing a comprehensive educational curriculum for schools and religious institutions that by inculcating proper Islamic teachings could serve as an effective deterrent against vested interests seeking to incite hatred and violence by the misuse and abuse of Islamic education. It is also important to look at the rise of militant Islam and review measures which need to be implemented to combat the conflagration of extremism.
Pakistan has always played an active role in training and providing military education to officers in the armed forces and civic security institutions of the GCC States. The workshop will review the existing military ties including trade in arms and defense systems. It will also look at the possibility of extending potential support of the Pakistan armed forces for regional defense in case of external threat to the GCC States. Another significant contribution Pakistan could offer to the GCC States is to provide nuclear technology for developing a peaceful nuclear program, with the approval and supervision of the IAEA.
Political stability and regional security are factors that are inextricably linked to the development of better economic relations between the GCC States and Pakistan. The recent surge in GCC investments in key sectors such as telecommunications, real estate and infrastructure development, energy, steel and shipping is an indicator of the growing confidence in the stability and future potential of the Pakistan economy.
The GRC-ISSI workshop hopes to highlight the significant themes that define the relations between Pakistan and the GCC States. This will be a useful endeavor to bring into focus the above-mentioned key themes and chalk out future development of ideas that are mutually beneficial not only to Pakistan and the GCC States but also other regional countries.
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) will be a strategic partner of the Saudi Law Training Center in organizing the Second GCC Capital Market Forum 2007 in Dubai. The conference will be held on March 3 and 4 in JW Marriot Hotel in Dubai. After the severe stock market corrections of 2006, the Forum will discuss problems and prospects of the GCC stock markets. Under the title “Managing the Crisis,” crucial topics like family businesses going public, internet trading, unification of Gulf stock markets and good governance issues will be addressed.
Building on the success of the first forum, sponsored by HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai and UAE Minister of Finance and Industry, the second GCC Capital Market Forum will be held with distinguished specialists, speakers and guests for the second consecutive year. Abdulaziz O. Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, will address in his inaugural speech the current condition of the GCC financial markets as well as the challenges they pose and the opportunities they present. A special study on the management of IPOs will be presented by two distinguished IMF experts on the Middle East, Mr. Fernando Delgado and Dr. Mohammed Omran. Dr. Eckart Woertz, Program Manager Economics at GRC, will present a study on the collapse of the GCC stock markets, the reasons behind it and the best means to deal with the situation. The Abu Dhabi Securities Market, the other strategic partner in the Second GCC Capital Market Forum, will present a paper on the effects of legislation and laws on the development and stability of securities markets.
With the US strategy being at the center of the current policy debate in the region, the Gulf research Center will host a roundtable discussion on “US Policy in the Gulf Region” with Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns, third-highest ranking official in the US State Department.
Coinciding with his visit, Ambassador Burns will deliver a key policy statement and then be available for a question and answer session.
Immediately after the policy statement and roundtable discussion, there will be a press conference in the GRC Training Room.
The last event co-sponsored by NATO and the Gulf Research Center in September 2005 in Dubai sought to explore the practical possibilities of cooperation within NATO’s Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) and to see how the relationship between NATO and the member states of the GCC can be enhanced and promoted. The findings of this meeting concluded that an expanded role for NATO in the Gulf could contribute to greater security and stability in the region, in keeping with the aims of the ICI which was launched at the Alliance"s Summit in June 2004. NATO’s aim to contribute to long-term global and regional security by offering countries of the broader Middle East region practical bilateral security cooperation is of ever-increasing importance to the Gulf countries today.
As a follow up to the initial joint meeting between NATO and the GRC in which NATO laid out the “menu” of the ICI to their potential partners in the Gulf region, this second conference will build on the initial findings. With the Institute for Diplomatic Studies of the Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia as an additional sponsor, the focus will not only be on the overall geo-strategic picture of possible future co-operation, but will particularly aim to highlight specific and practical aspects of potential NATO involvement the Gulf in the realm of soft security issues. The overall objective of the meeting is thus to kick start real and meaningful engagement between NATO and its Gulf partners.
The conference proposes to look at four key areas and discuss practical ways that NATO can offer assistance to Gulf partners. Such areas include:
• Intelligence-sharing and co-operation as part of the overall fight against terrorism
• Cooperation regarding border security in connection with terrorism, small arms and light weapons trafficking
• Joint efforts to combat illegal human and drug trafficking and developing common strategies to tackle this problematic
• Civil emergency planning, including participating in training courses and exercises on disaster assistance, civil-military coordination, and crisis response to maritime, aviation, and surface threats
Through establishing a framework for practical co-operation and dialogue on such a focused set of topics, the Gulf Research Center, the Institute for Diplomatic Studies and NATO hope to push Gulf-NATO relations further down the path towards a strategic partnership. The meeting would be introduced by an overview of the NATO policies regarding the four above-mentioned topics as well as an assessment from the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regarding the current level of threat that these issues represent. In addition, there will be a discussion on the post-Cold War transformation of NATO and the implications this also holds for the Gulf region. The workshop will conclude with a roundtable to provide policy suggestions.
Anticipated speakers and participants are representatives from NATO, GCC Foreign and Defense Ministries, members of the other various GCC defense and intelligence establishment as well as regional experts and analysts.
This meeting was opened by the GRC Chairman, Mr. Abdulaziz Sager. Mr. Sager thanked all board members for accepting to take part in the GRC Academic Board. He pointed out that the GRC has managed to successfully disseminate information about the Gulf region in a non-partisan way. Mr. Sager also stressed that the GRC is determined to continue to deliver its message and enhance its growth and networks despite obstacles and difficulties sometimes encountered in the region. He emphasized that the GRC mission is to protect the interest of the Gulf region and its peoples, and that the GRC pays special attention to the human factor.
The chairman of the GRC then outlined the progress accomplished in several fields:
In the field of education, he mentioned three ongoing programs:
- Executive Learning Programs which is designed to provide leadership development opportunities in all aspects of public policy;
- The MA Degree Distance Learning Program in International Relations with the Free University of Berlin in which the GRC is used as a platform and facilitator for in-house classes run at the GRC in Dubai; and
- The development of e-learning blue print solutions on which a workshop attended by some 50 people has already been organized.
In the media field, specific mentioning was made of Gulf in the Media Program which brings up-to-date news about the region and beyond. E-mail alerts are currently reaching some 25,000 people on a daily basis.
In the field of consultancy, the chairman noted that the GRC is receiving more offers than it can accept, although the GRC plans to increase its consultancy work. A promising consultancy project in which the GRC is currently involved is that with the German Institute for Technical Cooperation, GTZ.
As far as publications are concerned, it was pointed out that the list of GRC publications is steadily growing. One of the GRC’s flagship publications, The Gulf Year Book is currently printed in 10,000 copies – both in English and Arabic – and distributed internationally by Amazon and IB Tauris.
The GRC runs also an internship program in which about 30 local and international students and academics have participated so far.
Mr. Sager informed the participants that the GRC plans to expand internationally. The Gulf Research Center Foundation is in the process of being established in Geneva under the direction of Professor Giacomo Luciani and plans are under way for GRC offices to be opened in Singapore and Washington DC.
Dr. Christian Koch took the opportunity to point out that increasingly the focus of the GRC was to produce research in-house through its publications. Thus, for example, current publications like the Gulf Year Book, the new Gulf Monitor, GRC commentaries and analyses as well as GRC book reviews all represent outputs by the research department of the Center. Regarding specific research program, Dr. Koch pointed out to the progress made in the field of GCC-EU relations where numerous Memorandum of Understandings with partner institutions in Europe had been signed and where overall the GRC has made a contribution to the development of GCC-EU relations. In particular, the GRC has established a tradition to organize a workshop with the holder of the EU presidency and plans are underway to attract participation in such workshops of other EU members. In terms of other program related to the Gulf and its international environment, the GRC runs programs in the field of GCC-Asia relations as well as GCC/Russia/CIS relations. In both cases, edited volumes are planned for later in 2007.
Dr. Mustafa Alani spoke about the work conducted in the Security and Counter/Terrorism Research Program. He noticed that the GRC continues to be focused on its initiative to declare the Gulf region a “Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Free Zone”, on which theme the GRC has published a major work (entitled The Case for WMD Free Zone in the Gulf) both in English and Arabic. Dr. Alani stated that research is also being conducted on “soft” security issues such as human and drug trafficking in the region as well as the phenomenon of suicide bombing in countries such as Iraq, Chechnya, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. A research bulletin on security continues to be published by the GRC every three months.
Dr. N. Janardhan briefed the Academic Board on Gulf-Asia relations. He pointed out that the Gulf-Asia Relations Program was added to the GRC research programs last September upon the realization that the increasing significance of Asia as an economic ally for the Gulf countries could influence the political economy of the region and shape its international relations in the future. Dr. Janardhan stated that as part of this program, the first issue of Gulf-Asia Research Bulletin, a quarterly periodical, has just been published and plans are afoot to produce an edited volume on the political, economic, security and social dynamics of Gulf-Asia relations by specifically looking at future prospects.
Dr. Eckart Woertz presented an overview of the GCC Economies Program which deals with the economies of the GCC and the three neighboring countries, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. He noted that whilst special attention is given to the still paramount oil and gas sector, diversification attempts in trade, services and tourism are also analyzed. In addition, this Program considers prospects for energy alternatives besides nuclear energy such as coal and solar energy. Dr. Woertz informed the Academic Board that two research projects are currently being considered, namely: worldwide gas export options in the GCC; and the role of petrodollar recycling in the world economy.
Dr. Oskar Ziemelis briefed the Academic Board on the GCC Environment Program which seeks to deepen the awareness and understanding of environmental issues in the region and publish pioneering research related to the region’s environmental problems. A key research project entitled The Green Gulf Report was published in 2006 which documented the state of the environment and natural resources in the GCC countries. Dr. Ziemelis informed the Academic Board that the GRC has launched a new project Green Gulf 2020 to be worked upon over the next two years.
Following the presentations about the GRC research activities, the meeting proceeded to an open discussion forum where board members could provide their comments and suggestions. It was again emphasized by the GRC that it was important to hear the board member’s views as the GRC continues on its path to develop a comprehensive research agenda.
In the discussion session the members of the Academic Board expressed satisfaction with the progress made by the GRC to-date and reiterated the need for the GRC to continue to be a bridge between the region and the rest of the world. In brief, the members of the Academic Board offered the following suggestions to be considered by the GRC:
Research Focus:
• The GRC should think not only in Gulf terms but also along Muslim and Arabic lines.
Research Areas:
• Study of population movements in the region; migration patterns
• Focused research on unemployment and demographic issues which can draw together also social and cultural matters.
• Expatriate labor issues
• The political economy of labor market in the Gulf
• Patterns of investment of Gulf capital in the Arab countries
• Banking in the GCC
• Research on the role of cities as well as issues of governance and political participation
• Work of parliaments/elections/budgets/technical expertise of legislatures
• A comparative study on the wars in the Gulf.
Networks:
• Formation of a Conflict Resolution Group from the region whose members could come from the governments and civil society
• Establishment of a study group to work on confidence building measures in the Gulf region
• Identification of Asian institutions with an interest in Gulf issues with a view to deepening contact and collaboration.
• Stronger regional network with local institutions and universities
Training:
• Working more on training the new generation in the Gulf region
• Joint supervision involving a supervisor from the region and another from a Western University could be useful in this regard. The GRC’s qualified personnel could also be used in prospective training programs.
• Explore participation in UN Corporate Programs to expand training opportunities
Publications:
• The GRC can offer translated texts that can benefit Arab audiences. It was suggested that such text could be introduced by an author from the region to provide a sort of indigenous context to such books.
• Possibility of translation from other languages than English, particular considering the vast literature that exists in India.
• Titles of works to be translated to be circulated among board members
Some debate ensued about the division between the academic approach of the GRC as compared to the need to maintain an active policy advocate role.
Here it was mentioned that the GRC will continue to take public critical positions when necessary but that the overall output would have to comply with producing quality innovative research.
In closing, it was reiterated that one of the function of the Academic Board is to also assist in promoting the activities of the GRC in order to reach as wide an audience as possible. Board members were encouraged to keep in close contact with the GRC and to forward any comments and suggestion in between the regular board meetings.
Throughout 2006, the shortcomings of American foreign policy in the Gulf region have become blatantly apparent. Iraq has deteriorated to the point of open civil warfare, sectarian and ethnic conflict issues throughout the Middle East have been exacerbated, the determination of Iran to challenge the United States and its pursuit of a nuclear program continues without much restraint, the stability of Afghanistan hangs very much in the balance, and the threat of terrorism has not diminished to any significant degree. Slowly but surely, the Gulf region is not only faced with the possibility of further turmoil but with a complete lack of security. And of all this occurring while concerns over world energy supplies are once underscoring the region’s central strategic importance to the rest of the world. | |
The relationship between the member states of the European Union (EU) and those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is multifaceted and has over the years taken on a number of dimensions. Most importantly, ties between the two sides are increasingly being defined away from the traditional economic relationship to include a whole variety of security topics. Terrorism, the impact of the US-led invasion of Iraq and its consequences, the engagement of the EU-3 in the negotiations with Iran over that country’s nuclear program are some of the most obvious topics that play a role. Moreover, the debate over energy security has taken on a specific momentum within the member states of the European Union as the continent looks to lessen its dependence on a single source. As a result, the Gulf is being seen within a differentiated light that points towards greater opportunities of better defining the EU-GCC relationship.
The emergence of the European Security Strategy in December 2003 and other initiatives such as NATO’s Istanbul Cooperation Initiative unveiled in 2004, underlined that Europe is attempting to define what a potential European role in the Gulf region could look like and to what degree Europe can assist the Gulf States from overcoming their perennial security problem. These initial steps also emphasize however that substantive debate on specific issues is required in order to provide for a better road-map for the impending challenges ahead.
As a contribution to the debate, the Gulf Research Center and the Istituto Affari Internazionali will host a joined seminar entitled “Fostering EU-Italy-GCC Cooperation: The Political, Economic and Energy Dimensions.” This meeting will bring together experts and policy officials from Europe, the GCC States and “interested” other countries to illuminate the problem areas that Europe faces in the Gulf and to put the different approaches on the table into their proper context. Of specific concern will be how to move from the current still vague and largely theoretical notions of GCC-EU cooperation into more policy-applicable and relevant approaches that build on past European experiences.
Dr Aryeh Neier, President, Open Society Institute, New York, will deliver a lecture on “International Norms versus Local Realities: Why International Law Matters” and discuss issues related to the rule of law in areas that have relevance to the Middle East. A roundtable thereafter will address matters such as crimes of war (on which a publication was prepared a few years ago) and prisoners of war.
The Gulf Research Center's Global Leadership Program aims to improve the leadership skills and knowledge of mid-level professionals concerned with crucial global issues. This includes both the governmental and the private sector. Sensitive topics on issues such as security, economics, and politics will be deeply enmeshed in a process of interaction between leading scholars in those respective fields, as well as, senior officials from the public and private sector.
The Global Leadership Program consists of three separate modules focusing on the main and key political, security and economics topics that concerned political and economic figures need to be aware of. The program is divided so that each week could focus in-depth on one of the three main areas mentioned.
The Global Economic module covers issues such as economic policy making in a globalized world, the role of the world trade organization, energy security and future energy supply trends, institutions and the transformation of world markets, and creating the conditions for sustainable development. This includes a focus on development in the United States, the European Union and Asia as well as other important emerging markets.
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) is releasing the Arabic translation of the International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO 2006) with a high ranking roundtable about contemporary energy issues. | |
The Gulf Research Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held two meetings in 2004 and 2005 respectively focusing on the status of political reform in the GCC States. These meetings provided a broad overview of factors affecting political reform in the Gulf and an evaluation of the changes that have taken place so far in each country. The first GRC-Carnegie meeting, held in September 2004, made an important contribution to the understanding of the reform process by discussing the broad issues that affect political transformation in the area. The second meeting in November 2005 drew comparative lessons among the experiences of the GCC countries, as well as put forward ideas to reinforce the political reform process by strengthening civil society organizations even at a time of high oil prices, which cushions delaying reforms.
As political reform has become an integral part of the overall development process being implemented in the Gulf region, the GRC and the Carnegie Endowment have decided to continue their cooperation and conduct a third meeting on this topic. In order to make the third meeting as productive as the previous ones, the focus this time will be more specifically on the internal and external drivers of change and how each of these are influencing the current and future political reform process in the GCC States.
The November 2005 meeting called for the development of a quantifiable ‘democratic continuum’, where reform would not just be measured just in terms of elections but would also take into account policies dealing with constitutional development, women’s rights, freedom of the press, corruption, administrative transparency, human rights, and education reforms. In this context, the 2006 workshop would look in-depth at the domestic factors that can move the region into such direction. Specific focus will be given to the actors in the region such as political societies, civil society organizations, religious groups and a new middle class. It will equally be important to look at new emerging institutions such as parliaments, municipal councils to see the kind of impact they can generate.
In terms of economic transformation and the emergence of business and middle classes, the role of chambers of commerce needs to be looked at. During elections to the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce in December 2005 for example, two women were elected, a historic first for the Saudi kingdom. What are the implications, if any? The emergence of tactical alliances between new middle class members and the ruling elite implies questions about how this "partnership" functions. In the meanwhile, the ruling elites are struggling to initiate reforms dealing with youth unemployment and the socio-economic problems. What are the main obstacles that hinder a successful implementation of economic reforms? Finally from the domestic point of view, it will be relevant to look more closely at the ideas and debates that are contributing or hampering impending reform.
Looking at the external environment, the participants from the region in the November 2005 meeting stated that, while the September 11 events were a factor that has brought the issue of political reforms to the fore, it is certainly not the only catalyst for change. In some respects, US policies had in fact proved to be more of a “stumbling block.” A consensus opinion was that reforms will take place in the region “despite the US and not because of the US.”
Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that external factors do play a role whether positively or negatively. The workshop will thus take a multifaceted approach looking at how reforms taking place elsewhere in the Arab world are having an impact on political reform in the GCC countries, while also discussing the impact of direct external efforts to influence political reform in the Middle East on the GCC States. Specific emphasis is to be given to the perception in Washington and European capitals and the perception in the region and to a comparative analysis that looks at whether efforts have positive or mostly counterproductive effects and how such efforts can be improved upon.
The workshop has been designed so that each panel starts with two initial presentations, one by an analyst from a GCC country and one by an American or European analyst. This will make it possible to compare the different perspectives on what drives political reform in the area. It is also hoped that this will lead to ideas and/or suggestions about how the overall political reform process in the GCC countries can be reinforced and strengthened.
Objectives of the Workshop
• Focus on the Internal and External Drivers for Political Reform in the GCC States
• Look at how domestic factors have influenced and are likely to influence in the future, either positively or negatively, the political reform process in GCC countries
• Look at how external factors have influenced and are likely to influence in the future, either positively or negatively, the political reform process in GCC countries
• Provide a comparative perspective on the perception in the region, in Washington and in European capitals on the impact of various factors on political reform.
• Identifying common denominators shared by all drivers that can promote a reform process in the region and propose implementable policy alternatives.
• Understand the mechanisms of reform between new emerging actors and ruling elite.
• Provide an in-sight on economic networks financing ruling elites and civil societies.
With globalization on the rise and a multitude of international issues such as migration, new security challenges and environmental degradation at hand, an exponentially growing demand exists for IR related expertise as well as transnational understanding and cooperation. Responding to these imperative needs, the Free University of Berlin (FU) - in cooperation with the Gulf Research Center (GRC) – are offering a Masters of Arts (M.A.) degree program in International Relations (IR) beginning in November of 2006.
The International Relations M.A. is a program of excellence aspires to bring together young professionals from the GCC countries and beyond in order to enhance their career perspectives in IR related fields and to further qualify individuals to work in governmental agencies, private enterprises, international organizations and NGOs. It is a two-year full-time Master of Arts program, comprising 120 credit points according to ECTS standards. The degree is certified by the Free University of Berlin is conjunction with all relevant German academic standards and regulations.
The course consists of different modules divided into the four sections of introduction and international relations theory, the core curriculum, mandatory issues and practical training. The initial courses allow from an introduction into the tools to be used throughout as well as a through understanding of existing and relevant IR theories. The core curriculum involves issues such as globalization, European politics, international law, international political economy and international security. In the third part, specific issues will be focused on including megacities as new sites of governance, the problematic of migration, citizenship and identity and the overall subject of culture and IR. Finally, the modules involve various aspects of practical training and involves intercultural communication, conflict management and simulation exercises.
To assist the students in their work, the program is based on state-of-the-art communication technology with web-based study modules integrating multimedia and providing an exciting, challenging learning experience. The learning management system “Blackboard” gives easy access to a virtual library and web-based data, including relevant course material and multimedia files designed to support the studies. Self-study and interactive elements online are combined with eight weeks of in-house classes in Dubai and Berlin. In addition to attending face-to-face classes with fellow students and tutors, students will join roundtables and networking dinners with IR experts and relevant economic actors to discuss highly controversial up-to-date IR topics.
This symposium will present and discuss the various issues and developments concerning the current reality and the future of relations between Yemen and the GCC countries with special focus on the strategic, security political and economic prerequisites for the incorporation of Yemen into the GCC. Also it will discuss the importance of economic adaptation of Yemen, its mechanisms and requirements, the potential gains and mutual interests of both Yemen and the GCC states at the political, economic, and security levels.
A primary focus of the Gulf Research Center is to conduct a variety of high level learning programs with practical policy value. Following the successful establishment of its Executive Learning Program, the Gulf Research Center is organizing a series on “Global Leadership Issues.” The central aim of the course is to improve the leadership skills and knowledge of mid-level professionals concerned with crucial global issues. This includes both the governmental and the private sector. Sensitive topics on issues such as security, economics, and politics will be deeply enmeshed in a process of interaction between leading scholars in those respective fields, as well as, senior officials from the public and private sector.
The upcoming workshop will be the third in a series of meetings organized by the GRC as part of its Research project to promote declaring the Gulf region a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (GWMDFZ). The Research Program was created following a workshop hosted by the GRC here in Dubai on December 11-12, 2004 which launched the initiative. High level representatives from countries in the region, as well as international experts and academics, along with representatives from a number of regional and international organizations took part in a two day -closed workshop discussion on the highly critical issue of WMD proliferation in the region and the ramifications of these developments on countries in the Gulf as well as the international community.
The initiative was very well received in the region following two successful meetings in Dubai and Stockholm. The second meeting was in fact co-sponsored by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as part of their mission to conduct research on questions of conflict and co-operation for international peace and security and with the endorsement of the European Union. The gaining importance of the Gulf as a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone project in the region was exemplified in the endorsement of the idea by GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah at the opening of the GCC Summit in Abu Dhabi in December 2005.
This upcoming workshop is being carried out with the support of VERTIC, an independent, non-governmental organization. Its mission is to promote effective and efficient verification as a means of ensuring confidence in the implementation of international agreements and intra-national agreements with international involvement. VERTIC’s contribution to this meeting is funded by the Global Opportunities Fund of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO.)
At this meeting, we are hoping that through the high level official representation from all the nine Gulf States we will be able to push the process from a Track II diplomatic path to a Track I official level. It is our hope that like other disarmament processes before, we can encourage regional governments to adopt this idea officially for our mutual security.
Purposes of workshop
1. to provide an opportunity for representatives of the nine states in the greater Gulf region to exchange views on establishing a regional ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ)’ in support of the Gulf Research Center’s project to promote a Gulf WMDFZ;
2. to provide an opportunity for representatives to learn about national nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons law, as well as UN Security Council Resolution 1540 (UNSCR 1540), in support of VERTIC’s project on national implementation measures (NIM) for international treaties, agreements and norms; and
3. to provide the GRC and VERTIC with an opportunity to learn more about the positions and concerns of the participating countries regarding non-proliferation of WMD in the Gulf region, including helping to identify any areas in which technical and/or legal assistance would be useful in implementing appropriate national measures.
The workshop supports VERTIC’s project, ‘Building capacity to implement nuclear and biological weapons treaties, norms and UN Security Council Resolutions’. This project focuses on national implementation measures (NIM), and has been developed to address the difficulties that many states, especially developing countries, face in understanding what measures are required at the national level to comply with the prohibitions in a wide range of nuclear and biological treaties, norms and UN Security Council resolutions (UNSCR), and how to implement them. While there are bilateral, multilateral and inter-governmental programs which offer some implementation assistance, depending on the agreement, there are still substantial gaps to be filled. Under this project, VERTIC is developing a guide to national implementation requirements under the agreements mentioned above, model national laws and/or legislative provisions, and a list of useful resources to help states find further assistance, and holding a series of seminars and regional workshops to raise awareness of implementation obligations and approaches.
Trading relations between Asia and the GCC have been developing by leaps and bounds in the recent years. While the GCC is the most important energy supplier to Asia, the latter, in turn, exports machinery, cars and engineering goods to the Gulf countries. The GCC countries are also developing closer ties with Asia in security and cultural matters. South Korea is one of the most developed and most important countries in Asia and already entertains close trading relations with GCC.
The joint workshop between the Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) deals with the status quo of the trading relations between Korea and the GCC countries and their future challenges. Specific attention will be paid to the energy sector, most notably Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Other areas of discussion will include financial cooperation and foreign direct investment.
This follows the directions initiated by the GRC’s 2006 Annual conference titled “Dynamic Alliances: Strengthening Ties between the GCC and Asia” which addressed the GCC’s growing bilateral trade and investment relations with Asia along with the correlated political and security implications in January 2006.
It has been shown that in nearly every area of human achievements, from business, to the arts, to science, to sports and in the political arena there are teams of people that produce outstanding and innovative results by getting more than the full-value of the talent potential of the assembled individuals. Such work groups are referred to as Virtuoso Teams. Virtuoso Teams consist of star performers, at every level and are a powerful way to generate major change such as: creating radical new strategies, entering new markets, or the re-generation of a company. As such, they are unlike traditional teams which are typically made up of whoever is available. Leaders of Virtuoso Teams, meanwhile, put a premium on great collaboration and they are not afraid to encourage creative confrontations to get it.
The IMD Business Forum held in collaboration with the Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) will focus specifically on the role of virtuoso teams. The event will be led by Professor Bill Fischer, Professor of Technology Management at IMD International, who will share the outcome of his published research focused on how to systematically exploit the power of the Virtuoso Team method. The speakers and the discussion at this Forum will offer various insights from their experiences of how high performance teams are critical to achieving outstanding results
Dr. Omar Bin Sulaiman, Director General of Dubai International Financial Centre Authority (DIFCA) will make the opening address on the "Impact of Virtuoso Teams in Ultra Rapid Growth: The Dubai Story".
Speakers:
More speakers from the international and regional business communities will share with us their views on this topic.
Given the current regional climate, the Gulf Research Center feels it necessary to provide a closer in-depth look into the political and security implications of events in the Gulf region as well as the associated economic repercussions of recent developments. As such, the meeting includes the following brief keynote presentations:
• On Security by Dr. Mustafa Alani, Senior Advisor and Director of Security and Terrorism Studies at the GRC,
• On Regional Politics presented by Dr. Christian Koch, Program Director
of GCC-EU Relations, GRC; and
• On Regional Economics by Professor Giacomo Luciani, Professor of Political Economy at the European University Institute, Florence, Italy and a member of the GRC Editorial Board.
The presentations will be followed by an open roundtable discussion forum in which questions can be raised and other issues of concern can be elaborated upon.
The main aim of this workshop is to start a dialogue within the UAE financial and business media about current trends and topics, with the GRC acting as a mediator for the sessions. The economic workshop follows in the wake of GRC’s release of “GCC Stock Markets At Risk,” a study by Dr. Eckart Woertz, the new GRC program manager for economics. Aside from specific stock market topics like valuations, sectors, and cross-comparisons with other emerging markets, broader economic issues will be dealt with, including oil price developments and the ailing bond market in the GCC.
Moderator:
The moderator for the workshop will be Dr. Eckart Woertz, program manager for economics at the Gulf Research Center. Dr. Woertz has extensive experience in equity and fixed income trading for German banks. His specialities are the gold and commodity markets.
Seeking solutions to the environmental issues that are on the horizon is a top priority today. Environmentalists across the globe are urging governments, authorities and the public at large to change their attitudes, approaches and actions towards the earth’s finite natural resources and the environment.
The driving force behind change in any sphere has to embrace every single section of society in order to influence thinking and action. It is, therefore, extremely essential that the youth of today understand, assimilate and demand answers to crucial environmental issues, which have affected their past and present and will drastically impact their future as well.
It is true that governments need to prepare and implement sound policies, laws and measures to protect our deteriorating environment and natural resources. But these need to be accompanied and sustained by wide-ranging awareness programs that educate and persuade the public, especially the children and youth, to be active participants in this process of change and shoulder equal responsibilities towards achieving a cleaner and greener planet.
This Youth Conference on Environment intends to promote environmental awareness and motivate young minds in the Gulf region to start looking around them, become aware of the damage to their environment and natural resources, realize the intensity and urgency of the situation, probe deeply into the existing threats and causes and suggest innovative and immediate solutions to stem the tide of destruction.
The conference will witness presentations from 10 student speakers – who have been chosen by an international panel of experts based on the abstracts received from university students in the UAE that have been judged on the basis of originality, the seriousness of the identified issue, the quality of the writing, the depth of research and the innovativeness of the proposed solutions.
In order to encourage these eager and committed students, the top three presentations will receive commemorative plaques and all 10 papers will be published.
This conference is part of the GRC’s vision for a Green Gulf and a greener planet. Realizing the importance of environment conservation and sustainable development, the GRC has widened the scope of its activities to include environmental research and awareness activities to facilitate solutions to the problems faced by the region and the world due to the degradation of the environment and depletion of precious natural resources.
One major initiative of the GRC in this field has been the “Green Gulf” project, which is a scientific attempt to address some of the most critical problems facing the region in the form of unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. Being carried out in cooperation with TERI, the Green Gulf study focuses on the natural resources of the region and the state of the environment, both critical for the future of the Gulf and the world.
Other proposed activities include creating a Web-based education module for instilling awareness about environmental issues; preparing supplementary Arabic reading material and conducting Arabic quiz programs; building a Web-based environmental database for the GCC countries, which will provide a storehouse of information on environmental and related issues; and an annual regional report on the environment.
The GRC’s 2006 Annual conference “Dynamic Alliances: Strengthening Ties between the GCC and Asia” will address the GCC’s growing bilateral trade and investment relations with Asia along with the correlated political and security implications. Asia’s growing role in the global economy and energy markets in the coming decade will likely influence the long-term political economy of the GCC. Asia"s oil consumption of 23 million barrels per day is already responsible more than 30 percent of the world’s oil production. This trend that is forecast to continue with growth expected to rise nearly 50 percent by 2010 and more than double by 2020. Currently, two-thirds of GCC oil exports go eastwards to Asia. Cooperation and greater linkages between the two regional blocs in the oil sector is thus a key element to ensuring both security of supply for Asian consumers and of demand for GCC oil producers. The rise in demand by Asian countries such as China, Japan, India and South Korea for secure energy sources is likely to shape international relations in the coming decades.
Economic integration between the GCC and Asian countries has increased substantially over the last decade. Asia is now undoubtedly the GCC’s most important trading partner. At 54.4 percent, GCC exports to Asia currently constitute more than half their total exports and imports from Asia account for more than a third of the GCC total, with 32.3 percent. In particular, there has been tremendous growth in bilateral trade levels between the GCC and China and India, forming a large proportion of the aggregate figures. China is now the GCC’s second largest trade partner after the USA.
As a result of the increasing economic ties between the Asian countries and the GCC, political and security dynamics are also taking a more central role. There can be no doubt as far as Asia is concerned that the emerging international relations picture will have an impact on the nature and direction of GCC-Asia economic and business ties. This includes regional interactions among the major Asian powers, the role played by the US in facilitating or complicating cooperative relationships and the involvement of international organizations as they try to balance the numerous competing forces and trends. Thus, while the economy may be the initial focus of Asian developments in the coming years, the political and security aspects will also become areas of great concern.
The GRC annual conference aims at providing a guideline to future scenarios regarding Asia, especially the GCC-Asia relationship. Through the involvement and participation of a number of high-level government officials, intellectuals and business executives from both the Gulf region and Asia, the workshop will focus on the following objectives:
Objectives of the Workshop
• To critically analyze the rising demand for energy from Asian countries and its political ramifications for the Gulf region.
• To analyze the impact of Asian conflicts (Indo-Pakistan, China-Taiwan) in terms of the implications for the GCC-Asia relationship.
• To examine the future of US-China relations and its effects on regional and global security.
• To deliberate potential areas of security cooperation among the GCC and Asia in order to combat the threat of terrorism.
• To discuss the growing economic role for Asia in the oil and non-oil sectors of the GCC as well as the formalization of trade/investment agreements between the two blocs.
The Gulf Research Center (GRC) will hold its third annual conference on January 4, 2006. Entitled “Gulf Yearbook 2005-2006,” the conference will see the release and presentation of the GRC"s annual yearbook entitled “Gulf Yearbook 2005.” This publication highlights the key developments of the year, focusing on the major political, economic, security, and social trends. Following the keynote address by H.E. Ong Keng Yong, the Secretary-General of ASEAN, select contributors to the Yearbook will present their findings.
The Yearbook will be divided into four parts, each of which will explore a theme relevant to the current situation in the Gulf. The first section will deal with political and social developments in the Gulf, and will cover municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, external factors and their impact on political reform in the Gulf, education curricula, the role of civil society and of NGOs as well as women and youth. The second section will deal with economic developments and will include articles on real estate, the GCC stock markets, oil production and energy, labor markets, and economic reform and growth prospects. The third section will focus on the international relations of the Gulf and will include analysis on developments in Iraq, Iran, Yemen as well as on the new Gulf focus on Asia and the US role in the Gulf. The fourth section will deal with defense and security issues and will include essays on terrorism and counterterrorism in the Gulf countries, NATO and the role of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, the future direction of US policy in the Gulf, as well as options for a Gulf regional security structure. The Yearbook will also include the latest statistical tables and other data in various relevant fields.
Environmental awareness is slowly but surely growing in the Gulf, the proof of which lies in some of the measures instituted and implemented by the governments in the region.
In line with its vision for a Green Gulf and a greener planet and realizing the importance of environment conservation and sustainable development, the GRC has widened the scope of its activities to include environmental research and awareness activities to facilitate solutions to the problems faced by the region and the world due to the degradation of precious natural resources.
Given several constraints in assessing the damage to the environment due to the non-availability of or inconsistent data, which hinders devising and implementing solutions, a beginning toward addressing this issue has been initiated by the GRC, in cooperation with New Delhi-based The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). Called the “Green Gulf” project, the GRC–TERI partnership is a scientific attempt to address some of the most critical problems facing the region in the form of unsustainable patterns of productions and consumption.
The Green Gulf study focuses on the natural resources of the region and the state of the environment, both critical for the future of the Gulf and the world. The questions that we will seek to answer are:
1. What are the major trends in the state of the environment and natural resources in the last few years?
2. What have been the major causes of these trends, including socio-economic factors?
3. What have been the major initiatives to address some of the identified concerns?
4. What are the obstacles to reform and the strategies required to overcome these?
Further, the GRC also intends to target and mold young minds with green thinking through their academic curriculum and information dissemination, as youth are the catalysts for change. The program includes devising a Web-based education module for inculcating and creating awareness about environmental issues, preparing supplementary Arabic reading material and conducting Arabic quiz programs for sensitizing the students.
Other proposed activities include building a Web-based environmental database for the GCC countries, which will provide a storehouse of information on environmental and related issues; an annual youth conference that will focus on leading environmental threats and an annual regional report on the environment.
The fieldwork for the Green Gulf study is now complete after researchers visited each of the GCC countries to collect data and seek expert advice. A draft of the report will be sent to a specially constituted Advisory Board for comments. On 21 December, detailed presentations will be made to the Advisors on the findings, followed by discussions at the day-long workshop.
The resultant recommendations will then be incorporated into the study, which we hope to make as comprehensive and informative as possible. The preliminary report will be released in February 2006 to coincide with the Special Session of Governing Council of the United Nations Environment Programme to be held in Dubai.
The main aim of this workshop is to start energy dialogues within the UAE energy and business media with GRC working as a mediator for the sessions. The oil workshop follows in the wake of GRC’s successful Arabic translation and consequent book release of the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO 2005), in the presence of US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman on November 13, Dubai.
Background
Realizing the vital need for information about the global energy markets and the related forecasts, especially to groups such as decision-makers, policy experts, academic analysts, researchers, the business community and media, the GRC established a dedicated research program known as the Gulf Energy Program in March 2005.
The main objective of this program is to promote research in the fields of energy economics and policies, taking into consideration the vested interests of both the producers and consumers. The program will explore the best possible means for the protection of the environment and recommends sound policies for the conservation of vital resources. Translating the IEO 2005 into Arabic is part of GRC’s first step into energy research.
Workshop Moderator
Dr A.F. Alhajji - Gulf Energy Program Moderator at Gulf Research Center and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics College of Business Administration, Ohio Northern University
Who will participate
UAE energy and business editors, journalists and broadcast media.
Workshop Co-ordinators
Sona Nambiar, Business Editor, Gulf Research Center – for English Media/energy sector
Maitham Al Anbari, Editor-in-charge (Arabic), Gulf Research Center – for Arabic media
The seminar would have the following objectives:
- Bring together a group of qualified participants from Europe and the Gulf (and a few from the United States) with the aim of discussing topics of mutual significance and exchanging opinions and ideas with participants from other regions;
- Discuss, first of all, EU foreign and security policies towards the Middle East as well as European Union-Gulf developmental, political and security relations;
- Discuss the impact of U.S. and NATO policies on EU-Gulf relations.
Despite their long-term commercial and economic agreements, EU relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council-GCC countries are relatively undeveloped and not proportional to the two areas’ importance in the world. True, some European nations, such as the United Kingdom, Germany and France have significant bilateral relations with GCC countries. But Europe as a whole and the European Union in particular, while fully involved in the Mediterranean region through its multidimensional Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, has only minimal relations with the Gulf. On the other hand, the European Security Strategy endorsed by the EU Council at the end of 2003 points to the need of the EU to be present and able to intervene to prevent and manage crises even in areas beyond the Mediterranean.
While EU and European policies towards the Gulf remains economically and politically undeveloped, the new U.S. engagement in the Middle East and NATO’s Istanbul Declaration of June 2004 are raising questions about their engagement there that they can no longer avoid.
On the one hand, the EU has to respond to its own challenges in the Gulf. On the other hand, it has to respond to challenges stemming from the new American and transatlantic initiatives towards the region. While traditional EU policies towards the Gulf remains weak and uneven, the EU is also very hesitant to upgrade its security involvement in the area in the framework of the expansion of NATO policies towards the south. Today, the EU looks divided between those who would like to enlarge EU Mediterranean engagement towards the Gulf and those who would prefer to reinforce the Mediterranean policy and keep aloof of such a distant and complex area as the Gulf. Such a hesitant posture with regard to security policies may have a negative impact on the overdue upgrading of economic and trade relations.
Italy is actively participating in this process, as both a NATO and an EU member state. Thus, the Italian International Affairs Institute (IAI) is interested in promoting an international seminar to bring together a group of distinguished European, GCC and US opinion leaders, officials and analysts to provide an opportunity to debate issues of common interest as well as to contribute to public policy decision-making in their respective countries.
The meeting would take place in Rome, Italy, in Fall 2005, at a date to be established later. The seminar will be co-sponsored by the IAI and institutions from the GCC countries to be identified as soon as possible. It would last no more than a day and a half. Sessions would be introduced by written papers.
The items to be discussed would be as follows:
1. EU-Gulf political and economic relations; assessment and policy recommendations
2. Regional security cooperation in the Gulf; how it should be organised; how Europe and the EU can contribute and cooperate
3. Political reform and stability in the Gulf region
4. EU-Gulf relations in a Transatlantic perspective
The results of the seminar will be disseminated through an ad hoc publication, as well as through the websites of the organisers.
The Gulf Energy Program at the Gulf Research Center (GRC) hosted a half-day energy workshop for journalists on November 23 at GRC, Dubai. The workshop titled “Oil Prices – Past, Present and Future“ aimed to bring together the UAE media to get a better understanding of energy trends and the factors that impact energy markets, both internationally and in this region.
The main aim of this workshop was to start energy dialogues within the UAE energy and business media with GRC working as a mediator for the sessions. The oil workshop follows in the wake of GRC’s successful Arabic translation and consequent book release of the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO 2005), in the presence of US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman on November 13, Dubai.
Dr A.F. Alhajji, George Patton Chair of Business and Economics College of Business Administration, Ohio Northern University and Gulf Energy Program Moderator at Gulf Research Center was the program moderator for the workshop, which was attended by English and Arabic editors and journalists from the energy and business press.
Research centers as well as those involved in political and strategic studies play a critical role in enriching academic research in their respective fields. By contributing to the formation of research cadres specialized in these fields and raising and discussing new concepts and theories as well as various relevant issues, they facilitate the formation of academic groups, thereby deepening the theoretical and cognitive frameworks of these sciences. Moreover, they assume a role in issuing journals, serial academic publications, and specialized books together with convening conferences, symposia and seminars.
Similarly, such centers conduct the study and analysis of issues and problems facing countries and societies for the sake of pinpointing the underlying causes of existing problems; by elaborating visions and feasible suggestions, they aim to rectify any shortcomings in this regard. To this end, research centers capitalize on academic research to serve social issues by offering consultancy and working out substitutes in a manner that would ameliorate the decision- and policy-making processes.
In light of the above, the status of strategic and political research centers reflect in some aspects the dominant conditions of academic research in such fields in any given country, just as they embody governmental and societal views on the importance and role of such centers. Even though the Arab world has quite a good number of government- and private-sponsored centers of this nature, the majority are regarded as having limited influence and effectiveness due to a number of considerations and reasons.
Out of its staunch conviction of the importance of the role research centers could assume, particularly in view of the current problems and sweeping challenges confronting the Arab World, the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the Arab Association for Political Science have decided to hold a joint symposium entitled ‘The Role of Centers for Research, Political and Strategic Studies in the Arab World: Challenges and Prospects.’ The objective of the symposium will be to discuss this crucial topic, pose and address a number of diverse and relevant issues and identify academic experts available at various centers for research and studies in this regard.
Both the GRC and the Arab Association for Political Science aspire to ensure that this symposium induces an increased role for political and strategic research centers across the Arab world and facilitates cooperation and coordination among the various institutions in a way that would enhance future communication and interaction. It is hoped that such endeavors will help enrich academic research efforts in the field of political science.
Objectives of the Symposium:
• Discussing the dimensions of the role played by centers for research,
political and strategic studies in the Arab world.
• Raising and addressing the different problems and obstacles that affect the
work of such centers.
• Discussing the dimensions of the linkage between such research centers
and both the state and society.
• Positing feasible suggestions likely to contribute to ameliorating the role of
such centers.
• Designing and elaborating visions and contributing suggestions likely to help
boost and deepen relations of cooperation and coordination among
research centers throughout the Arab world.
Participants in the Symposium:
• Directors of research centers for political and strategic studies, both
government-owned and private, based across the various Arab countries.
• Scholars and specialized experts.
• Representatives of academic ministries for scientific research and other
concerned official authorities from the various Arab countries.
The Arab Gulf States have been undergoing a deep process of transformation for several decades: their population has increased sharply; levels of education have risen dramatically; their economies have been integrated in the new global system and the political consciousness of their citizens has been altered by the IT revolution and the unprecedented exposure to information it entails.
The process started well before the Iraq war of 2003. To be sure, the conflict was a wake-up call for much of the region, not only because it confirmed the need for broad-based social and political change, but also because it raised significant doubts about the so-called US “forward strategy of freedom” and the reasons behind it. Both domestic pressure and external events have led many regimes to take additional steps towards creating a more participatory political order. Furthermore, citizens in all countries in the region are actively discussing the necessity for political reforms and have set forth demands for new measures.
Because of the rapid pace of change in the region, the Gulf Research Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will convene a new joint meeting in November 2005 to discuss recent developments that have taken place in a number of countries and to analyze their significance in the overall process of political reform in the Gulf region. The first GRC-Carnegie meeting, held in September 2004, made an important contribution to the understanding of the reform process by discussing the broad issues that affect political transformation in the area. The second workshop will look more closely at specific countries; it will focus primarily on the domestic process of political change: what is driving the reform process, how far it has progressed in different countries and how the transformation is likely to unfold in the short and medium term. To a lesser extent, the workshop will also consider the impact of external factors: the Iraq crisis; the shift, if any, within the US democracy agenda under a second-term Bush Administration and possible roles to be played by other external actors such as the European Union and the UN.
The workshop has been designed to incorporate the presentation and discussion of brief working papers covering the experience of political reform in each one of the six GCC States. Each paper will put forth a general evaluation of the conditions and status of the process of political reform in the concerned country and bring up major issues and questions linked to reform. Papers will also discuss key opportunities for and the most prominent obstacles to political reform.
The workshop will provide an opportunity to draw comparative lessons among the experiences of the GCC States as well as put forward ideas or feasible suggestions regarding the means and requirements for the reinforcement of political reform process and strengthening of civil society organizations (CSOs) in the GCC countries.
Objectives of the Workshop:
• Placing the reform movement in an overall comparative perspective
• Examining the salient domestic factors driving political reform in the GCC States.
• Tracing and analyzing the various political and social forces demanding political reform in the GCC countries in terms of their respective orientations, visions and their power of influence.
• Discussing the major issues and obstacles related to political reform in the GCC countries.
• Formulating comparisons among the reform experiences in the six GCC countries with the objective of identifying and elaborating upon common denominators shared by the six GCC States along with the nuances of specific cases.
Articulating feasible suggestions to support the process of political reform in the GCC States.
Realizing the importance of energy production, consumption, and trade in the Gulf and the significant role of the policies that govern them, the Gulf Research Center established the Gulf Energy Program (GEP) in March, 2005.
In recognition of the necessity of disseminating information on the international energy markets to the Arab world and the importance of cooperation between oil-producing and oil consuming countries in data and information exchange, the Gulf Research Center (GRC), with the assistance of the Energy Information Administration (EIA), at the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), will release the Arabic version of the US Energy Information Administration"s (EIA) flagship publication, the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) on November 13, 2005.
By translating the International Energy Outlook into Arabic for the first time in this region, GRC aims to make an important contribution to the understanding of the world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions to the Arab world.
The key speakers at this book release are the Honourable Samuel Bodman, US Secretary of Energy, the Honourable Guy F. Caruso, Administrator, EIA, Mr. Aloulou Fawzi, an energy economist at the International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) at EIA and also Dr A. F. Alhajji, George Patton Chair of Business and Economics, College of Business Administration, Ohio Northern University and Gulf Energy Program Moderator at GRC.
The IEO 2005 covers international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the EIA, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. It also aims at helping energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector, by providing them state-of-the-art projections and the most recent available data. Journalists and media outlets can get a better understanding of energy trends and the factors that impact energy markets.
Through the Arabic version of the IEO 2005, the Arab world can also gain access to information on regional projections of end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors and the projections for world electricity markets.
GCC-Iran relations are close in numerous areas and have continued to develop over recent years. At the same time, relations have known periods of ebb and flow due to domestic developments in Iran, on the one hand, and the transformations occurring on the regional scene as well as changing international influences on the Gulf region, on the other. As a result, progress in one area is no guarantee for a more stable and mutually beneficial relationship overall. Specifically, on the security front, there are still numerous deficits that need to be tackled and overcome.
For the moment, the positive developments in GCC-Iran relations are balanced out by the deteriorating conditions in Iraq in the post-invasion and post-occupation (March-April 2003) period and the continued tensions and animosity between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear file and a number of other problematic issues. Domestic developments in Iran, too, raise many questions and issues related to the GCC-Iran interactions. The legislative elections held in Iran in 2004 revealed that the conservative wing of the regime has managed to reinforce its clout while the role of reformist-minded politicians lost much of its vigor. This particular development carries key significance for Iran’s internal political map, just as it might impact Iran’s policy choices, both regionally and internationally.
As Iran’s ninth presidential elections are due in June 2005, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in association with the University of Durham (UK) will hold a joint workshop entitled ‘Current Conditions & Future Prospects of GCC - Iran Relations in the wake of Iran"s Presidential Elections’. The driving objective of the workshop will be to debate and analyze the current and likely impact arising from the outcome of the elections on the various issues framing the relations among the GCC States and Iran.
In a bid to enrich the dialogue and offering a platform for constructive discussions, each session of the workshop will host two speakers, one from Iran and another from one of the six GCC States. Both speakers will present a brief overview of their positions and visions regarding the specific issue under discussion.
The workshop will take place on September 28 & 29, 2005 at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The new Iranian president will have by that time formed the new government and the major trends and policies of the elected government will have become more clearly palpable.
Objectives of the workshop
• Discuss the reality of the transformations unfolding through Iran’s domestic
political map, particularly in relation to the balance of power between the
reformists and conservatives.
• Debate and analyzing the nature and limits of the role of the Iranian
president in shaping the decision-making process both at the domestic and
foreign policy-making levels in light of Iran’s complicated political regime.
• Trace and analyze the visions and positions of the elected president
towards the issues of security and stability in the Gulf region and the GCC-
Iran relations
• Debate and discern the current conditions and future developments framing
the GCC-Iran relations in the security, political and economic domains.
Participants will also identify the major factors and determinants likely to
shape and impact relations between the two sides.
• Explore the visions and policy choices of both the GCC States and Iran
during the term of the new president in relation to key regional and
international issues, notably the Iraqi dossier as well as the outlook for US-
Iran relations.
• Discussing the ways and means likely to contribute to formulating a set of
collective GCC policies towards Iran.
• Putting forth ideas and suggestions regarding the requirements and
mechanisms that could boost the GCC-Iran relations.
Participants
The GRC and the University of Durham will invite a select group of participants that will include:
• Specialized scholars and experts from Iran and the six GCC countries.
• A number of Arab and non-Arab scholars specialized in Gulf affairs.
• A number of foreign ministry officials from Iran and the GCC countries as well as delegates from the Secretariat-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
WELCOME REMARKS
Abdulaziz O. Sager
Chairman
Gulf Research Center
In the Name of Allah the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
Your Excellencies,
Distinguished Guest,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is my great pleasure to welcome you here and express my deep appreciation for your participation in this important workshop, which is organized by the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in collaboration with the very reputable University of Durham.
The workshop will discuss a vital topic concerning the Current Conditions & Future Prospects of GCC -Iran Relations in the wake of Iran"s Presidential Elections, and their implications for the region and beyond.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Needless to say, that the relations between the GCC States and Iran are quite important for the two sides because of certain geographic, cultural, political, economic and security considerations. These relations witnessed periods of noticeable Fluctuations, since the 1970s. They were constantly affected by various regional and international developments, in addition to some domestic events within both sides, especially in Iran.
It is against this backdrop that the GRC and the University of Durham took the initiative of holding this seminar. A group of distinguished scholars, experts and senior officials from the GCC States and Iran have been invited to discuss the prospects for these relations in an objective, frank and transparent context. The aim of this gathering is to determine the factors governing the future of these relations and analyze the major challenges that have adversely affected them.
The seminar will provide an ideal forum for advancing some valuable insights to tackle these obstacles, and recommend possible ways and means that could help remove any real or potential fears, and enhance these relations in the future. The ultimate goal is to provide the tenets for sustainable security and stability in a region that has, hitherto, seen more than its fair share of raging wars and destructive conflicts.
Dear guests,
As you may well know, the relations between the GCC States and Iran have multifaceted aspects in terms of their political, economic and security dimensions. It is quite important that we seek to analyze their relations in light of some important developments; chief among them was the recent presidential elections in Iran, viewed by many analysts as a turning point in Iranian policy at both the domestic and external levels.
We cannot afford to overlook the future trends of bilateral relations between the GCC States and Iran, nor can we ignore the major regional and international developments that shaped the complex nature of relations between Washington and Tehran, the ramifications of the tug of war that accompanied the Iranian nuclear program, the implications of the situation in Iraq and other issues of concern.
In addition, other vital issues such as turbulent oil markets, the necessary requirements for enhancing political and security stability in the region as well as other issues are vital aspects of relations between Iran and the GCC states.
Distinguished Guests
The Gulf Research Center is keen on discerning and analyzing developments in Iran, the region and beyond, not out of some passing necessity or transient need, but, rather, because of a genuine convictions on its part of the importance of Iran as a major player in the Gulf Region. We cannot speak about stability in this region without considering Iran.
It is on the basis of this keen interest that the GRC is issuing a series entitled: "Iranian Studies", and dedicated a special part on its annual report, "The Gulf Yearbook", for Iran – Also, our Center has translated and published many studies about Iran, and most of these articles could be accessed on our website: http://www.grc.ae.
I hereby call upon the experts and scholars specialized in Iranian affairs to contribute to our publications and introduce their valuable insights to our readers in both Arabic and English.
Dear guests,
Once again, I would like to thank you all for your participation in this seminar, which is going to be a thought- provoking and fruitful event, thanks to your contributions.
I should like to avail myself of this opportunity to express my deep gratitude and many thanks to the University of Durham, whose valuable efforts and collaboration with the Gulf Research Center have made it possible to organize and ultimately hold this seminar.
Thank you for coming all the way to this event, and my best wishes for a very pleasant stay in this great emirate of Sharjah.
Thank you,
The Gulf Research Center together with the NATO Division of Public Diplomacy will be hosting a one-day specialized conference on Promoting Cooperation and Fostering Relations: NATO-Gulf relations in the Framework of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. The event will take place on September 26, 2005, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
With its decision to adopt the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative in June 2004, NATO underscored its intention to work with interested countries in the Middle East, starting with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, to foster mutually beneficial bilateral relationships and thus enhance security and stability. The purpose of this meeting to explore the practical possibilities of such cooperation and to see how the relationship between NATO and the member states of the GCC can be enhanced and promoted.
In addition to the expert presentations by leading specialists from NATO and the GCC States, the event will be attended by a number of high-level diplomats from both the GCC and the NATO side. This will make it possible to provide an in-depth look at the issue of a possible NATO role in Gulf security matters.
WELCOME REMARKS
Abdulaziz O. Sager
Chairman
Gulf Research Center
Allow me at the outset to extend a warm welcome to all the participants and attendees who have joined us today for this very timely and important meeting of the Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the NATO Division of Public Diplomacy on a discussion on NATO-GCC Relations in the Framework of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI). I am particularly pleased to have with us the Assistant Secretary-General for Public Diplomacy Mr. Jean Fournet, Dr. Alberto Bin and Mr. Nicola De Santis from the NATO Headquarters in Brussels who have agreed to sponsor this event with the GRC and who over the past year have expressed an intense interest to have a forum in the region under which NATO policy and especially its programs vis-à-vis the GCC states can be discussed and elaborated upon. I must really thank them for all the support and assistance they have provided us with and I want to extend a special welcome to them here in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates.
Over the past year, the GRC has undertaken a number of initiatives to build upon its relationship with NATO. In fact almost precisely to the date a year ago, we were very fortunate to be able to host Deputy Secretary-General Ambassador Alessandro Minuto Rizzo at the Gulf Research Center in September 2004 for a roundtable discussion that coincided with the Secretary’s initial talks with regional governments about the ICI and NATO’s offer of a broadened relationship. And just three weeks ago, the GRC under its Executive Leadership Program on European institutions took a group of twenty-five leading Gulf professionals and policy practitioners to NATO Headquarters for a visit and briefing by Ambassador Rizzo, Mr. Nicola De Santis and the American Ambassador Victoria Nuland. Again, we thank them for their cooperation. We found the visit to the hallowed halls of NATO to be extremely useful and informative.
Since first announcing its Istanbul Cooperation Initiative and stating its willingness to broaden its outreach to the Middle East region and specifically the Gulf, NATO has proceeded at a relatively rapid rate and has been able to conclude agreements with four of the six GCC States – Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates under the ICI umbrella. Discussions are continuing with Oman and Saudi Arabia and are likely to be brought to a positive conclusion shortly. This is a development to be welcomed as an expanded NATO role in the Gulf is likely to contribute to greater security and stability in the region.
At the same time, there is still a lot of confusion and uncertainty about the objectives and interests of NATO. Particularly as far as the public is concerned, there is little concrete understanding about what the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative is really about or what the purpose behind this new approach is. To overcome this information deficit and to be able to elaborate more fully about NATO’s intentions, we agreed to hold this joint conference so that people in the Gulf region will become more aware about this important initiative and so that NATO itself can enlighten us all about its intended and envisioned role in the near future.
Overcoming existing perceptions will be critical if NATO is to succeed in making the ICI a key component of a more inclusive regional security dialogue. In that context, it is important that one begins to better understand the composition of NATO as an organization, to comprehend the relationship between NATO and the United States as well as the rest of the member states and to get a better sense of the different components that make up the ICI. Here, it is not sufficient just to mention that the NATO initiative is one in which each member state can determine its own scope and rate of participation. Rather, it is the region itself that has to be informed about what role issues such as improving border security, the fight against international terrorism, the movement towards greater interoperability as part of military-to-military cooperation, or working against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction play within the thinking of NATO and how such cooperation is actually being enacted. Overall, the true nature and extent of the relationship between NATO and the GCC member states as well as the ICI initiative itself needs to be well and better defined.
In addition, there is a need to clear up existing misperceptions that also the GCC states as a whole must begin to understand. Although NATO was primarily established as a military organization that formed itself within the context of the Cold War period, the alliance has grown beyond its initial mandate to include a political component that is of equal if not greater importance. This is partly due to the fact that NATO is a multilateral organization that operates on the basis of consensus and where decision-making is done at the collective level. Over the past decade, NATO has already undergone a substantial transformation concerning its mission and objectives and it is today no longer the same organization that stood across from the Warsaw Pact countries only twenty years ago.
Given that history and the way that NATO has begun to structure itself today, there is a lot that the GCC States can learn from such an experience. Furthermore, it becomes both possible and necessary to relate that experience to how the two sides can begin to work together to promote mutual political interests and act against common security concerns. NATO’s knowledge and practice in constructing a multilateral alliance network, in burden-sharing as well as in promoting individual country specialization ultimately leading to a more effective coalition, is unprecedented and of direct utility for the GCC States.
From its action in both the Balkans and the current function that NATO is performing in Afghanistan, it is clear that NATO has a significant role to play in the shifting global security environment and one that is very much appreciated. Given the volatile security situation that currently exists in the Gulf, NATO can play a role in assisting the region to develop more comprehensive and lasting structures that can deal with the dangers with which the region might be confronted. This again is an area where initiatives such as the ICI can play an important function and one hopefully over which participants and delegates will engage in a substantive discussion over the course of the day.
It is in the tradition of events at the Gulf Research Center that we encourage everyone here to be as frank and open as possible and to take advantages of such a gathering to take a serious look at the issues that confront us. While we are only at the beginning in terms of focusing on what a future role for NATO in the region could look like, this is indeed a critical subject where the early interjection and involvement of as many people as possible will allow us to formulate what we hope are concrete and applicable policy prescriptions. This is something that I encourage everyone here to do.
Once again I thank you all for coming and I look forward to the discussions to follow.
A central aim of the activities of the Gulf Research Center is the conduct of a variety of executive learning programs. These programs are designed to provide leadership development opportunities in all aspects of public policy. It is the view of GRC that programs in governmental processes and critical policy issues are critical to understand today’s environment and prepare emerging and established leaders to more effectively engage with individuals and institutions throughout the rest of the world.
GRC programs are directly tied to the Center’s commitment to research and its involvement with public policy. Participants have the opportunity to learn from and exchange ideas with leading scholars and senior public policy officials in the respective field. In that context, GRC Executive Learning Programs create a learning environment that is unparalleled in both its scope and value as far as Gulf issues are concerned.
Understanding the European Union is part of the GCC-EU Partnership Program and focuses on the increasingly important strategic relationship between the Arab Gulf region and the European Union. Bringing together expert policy practitioners, focused discussion and visits to the EU institutions, this program provides unparalleled insight for any professional concerned with deepening their knowledge about the European Union.
The terrorist atrocities committed in London on July 7th 2005 were a horrific act of cowardice and a crime against humanity. The Arab and Islamic world stand fully behind the United Kingdom in its fight to bring the perpetrators of this act to justice and wish to offer all possible solidarity and support to overcome those who willfully abuse the name of Islam for their immoral agendas.
It is with this conviction that the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is hosting a one-day workshop on July 28th 2005 in London. We are hosting this event, at which Arab and British diplomats, governmental officials and counter-terrorism experts are invited to exchange ideas and better understand the themes that define the fight against terrorism today. It is our hope and wish that the solidarity we feel with the United Kingdom as it responds to these atrocities should not pass without comment and action. We believe that in order to face this challenge, we must work to transform this tragic experience into greater cooperation and understanding.
As the events of the past few years have shown, we are all victims of terrorism. From New York to Madrid and London, from Morocco to Istanbul and Bali as well as the Gulf countries, the war against terror is a global war that affects all our futures. Terrorists do not distinguish between Arabs and Westerners, Muslims and non-Muslims – these are imaginary lines that should not divide us either. We fully stand behind the findings of the UN High Level Panel of December 2004 and the words of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that “terrorism is a threat to all states and to all peoples, which can strike anytime, anywhere.”
The workshop will address two main themes;
• On the political level, addressing the impact of terrorism and how we can overcome this threat,
• On the practical level, tackling critical co-operative measures that need to be undertaken together to fight terrorism on every front
Workshop Language will be English. No translation service will be provided.
Opening Remarks by Abdulaziz Sager
Chairman, Gulf Research Center:
Your Excellencies,
Distinguished Guests,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is my pleasure to welcome you on behalf of the Gulf Research Center and to thank you for being here with us on such short notice.
Three weeks ago to this day, Londoners woke up to shocking news. Something described a year beforehand as being "inevitable" by London's Chief of Metropolitan Police had arrived - the city had suffered a terrorist attack.
Although the events of Thursday, the 7th of July resulted in the loss of dozens of innocent lives, scores of serious causalities and great deal of unnecessary physical damage, the perpetrators of this immoral deed aimed at far more than human or physical damage in planning this criminal act.
The real casualty, they hoped, would lie beyond the visible impact of the bombs. Their target was to undermine the trust, the cordial relations, and the harmony within multi-racial British society and to inflict deep and permanent damage to Arab and Moslem relations with the United Kingdom in particular and with the Western states and societies in general.
Today, we meet to send clear message to whoever planned this barbaric act. We meet as representatives of Arabs, Britons and Westerners regardless of our religious beliefs, to convey the message to those responsible for this attack that we will work relentlessly to undermine their strategy and foil their objectives.
As a Gulf and Arab think-tank, the GRC sensed an urgent need to organize this event. This meeting represents a modest endeavor to pass on a message of solidarity coming from the heart of the Arab and Moslem world. It aims to share with the British people and British government their revulsion at this act and to say that there can be no religious, moral, or political justification for the murder of innocent people.
This workshop was inspired by the feeling that after the attacks in both London and other cities around the world, no-one is safe; we are all in one boat and all of us live under the shadow and the threat of international terrorism.
Terrorism today does not recognize geographical and political borders, nationality, race, or religion. It is an act of blind and indiscriminate killing.
Let me take this opportunity to express my sincere admiration of the British popular and official reaction and response to the attack, which can only be described as calm, calculated and professional. Rather than panic and make rash decisions – which is what those responsible would have wanted – the authorities on the scene made sure their behavior was exemplary.
Our discussions during this workshop will focus on two major themes. The first part of the meeting will consist of two sessions and will cover political dimensions of the incident. The British view point and response to the terror attacks will be given in the first session followed by speakers from the Arab and Islamic world and the Gulf region. The third and fourth sessions will focus on the practical questions of counter-terrorism and will include a discussion of efforts and strategies required in this field. We hope to cast some light on the crucial question of terrorist organization recruitment strategies and end the discussion with prospects for promoting Arab–British cooperation in the field of counter-terrorism.
We are grateful to all of you who accepted our invitation and greatly appreciate the generosity of the speakers who agreed to share their thoughts with us. We look forward to a fruitful and enlightening session.
Thank You.
The workshop will be the second in a series of meetings organized by the GRC as part of its recently created Research Program to promote declaring the Gulf region a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Free Zone. The Research Program was created following a workshop hosted by the GRC here in Dubai on December 11-12, 2004. High level representatives from countries in the region, as well as international experts and academics took part in a two day workshop discussion on the highly critical issue of WMD proliferation in the region and the ramifications of these developments on countries in the Gulf as well as the international community. The results of this meeting were very positive both on a regional and international level indicating a growing consensus that promoting the principle of a Gulf WMDFZ is an important step towards creating regional security architecture. click here for details.
The Stockholm meeting in May is part of the GRC"s aim to sponsor and promote a regional disarmament research project in the Gulf, based on the principle that all states in the region must reject the proliferation of WMD. The workshop is jointly hosted by SIPRI as part of their mission to conduct scientific research on questions of conflict and co-operation for international peace and security: it will also be complementary with an ongoing SIPRI research program that is reviewing ways to optimize the European Union’s cooperation with its neighbors in tackling WMD challenges, both state and non state.
Whereas the GRC meeting in December laid out a framework for dialogue amongst the Gulf States and their international partners, suggesting a step-by step road map to achieving the objective of clearing the region of WMD, the upcoming meeting aims to discuss the parameters of such an endeavor in greater detail including:
• the reasons behind a Gulf sub-strategy approach to a wider Middle East
security arrangement,
• the role of states within the region in promoting official support for a Gulf
WMDFZ and implementing the logistical mechanisms for sustaining this zone,
• the role of states and organizations outside the region in working with Gulf
partners to achieve mutually beneficial security objectives.
The workshop will bring together a diverse range of expert perspectives on this subject. The GRC-SIPRI vision is to help open the door for dialogue between the states of the Gulf and the international community on this subject
Whether currencies, oil or offshore investments, every crucial economic factor in the Gulf countries is highly dependent on the US dollar, which shows increasing signs of structural weakness. In his lecture, Dr. Lips, a worldwide renowned gold and currency expert, will discuss how the Gulf countries can escape potential financial disaster and how they could act in the current economic environment. Dr. Lips will also look at how the Gulf countries can preserve their investment capacities most effectively given that the ongoing boom in oil and commodity prices is reminiscent of the stagflation scenario of the seventies. In that respect, he will pay special attention to the huge supply deficit in the gold sector and the efforts that have been undertaken to address this problem.
The fundamental objective of the "The Social Sciences and Humanities Forum 2005" to be held by the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in April 2005 is to create an academic platform for discussion and exchanging of views and expertise among scholars and university professors specialized in social sciences and humanities in the GCC States. The objective is to enhance academic research in these disciplines as well as strengthen the concept of specialized academic groups, that usually take upon themselves the mission of boosting the social sciences and humanities in their own countries, along with modernizing the concepts and approaches used in these fields, while striving to link them with the prevailing trends across the world.
GRC, in coordination with the Arab Bureau of Education for the Gulf States (ABEG), convened the first "Social Sciences and Humanities Forum" on March 9 and 10, 2004. The theme of the first Forum was "Future Prospects for Higher Education in the GCC States". The recommendations issued at the end of the first Forum pinpointed the importance of sustaining academic interest in the issue of higher education, in light of the key role it plays in building human capital and its ability to groom a labor force capable of dealing efficiently and effectively with current and future developments, particularly at a time the world is witnessing a sweeping revolution in the fields of communication, media and IT.
Given the fact that educational technologies and methods represent a vital component within the educational process, as they have a direct impact on the quality of university graduates, the GRC has decided to dedicate the second Social Sciences and Humanities Forum to discussing "E-Learning in Social Sciences and Humanities."
E-learning is based in large part on adopting the methods and technologies developed by the IT and communication revolution, especially the Internet, and employing them as part of the different components of the educational enterprise, including:
• Educational curricula;
• Teaching methods (interaction between teacher and students);
• Electronic libraries (e-libraries) and the services they provide for students
and teaching faculties;
• Academic assessment of students’ performance;
• Academic research; and
• Administrative aspects of the educational enterprise.
In the GCC States, embracing modern technologies in higher education in general and in the area of social sciences and humanities in particular, means addressing the following core issues, which also form the
Objectives of the Social Sciences and Humanities Forum 2005:
1- Identifying and discussing the most outstanding modern technologies and
methods that prevail in international higher educational institutions in the
fields of the social sciences and humanities.
2- Understanding the current conditions in higher education in the fields of
social sciences and humanities in the GCC States in connection with the
educational technologies and methods used in public as well as in private
universities, colleges and institutes.
3- Deliberating appropriate ways and means of expanding the use of modern
technologies and methods in higher education, particularly in the fields of
social sciences and humanities in the GCC States.
Globalization is changing the entire international business system, with, notably, the economic rise of Asia’s giants, China and India, which, as Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, has noted, is “the most important story of our age, as it heralds the end, in the not too distant future, of as much as five centuries of domination by the Europeans and their colonial offshoots”.
Though early pundits of globalization perceived it as involving a significant swing from a state command economy to a laissez-faire free market economy, recent evidence seems to prove that what is critical for the success of both economies and business is a dynamic interaction between progressive state policies and the market, allowing for innovative business strategies.
This event assessed the forces and trends in economic policy and business strategy and the implications arising for transforming the Arab region into a dynamic hub of global business.
The work of the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is animated by a vision that rests essentially on its deep conviction that the Arabian Gulf region does not merely represent a geographical mass made up of a number of adjacent states; rather, the GRC approaches the Gulf region as a geographical structure that incorporates a complex set of inter-woven interests, policies and relations. These are so closely inter-related that events in any one state in the region directly affect other states.
No doubt, the current situation in Iraq embodies the most dramatic and outstanding event in the Gulf region, both at present and in the near future, as ongoing developments in that war-battered country certainly carry wide-ranging ramifications for Iraq itself and for other countries across the region.
Setting out from this undeniable reality, the GRC has decided to convene a symposium entitled Iraq and its Neighboring Countries: Mutual Visions.
This is the second academic event in a series of annual symposia held by the GRC and devoted specially to the Iraqi file.
Debates at the symposium will examine and analyze as well as propound forecasts on Iraq’s relations with each state within Iraq’s proximate geographical sphere. An Iraqi researcher, and a peer researcher from a neighboring state, will each be assigned to write a research paper to be discussed and commented upon by a third scholar. The point is to ensure the greatest degree of objectivity and comprehensiveness in approach.
The symposium will be held on March 30, 2005. In fact, the timing is quite appropriate, as it coincides with the second anniversary of the outbreak of the war against Iraq. By March 2005, many developments that appear today foggy and opaque might probably grow clearer, especially after the Iraqi elections that tookplace on 30 january 2005.
The Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (Cairo), the Gulf Research Center (Dubai) the Institut Diplomatique et des Relations Internationales (Algiers), the Centre Tarik Ibn Zyad (Rabat) have agreed to form a Consortium of Research Institutes, with the participation of the Governments of Canada and Denmark. Their objective is to jointly run three major conferences in 2005 to consider the creation of a Framework for Regional Co-operation and Security in the Middle East and North Africa.
This Track Two project will build upon previous work on the subject, notably a project which was run at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute - SIPRI (1995-1999) and a project in 2003 to draft a Regional Security Charter for the Middle East, sponsored by UCLA and the Danish Government.
The Consortium will invite experts from across the Middle East and North Africa, acting in their personal capacities. Also invited to participate in their personal capacities will be experts from regional organizations, such as the Arab League, the Gulf Co-operation Council and the Maghreb Arab Union. Finally, experts, in their personal capacities, will be invited from certain countries and multilateral organizations external to the region.
The first conference will be hosted by the Centre Tarik Ibn Zyad in Morocco in June, 2005, on behalf of the Consortium. The second will be hosted by the Al Ahram Center in Egypt in the autumn of 2005, also on behalf of the Consortium. The date and location of the third will be announced shortly.
At the conclusion of the three conferences, the Consortium members will jointly release a policy paper summarizing the three conferences and outlining a possible strategy towards the creation of a Framework, or Charter, for Regional Co-operation and Security in the Middle East and North Africa. The Consortium members recognize that the success of any strategy to develop such a Framework is dependent on a number of factors, including the success of the Peace Process.
The meeting participants included: Military Adviser at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo - Major General (Retd.) Dr Mohamed Kadry Said; Head of Political Affairs at the Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi - Isabelle Martin; Policy Adviser for Strategic Policy and Planning at the Canadian Privy Council Office - Dr. Peter Jones; former Moroccan member of parliament and representative from the Centre Tariq ibn Zyad in Rabat - Hassan Benaddi; Head of the Department for the Middle East in the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Rasmus Grue Christensen; and Director-General of the Institute Diplomatique et des Relations Internationales in Algiers - M. Smail Benamara.
The conference features the release and presentation of the annual GRC Report “The Gulf in the Year 2004.” This report, written by prominent scholars and experts, features an analytical overview of the year’s major developments and relates their significance to the political, economic, defense, security and social issues.
Opening Speech
Abdulaziz Sager
In the Name of Allah the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
Dear guests,
It is a pleasure to welcome you today. On this occasion I wish you a happy and successful new year. I hope 2005 will bring more security, stability and peace into our region and throughout the world.
I would also like to extend my heartfelt thanks to you for being with us today to participate in the Gulf Research Center’s(GRC) Annual Conference devoted this year to the presentation of the GRC’s ‘The Gulf Yearbook 2004’. This annual conference represents our first academic event inaugurating the GRC’s activities for 2005.
Ladies & gentlemen,
You may well be aware of the wide recognition and warm reception that the “Gulf Yearbook 2003” received from a number of academics and experts as well as a large number of research centers based in the Arab region and throughout the world. Many political and media organizations, both in the Gulf region and across the world, have expressed their deep interest in the Yearbook. This encouragement has motivated us to sustain our efforts to continually improve and better the content and format of the Yearbook so that it becomes a reliable reference book for all those interested in the affairs of the Gulf region.
“The Gulf Yearbook 2004” is a well-documented and methodological overview of the most salient developments and interactions that have unraveled throughout 2004 across the GCC States in addition to Iraq, Iran and Yemen. The content of “The Gulf Yearbook 2004” spans the political, economic and security developments in all these countries exploring both their intra-regional relations amongst each other and also on the international level with other countries. In parallel, the Yearbook analyzes the trends and positions held by some key international powers towards the Gulf region. It also anticipates the probable developments likely to unfold on the Gulf scene in the foreseeable future.
Ladies & gentlemen,
This GRC Annual Conference is part of a series of academic events organized by the Center during 2004 as well as an inauguration for forthcoming events to be held during the new year.
• Last March, the GRC held the First Annual Social Sciences and Humanities Forum which assess and outlines the current conditions of the social sciences and humanities in the GCC countries.
• In April 2004, on the first anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq and its subsequent occupation, the GRC convened a special workshop on the developments in Iraq and their actual and probable ramifications for the GCC States.
• In September, the Center hosted another workshop in collaboration with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the current situation and the future prospects of political reform in the GCC States, and another one entitled ‘New Trends in the Gulf Media between Domestic Needs & External Pressures’
• In October, the GRC organized yet another workshop on the problem of unemployment and the prevailing conditions in the GCC labor markets. In November, the GRC held a workshop on the EU and the security of the Gulf region in the aftermath of the Iraq war. The objective of this workshop was to determine the dimensions and also limits of the role the EU could play in any future security arrangements in the Gulf region.
• In December, the GRC took an unprecedented initiative by organizing a workshop devoted to the discussion of the principles and requirements for making the Gulf region a weapons of mass destruction free zone (WMDFZ) as a prelude to eliminating WMDs from the entire Middle East region.
• In February 2005, the center will convene the Sixth meeting of the representatives of universities, public educational sectors and heads of the Chambers of Commerce and Industries of the member states of the Arab Bureau of Education for the Gulf States. In March, the center will hold a conference in collaboration with the IMD about management in the Gulf region. Another symposium on Iraq will be held under the title "Iraq and the Neighboring Countries: Reciprocal Visions" marking the second anniversary of the invasion and occupation of Iraq. In April, the GRC will hold the Second Annual Social Sciences and Humanities Forum on the E-education in the GCC countries. In April 2005, the Center will hold a workshop on the myriad developments in Iraq and its geographical neighborhood marking the second year after the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Likewise, the Center’s events agenda includes a symposium that will be devoted to the discussion of the problems and challenges confronting centers of research and studies in the Gulf region and the ways existing problems could be solved.
Ladies & gentlemen,
As the Gulf Yearbook assumes undeniable importance in the field of specialized Gulf studies, the Center strives assiduously to develop the Yearbook into a key channel of communication and interaction amongst Arab scholars specialized in the affairs of the Gulf region and their peer non-Arab scholars. The Yearbook therefore includes contributions by Arab as well as non-Arab scholars and experts drawn notably from the US, some European countries, India, China, Japan, Turkey, Iran and others.
In this regard, I would like to extend my sincere thanks and gratitude to the distinguished panel of experts and scholars who made such valuable contributions to this Yearbook, both in-house researchers and outside experts who form part of the Center’s extensive network of academics who contribute to our work. All contributions, I should emphasize, are marked by their high degree of academic excellence and intellectual rigor. The GRC Yearbook could not have been successfully completed without these valuable contributions.
My warmest thanks go to the professors, experts, scholars and translators who have contributed to editing, translating and proof-reading of the Yearbook. Each one of them, without exception, has conducted his or her job with professionalism and dedication. Thanks to their concerted efforts, the GRC is able today to publish the Gulf Yearbook 2004 on schedule.
I should also thank the various governmental and non-governmental organizations and departments that never once hesitated to offer (and continue to offer) their encouragement to the GRC. I express my special thanks to the Secretariat-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council. I also thank the scholars, experts and students who have come forward with positive feedback on the first “Gulf Yearbook 2003” placing upon our shoulders an even greater responsibility to continue improving the Yearbook until it is on a par with the specialized international reports published by other leading academic institutions.
Ladies & gentlemen,
The Gulf Yearbook 2004 is one of the chief publications put out by the GRC. It complements a series of other publications such as ‘Iraq Studies’, ‘Yemen Studies’, ‘Iran Studies’, ‘Gulf Translations’, ‘Research Papers’, ‘Gulf Papers’, in addition to ‘Gulf Studies Journal’ set to be published periodically, ‘Araa’ journal which will be published on a monthly basis beginning this month, and the series of specialized books issued by the Center. All of these publications are available in both Arabic and English and all of them are published in both hard copy and electronically. Everything produced by the Center is accessible on the GRC website at www.grc.ae.
I would like to reaffirm that the GRC welcomes your academic contributions in order to make them available to our readers in both hard copy and on the Center’s website.
As far as the Annual Conference is concerned, I should point out that the brochure you have includes summaries in both Arabic and English of the full content of the Gulf Yearbook 2004.
During the first session of the conference, we will present a brief overview of the most critical domestic developments and issues that have unfolded in the GCC States at the political, economic, social, security and defense levels, together with issues related to the status and conditions of women and civil society organizations.
The second session of the conference will be devoted to a presentation of the most prominent developments and issues linked to the GCC States’ foreign relations and interactions both at the intra-GCC level and the GCC-Arab level as well as the GCC States’ relations with a number of foreign countries.
A panel of scholars and experts who have contributed to the content of the Yearbook will answer any question or issues you may like to raise.
Ladies & gentlemen,
Out of the GRC’s vision of ‘knowledge for all’ and out of its strong conviction that constructive dialogue and critical awareness are central components of any efforts to boost academic endeavors in the GCC countries, the Center welcomes all your comments and critiques on “The Gulf Yearbook 2004.” We assure you that they will be taken into serious consideration in the forthcoming issues of the Yearbook.
Once again, I thank you all for your participation and I wish our honorable guests an enjoyable stay in Dubai.
Thank you,
The attacks of September 11, 2001, the subsequent US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime signified a watershed in US/GCC relations with urgent ramifications for the Middle East region. As a result, the GCC states are faced with a critical period in terms of balancing the new dynamics of foreign strategic interests and internal security issues, reflected in the growing discontent of its people and in the region as a whole, against the unilateral and perceived ideological thrust of the Bush Administration’s foreign policy.
More specifically for the GCC states, the rapid developments in US foreign policy over the last four years have forced important questions to the forefront of the political debate including the nature of future US-GCC relations, the place of the GCC States in a developing US strategic framework, the impact of the US determination to seek political change in the region, and the role played by economic forces in a high oil price environment. The re-election of George W. Bush in November 2004 has undoubtedly affected each of these central issues. The GCC countries must develop and present a common policy approach to the US with regards to energy, security, democratic development, the security vacuum in Iraq and the now critical emerging dynamics with Iran on the nuclear issue.
In light of these developments, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is hosting a workshop, organized in conjunction with GRC’s second annual conference and the presentation of the annual report “The Gulf in the Year 2004”, in order to take an in-depth look at the role and policies of the United States with regard to the Gulf region, in particular its objectives, its geo-political and geo-strategic context, as well as the broader implications for the regional environment. Specific emphasis will be given to the shifts that have occurred over the past year in light of events in Iraq and the continuing US “war on terrorism.”
The conference comes at a particularly apt time. It is our intention to put forward a first assessment on the key strategic parameters of a future US Gulf policy under a second term of the Bush presidency. Key considerations include the important question of whether a second Bush term will be based on the policies outlined in the first, or whether his administration will differentiate their foreign policy approach.
Objectives of the Workshop:
• To assess the stated and intended policies of the Bush administration for
the Gulf region in order to understand the concerns and aims of both the
US and Gulf countries over the next four years;
• To discuss the approach that the Bush administration will likely take in
terms of the US Greater Middle East Partnership initiatives and to what
degree a more sustained push for political liberalization and reform
measures can be expected;
• To analyze whether the transformation in GCC-US relations from the
beginning of the Bush administration in 2000 are likely to continue and to
determine the implications of such a course, in particular as far as the war
on terrorism is concerned;
• To focus on the possible scenarios and outcomes over the coming years as
far as Iraq is concerned and place these assessments within the overall
strategic framework for the region and the implications for GCC security;
• To assess the developments of US/Iran relations and the potential
ramifications for Gulf stability;
• To analyze how economic developments in the energy sector are likely to
impact the overall relationship;
• To define common areas of interests in which the GCC States and the US
can cooperate together as a means to stabilize the security environment in
the Gulf region;
• To discuss what the policy of the GCC States towards the United States
should be in order to formulate and present a cohesive and unified position
on the above issues.
Also see the Research Program: GCC Relations with US
Gulf Research Center will host a lecture entitled Role of the Arab Research Centers During the Current Developments
The death of Yaser Arafat on November 11, 2004, after 35 years as Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and 10 years as President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), was widely heralded in the international community as providing an opportunity to resume the
There is indeed a window of opportunity for positive change in Palestinian politics on both the domestic and external fronts, but this is likely to pass unfulfilled and eventually lead to even greater domestic strife if it is not matched by a similar shift on the Israeli side. Such a shift appears exceedingly unlikely. Indeed, all indications are that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, parties of the Israeli nationalist-religious Right, and the powerful settler lobby see an opportunity of a very different type: to extend even further and legitimize the colonization of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, while deferring for at least a decade, if not permanently, discussion, let alone resolution, of the status of East Jerusalem and the rights of Palestinian refugees.
This deeply worrying prospect is reinforced by the uncritical support provided to the Government of Israel (GoI) by the US Administration, which has ushered in a sea-change in the
The central argument of this talk, therefore, is that the most likely prospect for
During the past few months a noticeable diplomatic and international media campaign has intensified vis-à-vis the possibility, present and future, of a WMD and in particular nuclear development in the Gulf region. The threat that certain countries in the region may cease their reliance on conventional weapons and turn instead to developing WMDs poses a grave security concern. Any such development will have immense historic implications for the security and stability of the Gulf region, which remains a vital element for the stability and prosperity of the world as the main source of international oil exports
It is now imperative that the people of the region as well as their governments discuss the implications of this possible development. If any one of the Gulf States manages to acquire nuclear capabilities or nuclear weapons, the people of the region would be the primary victims. Any assessment of the issues at stake must bear in mind that the type of primitive nuclear capabilities - should any of the regional states proceed with such a development program - would not in any way constitute a real deterrence against the world’s great powers or even the region"s nuclear powers. These nations posses huge and well-developed nuclear capabilities able to deal efficiently with any new threat emanating from a nascent nuclear power with limited technological capabilities. Therefore the real and immediate outcome of any WMD development in the Gulf from a security, political, and environmental perspective would be to the detriment of the security of the Gulf States and the safety and security of the people of the region.
The GRC, as a regional think tank that is deeply concerned with the wider geopolitical and strategic dimensions of the affairs of the Gulf which includes the six member states of the GCC Council, in addition to Iraq, Iran and Yemen, and as part of the Center’s commitment to serve and enhance the security, stability and prosperity of the people and countries of the region, strongly believes that it is now urgent to consider pre-emptive measures against the possibility that the Gulf region involve itself in a WMD arms-race thereby entering a dangerous phase in its history.
Given the recent developments across the region, the GRC, out of its concern and as part of its stated mission to promote regional stability and support peaceful co-existence across the Gulf, has taken the initiative in its capacity as an independent think-tank to put the issue on the table for regional debate. The main objective of this GRC initiative is to use the lessons and examples from nations that faced similar crises in the past and managed to find viable solutions through a rational approach that protected the core interests of the people of their regions. The outcome of past efforts has been the signing of a number of historic agreements to disarm and destroy the nuclear capabilities of certain countries. Notable instances include the voluntary decision by the government of South Africa in 1990 to dismantle their nuclear arsenal, or the historic agreements to declare regional-geographical blocs as WMD-free zones, as was the case with the declaration and commitment of Latin American and Caribbean countries in 1967, the agreement signed by the countries of the South Pacific in 1985, the agreement ratified by African countries in 1996 and the agreement ratified by Central Asian countries in 2002.
The outstanding success achieved by the four regions which were all declared as nuclear- and WMD-free zones, covering more than 110 countries is an encouraging incentive for the Gulf region.
Conducting a constructive dialogue and debate on this particular issue is one of the top priorities of GRC. The current workshop represents the primary core for future activities and events that the GRC plans to hold in a bid to sustain the continuation of serious debate on the need to build a comprehensive and efficient regional security system as well as consolidate regional stability, cooperation and peaceful coexistence among the countries in the region. The project for the declaration of the Gulf region as WMD-free zone is, in fact, one of the most vital requirements for the establishment of a regional security system.
It is worth pointing out in this context that the GRC strongly believes that the entire Middle East region ought to be declared a WMD-free zone. The GRC regards the Gulf project as a vital starting-point for a future security architecture that would, if successful, include the whole Middle East region. The GRC believes that the success of this project will contribute towards reinforcing a new framework of security principles and- in the long-term- intensify regional and international pressures on any remaining Middle East countries that possess WMD capabilities towards a disarmament agreement. It is hoped that the project will give rise to a new legal and political reality that will undermine the much-repeated political and moral justifications and arguments deployed by Israel to defend their nuclear arsenal.
The GRC"s optimism in this endeavor is based on the past success of other nations and regions in creating WMD free zones. Beginning with the acceptance of one nation to this principle, many countries were able to coerce neighboring countries in specific regions to accept disarmament either through caving in to regional and international pressure, as was the case with South Africa’s decision to destroy its nuclear arsenal and join the declaration of Africa as a nuclear-free zone, or by taking the historic decision to completely abandon advanced programs for the development of WMDs, as was the case with Brazil and Argentina, both of which joined the declaration of Latin American states of the region as WMD-free zone.
The GRC hopes the debates at this workshop will focus on these sensitive issues on two levels; Firstly, a regional and open dialogue among the nine states of the Gulf region expressing their concerns and reservations on the subject of regional security. Secondly, a regional-international discussion, involving international organizations and a number of the world’s great powers whose interests have become intertwined within the security structure of the Gulf region. The Gulf should look towards the US, the EU member states and the Russian Federation amongst other nations for real dialogue on the objective of declaring the region a WMD free zone.
Opening Remarks by GRC Chairman Abdulaziz O. Sager
Dear Guests,
It is my pleasure to welcome you at the Gulf Research Center here today, to discuss an issue of paramount importance.
The GRC like most other think tanks around the globe has a clear vision and a well defined mission.
It is an unfortunate fact that in the Gulf region and in the greater Middle East we are facing major problems and formidable challenges. We are living in a permanent and constant crisis, where a lot of blood, money, and effort are wasted needlessly and inhumanly.
This region is so unique and so vital to the entire world, irrespective of its geographical separation or cultural diversity. It is simply the main reservoir of the energy supply to the machinery of modern civilization.
Accordingly, we strongly believe that interests in the stability of this region must be a shared responsibility between the inhabitants of the region and the rest of the world.
The GRC vision is simple, logical and legitimate. It is focused, and revolves on promoting one simple objective, which is: the basic right of the people of the Gulf region is to live in a stable, peaceful, and secure environment, and we rightly believe that everyone in this region and even beyond, shares our desires and aspirations.
We said that the Gulf is an identifiable region or a sub – region consisting of nine countries. We strongly believe in the principle of inclusion and not exclusion, based on the fact that the stability and prosperity of this region could not be achieved without the full and active participation of all the nine states of the geo – political or geo – strategic Gulf.
A major role of this Center’s activities is directed towards promoting the basic components of a durable, sustainable, just and equal security system that could lead to a stable and secure region. This specific theme of promoting regional security measures in the Gulf region was the focus of the GRC workshop jointly held last November with the Bertelsmann Foundation of Germany.
Today, we are taking another step towards achieving this objective. We will attempt to put on the table a new idea to underpin and strengthen the regional security concept. We cannot achieve security or be part of an agreed regional security regime without first accepting and endorsing the basic principle of prohibiting the development, production, stockpiling, and the use of Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) in the region.
The shortest and most effective approach to achieving this noble objective is to utilize other nations’ and regions’ experiences in this field , from Latin America, Africa, South Pacific, Central Asia and other regions, in the hope of promoting the project of declaring the Gulf region as a WMD free zone. Today we have five well established Nuclear Free Zones around the Globe, and more than 110 states, collectively and/or individually that accepted the legally binding obligation to renounce the Nuclear or WMD option and abandon all developments of such weapons.
Our task today and tomorrow is to discuss and encourage the development of the Gulf as a WMD free zone. In that sense we aspire to be the voice of the voiceless, irrespective of their nationality or the attitude of their own government or political leadership.
We are fully aware that the entire Middle East region needs to be declared as a WMD free zone, but equally we believe that our success in establishing the Gulf as a WMD free zone region is a crucial first step. We hope that it will have a huge impact on the entire Middle East, generating the necessary pressure and positive political environment in which the expansion of this concept to include the entire Middle East region could be accelerated.
Thank you again for being here and we hope that this workshop leads to practical and feasible recommendations and solutions.
From November 23 – 25, 2004, the Gulf Research Center along with the Bertelsmann Foundation, Germany and its scientific partner the Center for Applied Policy Research (CAP), Muncih, held a workshop entitled “A New Window of Opportunity?: Europe, Gulf Security and the Aftermath of the Iraq War.” The event brought together over 30 specialists including representatives from all the GCC members states and numerous European Union countries to discuss the impact of the Iraq War on the current security situation in the region and to outline the steps that can by taken by the EU to alleviate the resulting challenges.
Perhaps one of the most outstanding ramifications of the oil boom era that marked the seventies of the past century across the GCC countries is the panoply of grand and ambitious infrastructural, particularly construction, projects that were edified at the time. However, due to the limited size of the Gulf population, and the equally limited pool of manpower, huge numbers of expatriate workers, especially Asian, flooded the GCC labor markets. As time passed, a worrisome demographic imbalance started to emerge in all the GCC countries, though with varying degrees, so much so, in fact, that nationals have come to represent in some GCC States a demographic minority in their own countries.
More critically, the increasing numbers of expatriate workers in the GCC countries over the last few years have contributed to increasing the rate of unemployment among GCC nationals. Unemployment has even hit the ranks of expatriate workers themselves, as a remarkable number of the expatriate labor community belongs to non-skilled or semi-skilled labor categories.
Even though mushrooming unemployment remains an undeniable reality across the GCC countries, no reliable data or accurate statistics are available as to the real size of this phenomenon.
Given the actual and potential dangers usually associated with unemployment, as idleness oftentimes contributes to creating a convenient breeding ground for the phenomena of extremism, violence and criminal activities, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) has decided to hold a one-day workshop in a bid to discern and analyze the real conditions of the labor markets and the problem of unemployment in the GCC countries, as well as identify reliable sources of information in connection with these issues. The workshop will strive to bring out the structural characteristics that underlie these issues, along with setting forth an objective evaluation of the policies deployed by the GCC governments in coming to grips with unemployment and proposing a set of feasible recommendations likely to stem out this phenomenon.
Participants at the workshop will include a distinguished pool of university professors, economic experts, GCC economic and labor policy-makers, as well as a number of private-sector operators who are often accused of being reluctant to employ national workers.
There is no doubt that the media today assumes a vital role at both national and international levels, particularly in light of the sweeping information technology and telecommunications revolution occuring in the region as a result of globalization.
In the context of the world’s new realities, the GCC media has undergone momentous developments since the 1990"s. The major transformations came about mainly due to the convergence of domestic and external factors. At the domestic level, the GCC countries witnessed huge socio-economic developments as a direct result of the oil boom. Politically, Gulf societies became more open, particularly in the post-Second Gulf War era. At the global level, the increasing flow of information transcending national borders has been buttressed by the mushrooming number of satellite TV channels, both Arab and foreign. In fact, satellite televisions have been a driving force in fostering the GCC media. However, the new environment confronts the Gulf media with real and daunting challenges.
In view of these epoch-changing developments, the GCC countries established a number of satellite TV channels. The local press, for its part, undertook a facelift of both its form and content. The private sector, too, found its way into the media field. Privately-owned TV channels, such as mbc and Al-Arabia, came into being, taking advantage of the modern infrastructure the emirate of Dubai established in Dubai Media City. In retrospect, the Doha-based Al-Jazeera channel seems to have inaugurated a turning-point chapter, not only for the Gulf media, but also for its wider Arab counterpart. Indeed, Al-Jazeera adopted new broadcasting technologies and addressed issues hitherto regarded as taboos, which incensed many Arab governments, including the GCC States’.
In its sustained drive to keep track of and analyze the political, economic, social, cultural and media developments that unravel across the GCC countries, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) will hold a workshop entitled ‘New Trends in the Gulf Media Between Domestic Needs and External Challenges’ in a bid to provide an academic platform for the discussion and evaluation of the myriad developments that have recently unfolded in the media field in the GCC countries.
Debates at the workshop will cover the priorities on the GCC States’ media agendas, production techniques used in the press, satellite TV channels and electronic media.
At the level of media content, participants at the workshop will debate the nature and implications of the new trends in the content of TV programs and news coverage, shedding special light on the coverage conducted by such prestigious GCC TV channels as Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabia and Abu Dhabi TV during the war against Afghanistan in 2001 and the war against Iraq in 2003.
Additionally, participants will look into the various challenges emanating from the external environment, particularly the direct and indirect pressures Washington has been exerting on the Gulf media.
In parallel with the debates on the major issues that concern the Gulf media, participants will elaborate a number of feasible suggestions likely to enhance palpably the professionalism of the GCC media.
Participants at the workshop come from diverse media professions. They include editors-in-chief of a number of Gulf newspapers and magazines, directors of GCC TV channels and radio stations, in addition to a select number of scholars, media experts and PR specialists.
We hope that the diverse range of participants will offer the chance of understanding the multiple aspects of the GCC media from comparative perspectives.
The Gulf Research Center had the pleasure of hosting Nato Deputy Secretary-General Alessandro Minuto Rizzo who lectured on Nato looking for partners in the Middle East
During the past few years, the GCC states (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) have all taken steps, albeit different in nature and strength, on the path towards political reform.
For the GCC states, political reform has been the result of several internal developments, including the hard economic and financial conditions, the emergence of new political movements demanding political reform, and the rise to power of new leaders, as was the case in Qatar and Bahrain. In addition, external factors, especially the mounting external pressure after the September 11 attacks, have created additional incentives for political reform.
Given the importance of the subject of political reform in the GCC states and the important economic and strategic position these countries occupy on the world stage due to their oil wealth, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) are co-organizing a workshop under the title "Political Reform in the GCC States: Current Situation and Future Prospects." A number of experts, researchers, and political activists from the GCC States, the US, and Europe will participate in this event.
Objectives of the Workshop
It seems as though the Gulf region is destined to witness a new war every decade. After the First Gulf War 1980-1988, the Second Gulf War broke out in 1990 after Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait. On March 20, 2003, the US and Britain launched the Third Gulf War under the slogan of "Operation Iraqi Freedom." Some of the declared objectives of the war were deposing the regime of Saddam Hussain, disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction and the establishment of a democratic regime in Baghdad that would serve as a model for the whole region. This war represents in one way or another an extension of the previous two Gulf Wars. This is true because it is not possible to understand its dimensions and ramifications without taking into account the First and Second Gulf Wars as well as the repercussions of the events of September 11.
Regardless of the direct results of this war, it will have immediate and future security, economic, political, cultural and social consequences not only on the Gulf region, but also on the Arab world and the Middle East, in addition to its current and potential ramification on the international system, the structure of the international relations and the future of the United Nations.
Accordingly, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) is keen on initiating a comprehensive and integrated research program on current conditions and potential developments in Iraq. It includes conducting studies, reports, and analysis, as well as organizing workshops, forums and conferences to discern and analyze the background of this war, its various dimensions, present-day realities and future scenarios, current and potential effects and ramifications. Within this context the GRC produces and publishes a series of specialized and academic studies entitled " Iraq Studies."
Since the Gulf region is the battlefield and the one to be most affected by its consequences, the GRC took the initiative to organize this forum to discern and analyze the effects of this war on the Gulf region including Iraq and Iran, as well as to present some ideas and suggestions on how the GCC states could deal with the adverse consequences of this war.
Opening Speech
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman, Gulf Research Center
9:30 AM
Ladies and Gentlemen,
First of all I would like to welcome you all to the Gulf Research Center (GRC) and express my pleasure and appreciation for your participation in this important workshop under the title “A year after the War and Occupation: Current Situation in Iraq and its Ramifications on the GCC States” organized by this center. This event coincides with the first anniversary of the fall of Baghdad and the occupation of Iraq in a manner unprecedented in the modern history of the fall of capitals.
The Center is honored by the participation of such a distinguished elite of politicians, thinkers, experts and researchers in this workshop. Undoubtedly, your contribution will enrich the workings of the workshop, especially during the cloudy and confused situation of the current Iraqi scene. This situation strongly indicates that the war in Iraq is by no means over, even a year after the fall of Baghdad and Saddam’s regime. It also indicates that the future of Iraq is still open to every possibility.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
History may one day reveal the background and secrets of the fall of Baghdad and the swift and surprising collapse of the previous regime. The fact is that the US-UK war on Iraq created a new situation in the Gulf region. The disappearance of Saddam’s regime and the US-UK occupation of Iraq represent, in fact, a new era in the modern history of Iraq, an era that is still emerging, an era characterized by obscurity and ambiguity. Various factors contributed to the current situation; the incoherent US policy in Iraq and the regional meddling in Iraqi affairs. Let us not forget the divisions and disagreements among major Iraqi parties regarding core issues connected to the future of the political system and the nature of the state. Though the provisional constitution has been signed, this is the current situation on the ground. All these factors will inevitably pose several grave questions and raise many issues regarding the future of Iraq.
Undoubtedly matters are seriously complicated by the continuous deterioration of the security situation in Iraq, despite the presence of more than 200,000 foreign soldiers on its soil. There is the continuous deterioration of the economic and social conditions of the Iraqi people (construction efforts are obviously limping along); and the dismantling of the Iraqi state institutions by the occupying forces. There are even more dangerous complications caused by those people trying to instigate sectarian and ethnic conflicts threatening to drag the country into civil war.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Under the previous regime, Iraq had been a major player in many regional and international problems and thorny issues since the late 1970s. Iraq waged a long war with Iran during most of the 1980s and in 1990 Iraq brought about the calamity of the Second Gulf War by occupying the state of Kuwait. It was an unprecedented event in the history of the Arab order. This act has had catastrophic ramifications on the Arab order, Arab security, intra-Arab relations and Arab relations with the international powers, especially with the US.
The fact is that what happened and is still happening, in post-Saddam Iraq, has concrete, possible, direct and indirect consequences on the Gulf region in particular and on the Arab and international orders in general. These developments have taken place regardless of the American agenda and objectives in this latest war against Iraq and must be considered as partly connected to oil and the imperial ambitions of the US under a neo-conservative administration. In addition, there are also repercussions for the global role of the US and the US presidential elections this November.
Accordingly, the GRC has been keen to organize this workshop in order to appraise and analyze the economic, security and political consequences of the war and occupation for the GCC states. We aim moreover to develop views and suggestions regarding possible policies the GCC states might adopt in dealing with the Iraqi issue. These suggestions would be framed in a manner that would contribute to the independence of Iraq, its territorial integrity and stability and would be conducive to achieving stability and security in the Gulf region. Indeed it is not possible to achieve stability in the Gulf without a stable Iraq nor is any regional security feasible without including Iraq in any such future security arrangements.
The real challenge that faces all the concerned parties is how to set Iraq on the path to security, stability and democracy.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a known fact that Iraq is a central element in the Gulf region given its location, history and demographic weight. Iraq also enjoys a very important position in the global oil market as it possesses the second largest oil reserves in the world. For these reasons, it is important to follow and understand Iraqi events. The other Gulf countries cannot escape the repercussions of Iraq slipping into a civil war that would endanger its territorial integrity. In this eventuality, Iraq could become a breeding ground for extremism, violence and terrorism. Whenever there is a power vacuum at the center, extremist and terrorist groups will move to fill it. The examples of Somalia and Afghanistan are still vivid in our minds. It is, therefore, very important to explore the requirements and conditions necessary to save Iraq from this horrible destiny.
The war and its aftermath have moreover created a new security environment in the Gulf region as Iraq has been temporarily from the regional power equation. Besides, Washington"s military priorities in the GCC states have changed markedly and the US intends to build permanent military bases in Iraq. The transfer of power to the Iraqis does not necessarily mean halting the deterioration of the security situation in the country, especially now that the new Spanish government intends to withdraw its troops from Iraq. Other countries may follow suit. All this raises several questions about the future of security arrangements in the region especially;
Dear guests,
The possible ramifications of the current situation in Iraq on the economic conditions and domestic policies in the GCC states are of no less importance than those of security. Future developments in Iraq may have adverse consequences on the international oil markets which could in their turn affect, in different ways and varying degrees, the oil export dependent economies of the GCC. In addition, there is the issue of debts and reparation that Iraq has to pay to some of these countries, although part of these debts has been written off by some GCC states. The GCC states moreover are almost unrepresented in the reconstruction process in Iraq, despite having relatively sound economic and commercial capabilities in this regard. It is therefore necessary for the GCC to consider the economic impact on their economies of what is happening in Iraq and how to deal with it.
You may well agree with me that, whatever may be the shape of any future Iraqi political system, whether the right conditions for establishing a democratic system were put in place or whether things deteriorated into internal strife and civil war, you may well agree that in both cases there will be direct and indirect effects on the domestic political conditions in the GCC states. The workshop is therefore presented with the task of discussing these possibilities, identifying their ramifications on the region and thinking of ways to save Iraq and the region from the worst case scenario.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Our region has reached an historic milestone. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that the Arab future hangs in the balance, especially under these continuous crises and problems that the Arab nation is facing in the midst of tremendous international pressures and unprecedented security vulnerability, perhaps the greatest since the creation of the modern Arab order. In addition, there is this wave of foreign initiatives presented under the cover of reforming current Arab conditions.
Regardless of the American proposals regarding reform in the Arab world, one should admit that there are several faults and drawbacks that necessitate reform. If the general stance is to reject the reform plans imposed from outside, then it becomes important that the Arab reaction should be by to take some serious action. Arabs should endorse and implement their own reform plans, deal with the roots of the problems, according to well-defined plans. Their actions should not be temporary and arbitrary reactions to proposals presented by other parties. At the same time, rejecting foreign reform plans should not be used as an excuse to maintain the status quo that has led to stagnation and widespread dissatisfaction in several Arab countries.
Given these conditions, it is vital to develop an Arab strategy towards Iraq. The GCC states should take the initiative in this regard as the future of Iraq will have ramifications on the entire Gulf region and the Arab world in general. Failure to act promptly and effectively to plan their own future will motivate others to plan it in a way that serves their own outside interests.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The GRC"s interest in the Iraqi question is not a temporary one. It is an interest stemming from the center"s mission and goals. Iraq is a central protagonist in the Gulf region and current events in Iraq are considered to be of grave importance in determining the future of the whole region.
Accordingly, the center is issuing a specialized academic series entitled "Iraqi Studies," both in Arabic and English, publishing serious academic contributions that deal with Iraqi issues on domestic, regional, international and foreign affairs. The center also dedicates part of its annual report, published every January, to Iraq. Besides, the center has prepared, published and translated several studies and reports on Iraq, the most important of which is a paper that presents an economic strategy and a proposed policy for the GCC states to follow in their dealings with Iraq. All these works are available on the center"s website at www.grc.to.
Emanating from our belief in the vital importance of exploring the views of the Iraqis on the future of their country and since most of the previous opinion polls in Iraq have been carried out by foreign parties or by Iraqis for the benefit of the occupation authorities, the center took the probably unprecedented initiative of conducting a large opinion poll in Iraq on some of the current Iraqi issues. The research team has finished its field work in Baghdad and at the moment the data is being entered and analyzed. The center will post the full results on its web site and will also publish them in book form.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Once again I would like to welcome you to the GRC, wishing you a pleasant stay and much success in this workshop. I am certain that your sound contributions and rich discussion will help explore the future of current events in Iraq. It will also help develop practical suggestions on how to deal with them in order to create a better future for Iraq and save the region from any adverse outcome as a result of unwanted scenarios. Iraq is a very rich country with its very own natural and human resources that will enable it to rise again after years of persecution, wars, embargo and suffering.
The center welcomes your outstanding academic contributions that will be presented to our readers in Arabic and English. These contributions will also be available on our web site at www.grc.to.
Finally, I would like to wish you all the best of luck and success and I look forward to meeting you all again at future events.
Thank you.
The Board of the German Business Council Dubai in partnership with the
Gulf Research Center, Dubai, had the pleasure to introduce Prof. Dr. Peter Scholl-Latourwho lectured on "A New Balance of Power in the Middle East
The Social Sciences and Humanities Forum SSHF is a GRC initiative that aims to pull together educational & government institutions, as well as concerned individuals, to form a strategic vision for higher education & research in the Gulf region. Each year the HSSF will tackle one aspect of social science in the Gulf by providing a platform for discussion. The findings & recommendations of the forum will be forwarded to decision makers in the GCC in the hope that it will contribute to improving the value of education for students and instructors alike.
The "Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities in the Arabian Gulf" sought to provide a forum for intellectuals and researchers drawn from scientific and cultural organizations, institutes and research centers, based in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Debates revolved essentially on the need to define a clear and common vision for a more sustainable higher educational system. Themes for discussion covered the whole spectrum of the fields of social sciences and humanities, including sociology, psychology, philosophy, economy, business administration, media, politics, education, history, geography, languages, and law.
Professor Weidenfeld Director of the Center for Applied Policy Research (C·A·P), Munich and the Member of the Executive Board of the Bertelsmann Foundation conducted round table discussion "The Future of the enlarged European Union and its neighborhood"
Almost all political observers agree that the US-led war on Iraq, or what has come to be known in IR literature as the Third Gulf War, has exposed the modest role the European Union plays in the Gulf region. The Gulf region, as Europe"s main source of oil, certainly assumes special strategic importance for the European economy. It is, in a limited but highly significant sense, part and parcel of Europe"s national security zone. The US-British war against Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein culminated in a de facto occupation whose duration remains unpredictable, to say the least. The only sure development is the marked expansion of the US role in the Gulf region, which began to consolidate itself in the wake of the Second Gulf War executed by a US-led international coalition to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqi occupation.
Given these critical regional developments and the mutual importance the EU and the GCC states hold for each other and in view of the limited space academic and scientific circles, whether based in Europe or in the Gulf, have allocated to the EU-GCC relationships, the GRC organized a two-day workshop entitled "The EU Role in the Gulf Region." It was held on 7 and 8 January 2004, through which Europe"s role in this delicate part of the world was tackled.
The Discussion of the Gulf Research Center"s Report on the Arabian Gulf Region "The Gulf in a Year - 2003" on 7th January 2004
The scientific method adopted in the report avoids prejudices, considers the region"s typical characteristics, and takes into account the interactions of domestic, regional, and international changes.
The aim is to provide an analytical overview of the year"s key events in or relevant to the Gulf region for all those interested in knowledge about the Gulf region.
The International Institute for Management Development (IMD) and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) conducted a Forum whcih addressed "Mobilizating the whole organization for Superior Customer Orientation," held on Wednesday, December 17, 2003, at Emirates Towers, Dubai.
Making customer orientation is not just an objective. It is a full management process and a corporate culture. The scheduled one-day conference discussed what ingredients were necessary to mobilize the whole organization for a better customer orientation. These included "hard factors", i.e., management processes that must be put into place, and "soft factors" such as a corporate culture. From a management viewpoint, these included an organizational structure designed around the customers, key performance indicators oriented towards them and human resources policies, including incentives geared towards the customer. The ingredients of a customer culture included empowerment, treating staff as customers and changing the role of a manager to "servant" leader.
The conference was chaired by Jacques Horvits, Professor of Service Strategy, Marketing and Management, IMD. Speakers at the conference included prominent businessmen from regional and multinational corporations, as well as senior government officials, who shared their experiences on these critical issues. Companies who have practically incorporated these factors illustrated each of the levers and ingredients. The participants analyzed how good their companies are in this area through a self-diagnosis tool distributed at the beginning of the meeting.
Lecture and Discussion "The New Economic situation in the region post Iraq war and
European Union role in the region."
In forecasting a bleak demographic character of Europe -- which is likely to see its next generation reduce by half, consequently shrinking its labor force and hurting the economy as well, the Deutsche Bank chief economist identified one crucial and viable area of cooperation with the Middle East. Since the region boasts of an abundant human resource base, Europe and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could work towards demographic compatibility. EU enlargement by roping in Eastern European countries is no solution for the future demographic imbalance; apart from being the hub of energy suppliers, the Middle East has demographic strength too.
Wednesday, 22th October 2003
7:30 PM Dubai World Trade Center 33rd Floor
Lecture and discussion "The Arab Gulf and International Relations: Past, Present and Future"
Based on the premise that dialogue is the essence of life, Professor Fred Halliday suggested that the future of the Arabian Gulf would depend on the way the evolving politico-socio-economic changes are managed. The long-term challenge in the region, in his opinion, is to ensure a working relationship between the Arab Gulf countries and Iran , and especially between the three big regional players Saudi Arabia , Iran and Iraq .
He also suggested that conflicts in the region are not based on historical struggles as much as being rooted in nationalism the Iran-Iraq struggle was essentially a result of a clash between anti-Persian and anti-Arab sentiments...
Monday, 20th October 2003
6:30 PM Dubai Chamber of Commerce
Lecture and Discussion "German Foreign Policy and the Middle East"
The muse for the lecture was the observation made by the World Economic Forum: "Today, the Middle East and the world at large stand together at a crossroad. The direction history takes in the coming months will determine the way we live and the way the global community is organised. Recent political events and the ongoing spread of globalisation have created an environment in which governments and society are being called upon to adjust their political, economic and social structures.... "
Leading scholars, diplomats and political commentators are convening to discuss the Legal status of intervention, preservation of state sovereignty, and nature and powers of post conflict mandate authorities, with reference to the current situation in Iraq. The following issues and ideas will be considered over the six sessions of the workshop:
• Lessons of the US-led war on Iraq
• Protecting civilians and infrastructure, Rule of law (law enforcement,
justice system, human rights) Civilian Policing.
• Crisis management & Humanitarian assistance mechanisms
• Financing crisis management – division of labor between Arab states
• Role of NGOs & assistance task teams the prospects for an Arab Joint
Logistical Center
• Arab Humanitarian Information Center.
A United States led attack on the government of Iraq looks almost inevitable. The only way a large-scale invasion of Iraq by US troops could possibly be avoided is either if a section of the Republican Guard stages a pre-emptive coup, the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein dies or if the government of Iraq agrees to United Nations demands for the supervised destruction of its remaining weapons of mass destruction capability. For different reasons none of these options looks very likely. The US alternative will be a short but intensive air war of up to three weeks, followed by an invasion of up to 350,000 troops from Kuwait and Turkey.
It goes without saying that a large-scale military operation to depose the regime of Saddam will have huge ramifications not only on Iraq, but also on all the countries of the region. To shed light on the possible adverse consequences, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) in cooperation and coordination of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IIS) held a workshop at the GRC office in Dubai, 16-17 February 2003, and discussed the most important ramifications related to the US military intervention and changing the Iraqi regime on the Gulf countries especially the direct impact on their internal policies, the economic and social conditions. Distinguished scholars and experts in the affairs of the region also discussed the legal, political and administrative aspects of this intervention and their effects on the sovereignty of the State. They also stressed the importance of the need to maintain law and order and to prevent acts of violence against the followers of the regime. They also noted the important role to be played by international organizations, non-governmental organisations and human rights groups to prevent abusing the principle of intervention.
The economic and strategic importance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, have significantly enhanced the importance of the issues of security and stability in these states and rendered them pivotal not only to the involved countries, but also to regional and international parties, especially the United States which is now the only superpower in the aftermath of the Cold War, and other countries which mainly depend on the Gulf oil.
In spite of the fundamental changes and developments which have taken place in the Gulf region since the late seventies of the twentieth century such as the Islamic revolution in Iran, the First Gulf War between Iraq and Iran which lasted for about eight years, and the Second Gulf War which broke out after the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait in August 1990, and its adverse ramifications on the region, in spite of all that the GCC states managed, in varying degrees, to maintain their political stability as indicated by the perpetuation of the hereditary regimes, relatively smooth succession in most of these countries, low level violence indices as compared to most Arab countries and ministerial durability. Such political stability is based to a considerable extent also on many factors related to the oil boom, substantial oil revenues and the distributive welfare policies which led to the emergence of rentier states and consequently asserted the sources of traditional legitimacy as represented by the family, the tribe and religion as well as the interest of the ruling elites in preserving these sources, in addition to the weak political opposition groups and their lack of interest in the policies governing the internal security in these countries. The keen interest of some foreign forces particularly the United States in protecting the ruling regimes and maintaining their stability after the security agreements which the GCC states, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, signed with the United States have also contributed to their security and political stability.
On the other hand, the GCC states are facing many current and potential, internal and external sources of political instability. The Dubai-based Gulf Research Center (GRC) and the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) held a workshop on the most important external factors and their potential ramifications on political stability in the GCC states.
These external, regional and international, factors that could potentially destabilize the region mainly include: The current conditions and future developments in Iraq, the condition in Iran and the prospects of the internal conflict between the reformists and conservatives, the current conditions in Yemen, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the conditions in the Indian Sub-continent, the recent developments in Afghanistan, oil prices in the world market, the US policy towards the Gulf, the US war on terrorism and the information and communications revolution.
The workshop sought to find answers to many important questions which mainly include:
